Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Climate Outlook Forums

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Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Climate Outlook
Forums

• Rupa Kumar Kolli
• WMO

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Emerging Issues in Climate Variability and Change

• Towards Improved Societal Response and
  Sustainable Development
• Relevant climate information is expected to
  enhance policy and decision-making
• Climate data
• Climate analysis and monitoring capabilities
• Specialized climate forecast products Must
  become user centric
• Climate risk modelling tools Critical for
  decision making
• There is significant diversity in supply and
  demand of climate information at national level
• Needs, requirements and capabilities of providers
• Needs and requirements of the users related to
  policy and decision-making

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Climate Adaptation Input Needs

• Climate Information
• Historical Data on Variability and Change
• Climate Predictions
• Climate Scenarios

Sectoral Information Technological options Supply
demand situations ..
Physical Information Geophysical
information Social development scenarios..
Economic Information
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WMOs strategy for supporting societal response
to climate variability and change

• Science and monitoring
• Systematic observation
• Climate modelling
• Climate predictions and projections, including
  their interpretation
• Understanding human-climate interactions
• Operational frameworks for provision of climate
  information
• Global
• Regional
• National
• Awareness and capacity building
• Methods and Tools (e.g., Regional Climate Outlook
  Forums)
• Technological and know-how packages, including
  training on data rescue and management
• User liaison in climate-sensitive sectors
• Enhanced partnerships within International
  Framework (e.g., UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme,
  Bali Action Plan, etc.)

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Climate Prediction Framework
Climate Change.
Centuries
Scenarios
Decades
Anthropogenic Forcing
Climate Variability
Years
Outlook Prediction
Seasons
Guidance
Months
Boundary Conditions
Threats Assessments
2 Weeks
Weather
1 Week
Forecasts
Initial Conditions
Days
Watches
Hours
Warnings Alert Coordination
Minutes
Energy
Health
State/Local Planning
Recreation
Commerce
Space Applications
Ecosystem
Hydropower
Protection of Life Property
Environment
Fire Weather
Water Management
Agriculture
Water Resource Planning
Transportation
Adapted from NOAA
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Global Producing Centres of LRF

• In 2006, nine centres making global seasonal
  forecasts were designated as WMO Global Producing
  Centres (GPCs)
• GPCs adhere to defined standards aiding
  consistency and usability of output
• a fixed forecast production cycle
• a standard set of forecast products
• WMO-defined verification standards (for
  retrospective forecasts)
• GPCs designated Beijing, ECMWF, Exeter,
  Melbourne, Montreal, Moscow (pending), Seoul,
  Tokyo, Toulouse, Washington
• Access to all GPCs can be found through WMO page
  http//www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/prod
  ucers_forecasts.html
• A comprehensive set of standard verification
  measures, with which to communicate the skill of
  forecasts, has been defined (the WMO Standard
  Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts
  SVSLRF)

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Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

• RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by
  CBS and CCl, to perform regional-scale climate
  functions, including
• Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring
• Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the
  region
• Data services
• Climate Applications
• Training and capacity building
• Research and Development
• RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of
  NMHSs, who will deliver all Warnings and
  national-scale products
• Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by
  Regional Associations, based on regional needs
  and priorities

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Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

• A key component of WMO Climate Information and
  Prediction Services (CLIPS) project activities.
• First established in October 1996 at the Workshop
  on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in
  Southern Africa (Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe).
• Gained momentum as a regional response to the
  major 19971998 El Niño event.
• RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread
  worldwide.
• WMO and a number of national, regional and
  international organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI,
  Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have supported
  their growth and expansion.

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Existing RCOFs worldwide
(http//www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/out
looks/climate_forecasts.html)
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RCOF Concept

• Climate information including predictions/outlooks
  could be of substantial benefit to many parts of
  the world in adapting to and mitigating the
  impacts of climate variability and change.
• RCOFs have the responsibility to produce and
  disseminate a regional assessment (using a
  consensus-based approach) of regional climate for
  the upcoming season.
• Built into the RCOF process is a regional
  networking of the climate service providers and
  user-sector representatives.
• RCOFs bring together national, regional and
  international climate experts, on an operational
  basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based
  on input from NMHSs, regional institutions,
  Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global
  Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs)
  and other climate prediction centres.
• Through interaction with sectoral users,
  extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs
  assess the likely implications of the outlooks on
  the core socio-economic sectors in the region and
  explore potential applications of these outlooks.
  
• RCOF sessions feed into national forums to
  develop detailed national-scale climate outlooks
  and risk information including warnings for
  communication to decision-makers and the public.

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RCOF Process (1/3)

• Meetings of the regional and international
  climate experts to develop a consensus for the
  regional climate outlook, typically in a
  probabilistic form
• The Forum proper, that involves both climate
  scientists and representatives from the user
  sectors, for identification of impacts and
  implications, and the formulation of response
  strategies
• Training programmes on seasonal climate
  prediction to strengthen the capacity of the
  national and regional climate scientists
• Special outreach sessions involving sector
  specialists as well as media experts to develop
  effective communications strategies.

