CS 577a

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The Future of Software Processes
CS 577a October 27, 2006 Barry Boehm
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Outline

• The Future of Information Technology
• 7 surprise-free trends 2 wild-card trends
• Individual and combined software process
  implications
• Conclusions General SW process implications
• Management, staffing/education, research
• Backup Charts

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The Future of Information Technology

• Seven surprise-free trends
• User/Value focus
• Software Criticality and Dependability
• Rapid, Accelerating Change
• Distribution, Mobility, Interoperability,
  Globalization
• Complex Systems of Systems
• COTS, Open Source, Reuse, Legacy Integration
• Computational Plenty
• Two wild-card trends
• Autonomy Software
• Combinations of Biology and Computing
• Implications for software processes
• Jointly and severally

4
User/Value Focus Trends

• Computerworld panel More focus on user/ownership
  costs and benefits less focus on features and
  license costs
• Technology should adapt to people, not vice versa
• Tension between usability and feature creep
• User-orientation has many challenges
• Emergent needs and priorities IKIWISI, Maslow
• Diversity of people and cultures no OSFA
  solutions
• Group vs. individual performance
• Engineer focus on engineer-usability
• Golden Rule Do unto others as you would have
  others do unto you
• Platinum Rule Do unto others as they would be
  done unto
• IKIWISI Ill know it when I see it OSFA
  one size fits all

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Process Implications User/Value Focus

• Incremental learning vs. reductionist processes
• Usability emphasis in staffing, reviews,
  education
• Participatory design group-oriented
• Stakeholder value-based software engineering
  (VBSE)
• Careful approach to cross-cultural enterprises

6
Diversity of Cultures

• Hall monochromatic (closure) vs. polychromatic
  (concurrency)
• Hofstede individual/group power distance
  masculine/feminine uncertainty avoidance
  long/short-term orientation
• Example Software Capability Maturity Model
• Widely adopted in U.S. culture
• Monochromatic, individual, masculine, short-term
• 17 adoptions out of 380 in Thailand
• Polychromatic, group, feminine, long-term

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Criticality and Dependability Trends

• Software increasingly success-critical to product
  and services
• Provides competitive differentiation,
  adaptability to change
• Dependability is generally not vendors
  top-priority
• The IT industry spends the bulk of its
  resources on rapidly bringing products to
  market. US PITAC Report
• By 2025, there will be a 9/11 magnitude
  software failure
• Major loss of life or collapse of world financial
  system
• This will raise dependability to vendors top
  priority
• Market demand stronger warranties and
  accountability
• Value-based dependability processes and tools
• Avoid bureaucratic solutions
• Reflect all stakeholders value dependencies

8
Rapid Change Trends

• Global connectivity and competition accelerate
  change
• More ripple effects of technology, marketplace
  changes
• Increased need for agility, continuous learning
• Need to balance agility and plan-driven
  dependability
• Decline of THWADI (Thats how weve always done
  it)
• Avoid technical agility, administrative THWADI
• Hybrid agile/plan-driven processes needed for
  larger systems
• Need for incremental processes, methods, tools,
  skills
• Need for pro-active technology, marketplace
  monitoring
• Example Internet spiral
• Education Need to learn how to learn

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The Internet Spiral ProcessRef USAF-SAB
Information Architectures Study, 1994
ApprovedInternetStandard
FullImplementation
Working GroupEvolution
Approved Draft Standard
WidespreadImplementationand Test
Working GroupEvolution
ApprovedProposedStandard
MultipleImplementationand Test
Working GroupEvolution
Equipment
UnapprovedProposedStandard
IESGApproval
IESGApproval
IESGApproval
UnapprovedDraftStandard
UnapprovedInternetStandard
IETF Review
Working GroupReview
IETF Review
Working GroupReview
IETF Review
Working GroupReview
IESG Internet Engineering Steering Group IETF
Internet Engineering Task Force
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Agile and Plan-Driven Home Grounds Five
Critical Decision Factors

