GREATER HORN OF AFRICA CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

1
GREATER HORN OF AFRICA CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

• By
• Prof Laban Ogallo
• ICPAC

2
INTRODUCTION

• Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
  were initiated at a meeting held at Victoria
  Falls, Zimbabwe 1996 and gained momentum as a
  regional response to the major El Nino event of
  1997/98. The first Greater Horn of Africa Climate
  Outlook Forum (COF1) was held at Holiday inn,
  Nairobi, Kenya in February 1998. Since then,
  ICPAC has continued to hold Regional climate
  outlook forums before the beginning of the major
  rainfall seasons, (March-May and September -
  December seasons).

3
Cont.

• The forums have become the main regional
  mechanism for the formulation and dissemination
  of seasonal consensus climate forecasts to
  policymakers and other users, thus linking
  Climate Prediction and Science to the users. The
  COFs bring together operational climate
  scientists and the users to formulate climate
  guidance, their potential impacts and mitigation
  strategies. The involvement of users in COFs has
  been an explicit component of the forum process
  for dissemination of the forecasts and feedback
  on their usefulness.

4
(No Transcript)
5
ICPAC Ocean Indices
6
(No Transcript)
7
Current SST Anomalies
8
ENSO Prediction
9
Greater Horn of Africa Consensus Climate Outlook
for September to December 2006
10
Summary

• There is general agreement among the climate
  scientists that a weak to moderate El Niño is
  likely to develop over the equatorial Pacific
  Ocean and that such an event would persist into
  early 2007.
• ICPAC has been monitoring the status of the
  evolving El Nino and so far there is no need to
  change the COF 18 consensus climate outlook