An Overview of Business Tendency Surveys

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An Overview of Business Tendency Surveys

• Richard Vincent
• Richard Evans
• Statistics Canada
• International Conference on Establishment Surveys
• Montréal
• June, 2007

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Outline

• Introduction
• Global Overview of Business Tendency Surveys
• 3. Business Tendency Surveys in France
• 4. Business Tendency Survey in Canada
• 5. Conclusion

3
Introduction

• Key Question
• These surveys have many commonalities, yet there
  are striking differences.
• Why?

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Qualities of Business Tendency Surveys

• Relevant
• Timely
• Qualitative, but based on informed opinion
• Forward looking (focus on next period)
• Comparable

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Global Overview of BTSs
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Global Overview of BTSs

• Industrial Coverage of BTSs
• Europe
• Manufacturing
• Construction
• Retail Trade
• Other Service Industries
• Canada
• Manufacturing
• Traveller Accommodation
• Purchasing Managers (USA, Europe)
• Manufacturing
• Services

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Global Overview of BTSs

• Content
• Future / current business situation re
• Production
• Prices
• Labour market

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Business Tendency Surveys BTS in Canada

• Manufacturing BCS
• Since 1976
• Quarterly
• Stratified sample of 10,000 est.
• 2 pages
• Three sections
• Impediments
• Current conditions (last quarter)
• Future conditions (next quarter)

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BTS in Canada

• Manufacturing BCS
• Well respected as leading indicator
• Two financial institutions repackage
  manufacturing BCS and release
• Much media attention
• Can influence value of Cdn

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BTS in Canada
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BTS in Canada

• Manufacturing BTSs and the Canadian Statistical
  System
• Not required as input into System of National
  Accounts
• Considered during analysis of composite leading
  indicators
• Supported by Department of Finance and Bank of
  Canada

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BTS in Canada

• Quarterly Business Conditions Survey for the
  Traveller Accommodation industry
• Developed in partnership with Canadian Tourism
  Commission Ontario Ministry of Tourism is now
  key supporter
• Released for the first time May 16, 2005 (Q2)
• Stratified sample of 2,500 establishments
• 2 pages, qualitative (comparable to Manufacturing
  BCS)
• Garnered much media coverage
• Used by National Tourism Indicators Composite
  Leading Indicator
• Pilot surveys of BCS for Arts, Heritage,
  Recreation

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BTS in Canada

• Why a BTS on Traveller Accommodation
• Surrogate for tourism sector
• Industry suffers from severe slowdowns and
  shocks at the cusp of the business cycle
• Client interest in
• forward looking indicators/intelligence
• Impediments
• Evidence based decision making for policy and
  marketing
• Advocacy e.g., media attention
• Policy making
• Used by National Tourism Indicators Composite
  Leading Indicator

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BTS in Canada Why new survey?Tourism demand in
Canada by product
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BTS in Canada-- Why new survey?Change in
Traveller Accommodation Revenues, Yr/Yr
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BTS in CanadaWhy new survey?
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BTS in Canada Results Traveller
AccommodationOutlook for Occupancy RatesBalance
of Opinion (0neutral)
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BTS in Canada Results Traveller
AccommodationOutlook for Average Daily Room
RateBalance of Opinion (0neutral)
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BTS in Canada Results Traveller
AccommodationBusiness ImpedimentsQ4 2006
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BTS in Canada Results Traveller
AccommodationPublic Health and Safety no longer
a worry
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BTS in Canada Results Traveller
AccommodationCanadas reputation increasingly
important
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BTS in France

• Institut national de la statistique et des etudes
  economiques (Insee)
• Extensive array of surveys
• Since 1952

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BTS in FranceSome features

• 1-3 pages
• 1000 to 5000 respondents
• Results in overall balance of opinion significant
  to 2 to 3 points

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BTS in France Some features (cont)

• Sectoral surveys
• Thematic surveys

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BTS in FrancePartial list of Surveys

• LIST HERE

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BTS in FranceExamples

• show very detailed questions on questionnaires

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BTS in FranceExamples (cont)

• show example of outputs

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BTS in FranceExamples (cont)

• show example of European outputs

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(No Transcript)
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Main Differences between Canadian and French BTS
programs

• Different emphasis on production impediments
• Better coverage in France

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Conclusion

• Reasons why Canadian and French BTS programs are
  different
• Different mandates, client demand
• Different pressures to harmonize

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Conclusion

• Different mandates
• Insee has a mandate to forecast GDP
• 2 quarters forward
• Highly regarded
• This generates an internal demand
• Statistics Canada does not
• Different focus
• E.g., complete set of input-output accounts by
  province
• Extensive suite of largely survey-based annual
  surveys to support the latter

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Conclusion

• Different mandates, different priorities
• Canada surveys that produce best possible
  quantitative current indicators for GDP
• Survey-based
• Less financial pressure to use administrative
  data sources
• No influential internal client for qualitative
  BTS
• However, an external client for its traveler
  accommodation survey

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Conclusion

• Different mandates, different priorities (cont)
• France surveys that produce best possible
  qualitative leading indicators for GDP forecasts
• Influential internal client
• All survey-based
• Mandatory
• Current indicators are comparatively less
  important, greater financial pressures to use
  administrative data sources

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Conclusion

• Different international pressures to harmonize
• Why are such differences tolerated?
• No pressures to harmonize in the sense the
  different iterations of the SNA 93 have exercised
  strong harmonizing influence since the 1950s
• Perception that BTS are less important,
  especially by agencies that do not publish
  forecasts
• CIRETs recommendations are not nearly as binding
• There are strong pressures from within the EU
• But Canada is not a member!

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Conclusion

• The Future what would need to change?
• A change in mandate
• International will and desire to compel
  countries to adhere to an international standard
  (in the manner of the SNA)
• Client financial commitment