• Size, Criticality, Dynamism, Personnel, Culture

Personnel
Personnel
( Level 1B)
( Level 23)
( Level 1B)
( Level 23)
15
40
15
40
20
30
20
30
25
20
25
20
Criticality
Criticality
Dynamism
Dynamism
(Loss due to impact of defects)
(Loss due to impact of defects)
30
10
30
10
( Requirements
-
change/month)
( Requirements
-
change/month)
35
0
35
0
Many
Many
0.3
1.0
Single
Lives
Single
Lives
Essential
Essential
3.0
Life
Life
Discretionary
Discretionary
Funds
Funds
10
Comfort
Comfort
Funds
Funds
30
3
3
Agile
Agile
90
90
10
10
70
70
Plan
Plan
30
30
-
-
driven
driven
50
50
100
100
30
30
300
300
Size
Size
10
10
( of personnel)
( of personnel)
Culture
Culture
( thriving on chaos vs. order)
( thriving on chaos vs. order)
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Large-Company Agile Assimilation Issues

• Scalability of agile methods
• Tacit knowledge (propagation personnel turnover
  5,000 requirements)
• Multi-team coordination
• Avoiding agile stovepipes
• Limitations on freedom of choice
• COTS, interfaces, GUIs, legacy systems
• Traditional business practices
• Contracting earned value systems timekeeping
  waterfall/V-model standard, HR practices
• Inflexible maturity model interpretations
• Customer collocation, access
• Architecture suboptimization on early increments
• Example key performance parameters
• Predictable vs. unpredictable change

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The Future of Information Technology

• Seven surprise-free trends
• User/Value focus
• Software Criticality and Dependability
• Rapid, Accelerating Change
• Distribution, Mobility, Interoperability,
  Globalization
• Complex Systems of Systems
• COTS, Open Source, Reuse, Legacy Integration
• Computational Plenty
• Two wild-card trends
• Autonomy Software
• Combinations of Biology and Computing
• Implications for software processes
• Jointly and severally

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Distribution/Globalization Trends

• Global connectivity drives market opportunities
• Network economics, economies of scale
• Need for multi-cultural products, virtual
  collaboration
• Standards-based infrastructure a necessity
• Gradual growth up the protocol stack
• Open-source development largely in infrastructure
  sector
• Challenges feature prioritization, security
  assurance

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Integrated Enterprise Architectures
Federal Enterprise Architectural Framework (FEAF)
DOD Architectural Framework (DODAF)
Zachman Framework
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The Need for Software-intensive Systems of
Systems (SISOS)

• Lack of integration among stovepiped systems
  causes
• Unacceptable delays in service
• Uncoordinated and conflicting plans
• Ineffective or dangerous decisions
• Inability to cope with fast-moving events
• Increasing SISOS benefits
• See first understand first act first
• Network-centric operations coordination
• Transformation of business/mission potential
• Interoperability via Integrated Enterprise
  Architectures

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What does an SISOS look like?Air Traffic Control
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Systems of Systems Processes

• More like adaptive command and control than
  purchasing
• Stabilized plan-driven increments
• Concurrent agile change management of next
  increment
• Value-based reprioritization
• Requires new outsourcing practices and skills
• Change impact analysis, content renegotiation,
  COTS refresh
• New contracting processes and incentives

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Outsourcing Command and Control OODA Loops
Observe, Orient, Decide, Act

• Orient with respect to stakeholders priorities,
  feasibility, risks
• Risk/Opportunity analysis
• Business case/mission analysis
• Prototypes, models, simulations

• Observe new/updated objectives, constraints,
  alternatives
• Usage monitoring
• Competition, technology, marketplace ISR

Operate as current system Accept new system

• Decide on next-cycle capabilities, architecture
  upgrades, plans
• Stable specifications, COTS upgrades
• Development, integration, VV, risk management
  plans
• Feasibility rationale

• Act on plans, specifications
• Keep development stabilized
• Change impact analysis, preparation for next
  cycle (mini-OODA loop)

Life Cycle Architecture Milestone for Cycle
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COTS The Future Is Here

• Escalate COTS priorities for research, staffing,
  education
• Its not all about programming anymore
• New processes required

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COTS-Based Applications Process
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Persistence of Legacy Systems

• Before establishing new-system increments
• Determine how to undo legacy system

1939s Science Fiction World of 2000
Actual World of 2000
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Computational Plenty Process Implications