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RCOF Process (2/3)

• Determine the critical time for development of
  climate prediction for the region in question
• Assemble a group of experts
• Large scale prediction specialists,
• regional and local climate applications and
  prediction/downscaling specialists,
• stakeholders representative of climate-sensitive
  sectors
• Review current large scale (global and regional)
  climate anomalies and the most recent predictions
  for their evolution
• Review current climate conditions and their
  impacts at local, national and regional levels,
  and national-scale predictions

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RCOF Process (3/3)

• Considering all factors, produce a climate
  outlook with related output (e.g. maps of
  temperature and precipitation anomalies) that
  will be applied and fine-tuned by NMHSs in the
  region to meet national needs
• Discuss applications of the outlook and related
  climate information to climate-sensitive sectors
  in the region consider practical products for
  development by NMHSs
• Develop strategies to effectively communicate the
  information to decision-makers in all affected
  sectors
• Critique the session and its results
• document achieved improvements to the process and
  any challenges encountered,
• Establish steps required to further improve the
  process for subsequent sessions.

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RCOF Success

• The RCOF process has facilitated a better
  understanding of the links between the climate
  system and socio-economic activities.
• An increasing demand for climate services has
  been recorded in many parts of the world as a
  result of these developments.
• Awareness has been created that climate
  information, including short-range climate
  predictions, is an essential element in
  mitigating against the impacts of climate
  variations.
• RCOFs have fostered interactions and exchange of
  information between the climate scientists and
  users of climate information.

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RCOFs and Food Security Outlooks

• Regional agriculture and food security outlooks
  are now regularly produced based on the climate
  outlooks after the RCOFs in some regions.
• For example, the climate outlook in the Greater
  Horn of Africa in the form of precipitation for
  March to May 2008 has been used by Famine Early
  Warning Systems Network (FEWS-NET), to prepare
  the Food Security Outlook for March to July 2008.

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RCOFs and Public Health

• Many diseases are indirectly or directly
  associated with climate. Vector-borne diseases
  are sensitive to changes in meteorological
  parameters such as rainfall, temperature, wind
  and humidity. These include malaria, dengue and
  Rift Valley Fever (RVF). Extreme climate events
  can trigger rampant outbreaks of waterborne
  diseases such as cholera and typhoid in areas
  where they are not common.
• Some efforts are now being made to provide
  warning of changes in epidemic risk by
  integrating rainfall, temperature and other
  non-climate information.
• For example, Malaria Outlook Forums (MALOFs) are
  now regularly held in association with RCOFs in
  southern Africa and the Greater Horn of Africa.
• The information developed jointly by climate and
  health experts in these sessions, together with
  information on population vulnerability, food
  security, immuno-suppression and adequacy of
  control coverage, gives the health community a
  longer lead-time over which to optimize the
  allocation of the resources available to combat
  malaria.

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WMO and RCOFs

• WMO assists developing countries hold and benefit
  from these forums through CLIPS
• facilitating training workshops,
• coordinating the collection and dissemination of
  training materials,
• capacity building initiatives including some
  initial (limited) financial support, and
• coordination of special applications to sectors
  (e.g. health and agriculture)
• Regional institutions (e.g. DMCs, ACMAD, CRRH,
  CIIFEN) play key roles in the organization and
  overall implementation of these forums
• NMHSs, the regions and the users of the products
  must contribute to the sustainability of COFs in
  the regions demonstrate utility of the forums
  and value of the products to those who need the
  information
• Research capacities at the regional level need to
  be enhanced, to assess the forecast skills as
  well as to work towards their improvement
• Media has an important role to play in RCOF
  process, which needs to be factored in.

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Climate Change and RCOFs

• RCOFs worldwide have been set up so far with the
  main focus on seasonal prediction.
• However, the same RCOF mechanisms can be
  effectively expanded to cater to the needs of
  developing and disseminating regional climate
  change information products.
• Such initiatives are already being taken up by
  some RCOFs (e.g., Greater Horn of Africa)
• Regional assessments of observed and projected
  climate change, including the development of
  downscaled climate change scenario products for
  impact assessments, can be included in the
  product portfolio of RCOFs

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WCC-3

• The WCC-3 is expected to provide direction to the
  world community to address the risks associated
  with climate such as droughts, floods, heat
  waves, famine and disease outbreaks, among
  others, as a step towards disaster risk reduction
  and adaptation to climate change through improved
  climate prediction science and information
  services together with their integration into
  decision-making.
• Conference will
• Set the stage for nations and organizations to
  identify the needs of end users who can benefit
  from improved climate predictions and information
  services
• Address the state of knowledge and the capacity
  to mobilize climate science globally to advance
  seasonal to decadal predictions.
• Negotiate the principles and discuss the global
  infrastructure and mechanisms to share new
  advances in science and information for the
  benefit of end users.

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Global Climate Prediction Framework
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Concluding Remarks

• Climate-related risk management requires
  multi-disciplinary collaborations and
  cross-disciplinary exchange of information, which
  can be achieved through interfacing institutes
  and processes.
• In many regions, there is limited use of climate
  information for sustaining economic development.
  It is important to find ways for all countries to
  cope with climate variability through improved
  access to climate information and prediction
  products and the use of risk management
  techniques.
• RCOFs have fostered interactions and exchange of
  information between the climate scientists and
  users of climate information.
• A global framework is critical to ensure smooth
  flow of user-targeted climate information from
  global to local scales.
• WMO is looking forward to a major step forward in
  providing climate information for decision making
  as an overarching outcome of the forthcoming
  WCC-3.

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Thank You

• RKolli_at_wmo.int