• New platforms smart dust, human prosthetics
  (physical, mental)
• New applications sensor networks, nanotechnology
• Enable powerful self-monitoring software
• Assertion checking, trend analysis, intrusion
  detection, proof-carrying code, perpetual testing
• Enable higher levels of abstraction
• Pattern programming, programming by example with
  dialogue
• Simpler brute-force solutions exhaustive case
  analysis
• Enable more powerful software tools
• Based on domain, programming, management
  knowledge
• Show-and-tell documentation
• Game-oriented software engineering education

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Wild Cards Autonomy and Bio-Computing

• Great potential for good
• Robot labor human shortfall compensation
• 5 Senses, healing, life span, self-actualization
• Adaptive control of the environment
• Redesigning the world for higher quality of life
• Physically, biologically, informationally
• Great potential for harm
• Loss of human primacy computers propose, humans
  decide
• Overempowerment of humans
• Accidents, terrorism, 1984 revisited
• New failure modes adaptive control instability,
  self-modifying software, commonsense reasoning,
  bio-computer mismatches
• VV difficulties cooperating autonomous agents,
  biocomputing
• Forms and timing of new capabilities still unclear

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Outline

• The Future of Information Technology
• 7 surprise-free trends 2 wild-card trends
• Individual and combined software process
  implications
• Conclusions General SW process implications
• Management, staffing/education, research
• Backup Charts

25
Software Process Management Implications

• Increasing uncertainty requires risk/value-based
  processes
• Concurrent engineering of system goals,
  solutions, plans
• Integration of systems engineering and software
  engineering
• Thoroughly validated for consistency and
  feasibility
• Via prototypes, benchmarks, models, role-playing
• Addressing both quantitative and qualitative
  value factors
• Validation progress becomes a key management
  metric
• Validation shortfalls become risks to be managed
• Criticality and rapid change require balance of
  agile, plan-driven processes
• Plan-driven for foreseeable change, high
  criticality
• Parnas encapsulation of sources of change
• Agile for unforeseeable change
• Continuous learning and adaptation
• Especially in wild-card areas

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Software Staffing and Education Implications

• Programming skills less important outside of
  infrastructure sectors
• More important skills include
• Mix of computer science and applications domain
  skills
• Mix of high-assurance and adaptive skills
• For system development, people/process management
• Evolving COTS and legacy-system integration
  skills
• Integrated software and system engineering skills
  
• Including SW/system engineering economics,
  ergonomics
• Plus outsourcing skills for systems of systems
• Mix of actual and simulated experience attractive
• Most important Learning skills

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Software Process Research Implications I

• Empirically-evolved process technology
• Languages, methods, metrics, models, and tools
• Incremental and ambiguity-tolerant
• Accommodating incomplete, informal, and partial
  specification
• Bridging formality, life-cycle, and culture gaps
• Empirical testbed-based maturity/transition
  acceleration
• Virtual process collaboration support
• Distributed, multi-stakeholder, multi-cultural
• Game technology for process education and
  training
• Acquire and develop the way you train
• Train the way you acquire and develop

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Software Process Research Implications II

• Lean, value-based processes for balancing
  dependability and agility
• Plus scalability, incrementality for systems of
  systems
• General techniques for multi-attribute tradeoff
  analysis
• Associated progress metrics, review criteria,
  early warning indicators
• Integrated technical and acquisition processes
• Supporting balance of dependability and agility
• Applicable to globally-distributed,
  multi-cultural collaboration
• Process capitalization on computational plenty
• Self-monitoring software, higher levels of
  abstraction, knowledge-based tools
• Integration and risk assessment of wild-card
  technologies
• Autonomy, bio-computing

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Backup Charts

• Limitations to software process perfectability
• Value-based software engineering theory and
  process
• Anchor point process milestones

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Limitations Brooks Four Essentials Plus Two

• Complexity larger components, systems of
  systems, attribute tradeoffs
• Conformity evolving standards, external
  system/COTS constraints
• Changeability solution half-life, unpredictable
  certainties
• Conceptuality (invisibility) COTS opacity,
  multi-view consistency
• Community stakeholder proliferation,
  distribution, diversity
• Centrality software failure risks, rice-bowl
  implications

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Limitations Lampsons Continuing SW Crisis

• Moores Law enables the feasibility of new
  applications
• Requiring new and often more complex software
• Easier to handle complexity in software than
  elsewhere
• Good engineering practice to address via software
• Few physical limits on software applications
• Easy to overreach with proposed software
  solutions

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Limitations Converse of Conways Law

• Convays Law (extended to user organizations)
• The structure of a computer program
• Reflects the structure of
• The organizations that build and use it

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Limitations Converse of Conways Law

• Convays Law (extended to user organizations)
• The structure of a computer program
• Reflects the structure of
• The organizations that build and use it
• Converse of Conways Law
• We will learn how to build perfectly functioning
  software
• As soon as
• We learn how to build perfectly functioning
  organizations

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Motivation for Value-Based SE

• Current SE methods are basically value-neutral
• Every requirement, use case, object, test case,
  and defect is equally important
• Object oriented development is a logic exercise
• Earned Value Systems dont track business value
• Separation of concerns SEs job is to turn
  requirements into verified code
• Ethical concerns separated from daily practices
• Valueneutral SE methods are increasingly risky
• Software decisions increasingly drive system
  value
• Corporate adaptability to change achieved via
  software decisions
• System value-domain problems are the chief
  sources of software project failures

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Why Software Projects Fail
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Initial VBSE Theory 41 - with Apurva Jain

• Engine Theory W (stakeholder win-win) What
  values are important?
• Enterprise Success Theorem
• Theory of Justice
• Win-Win Equilibrium and Negotiation
• Four Supporting Theories
• Utility Theory How important are the values?
• Multi-attribute utility Maslow need hierarchy
• Decision Theory How do values determine
  decisions?
• Investment theory game theory statistical
  decision theory
• Dependency Theory How do dependencies affect
  value realization?
• Results chains value chains cost/schedule/perfor
  mance tradeoffs
• Control Theory How to monitor and control value
  realization
• Feedback control adaptive control spiral risk
  control

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Theory W Enterprise Success Theorem And
informal proof

• Theorem Your enterprise will succeed if and
  only if it makes winners of your
  success-critical stakeholders
• Proof of if Everyone that counts is a
  winner. Nobody significant is left to
  complain.
• Proof of only if
• Nobody wants to lose.Prospective losers will
  refuse to participate, or will
  counterattack.The usual result is lose-lose.

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Win-lose Generally Becomes Lose-lose
Actually, nobody wins in these situations
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Initial VBSE Theory 41 Process With a great
deal of concurrency and backtracking
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VBSE Progress and Challenges

• Significant progress on most agenda items
• Economics-Driven Software Engineering Research
  workshops
• EDSER-7 at ICSE 2005 in St. Louis, May 15
• Beijing Software Process Workshop, May 25-27
• Upcoming 20-chapter book covers much of VBSE
  agenda
• Biffl, Aurum, Boehm, Erdogmus, Gruenbacher
  (eds.), VBSE, Springer 2005 (to appear)
• Many Significant Challenges Remain
• Value-based versions of traditional tools and
  techniques
• Applications of value-oriented concepts risk,
  insurance, ROI, real options, finance, domain
  knowledge

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Spiral Anchor Points Enable Concurrent Engineering
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Need Concurrently Engineered Milestone
ReviewsLife Cycle Objectives (LCO) Life Cycle
Architecture Package (LCA)
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Need Concurrently Engineered Milestone
ReviewsLife Cycle Objectives (LCO) Life Cycle
Architecture Package (LCA)2
WWWWWHH Why, What, When, Who, Where, How, How
Much
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LCO (MS A) and LCA (MS B) Pass/Fail Criteria

• A system built to the given architecture will
• Support the operational concept
• Satisfy the requirements
• Be faithful to the prototype(s)
• Be buildable within the budgets and schedules in
  the plan
• Show a viable business case
• Establish key stakeholders commitment to proceed

LCO True for at least one architecture LCA True
for the specific life cycle architecture
All major risks resolved or covered by a risk
management plan
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Spiral Feasibility Rationale

• LCO, LCA reviews not just UML/PowerPoint charts
• Need to show evidence of product and process
  feasibility
• Evidence provided by prototypes, production code,
  benchmarks, models, simulations, analysis
• Sizing and cost/schedule model results for
  process feasibility
• Evidence provided in advance to LCO/LCA review
  team
• Key stakeholders, specialty experts
• Lack of evidence risks destabilizing the process
• Needs coverage by viable risk mitigation plan