Designing Long-Term Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies

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Designing Long-Term Environmentally Compatible
Energy Strategies
Leo Schrattenholzer Environmentally Compatible
Energy Systems (ECS) IIASA
Presentation of IIASA-ECS to Swedish
Scientists Stockholm, 26 April 2001
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Contents

• The ECS Project
• Technological learning
• Studying infrastructures
• Global E3 (energy-economy-environmental) scenarios

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ECS Research Themes

• Overall theme Global energy and environmental
  interactions
• Technology assessment, learning curves, RD
  effectiveness
• Energy infrastructures
• Analysis of historical driving forces and
  scenarios of future global environment-energy-econ
  omy interactions
• Integrated Assessment of climate change
• Collaboration with national and international
  organizations and networks (IEW, EMF)

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ECS Staff
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Learning Curves
Cost ACap? ? Learning parameter 1-2?
Learning rate
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Learning Rates, Numerical Values
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42 Learning Rates of Energy Technologies
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Two Learning Curves for Wind
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Price Pattern for a New Product(IEA, 2000 and
Boston Consulting Group, 1968)
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The Two-Factor Learning Curve
Cost ACap? RD? ? Learning-by-doing
parameter (Cumulative capacity) ?
Learning-by-searching parameter (Knowledge
stock) 1-2? Learning-by-doing rate (LDR) 1-2?
Learning-by-searching rate (LSR)
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Two-Factor Learning Curves Input Data
Solar PV
Wind
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Optimizing RD with ERIS

• Present ERIS based on version by Paul-Scherrer
  Institute (PSI, Barreto and Kypreos)
• Incorporating 2FLCs
• Minimizing total energy system cost
• Investment cost
• Operating and maintenance cost
• Fuel cost
• RD expenditures

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RD Allocated to Wind in 2050 Different LSRs
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Competing Learning Technologies
Changing WIN LDR
Changing WIN LSR
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Infrastructures Research Questions

• What are the prospects for (international)
  Eurasian energy infrastructures given (long-term)
  supply and energy demand scenarios?
• What are costs and benefits of new energy
  infrastructures?
• How effective and efficient are different
  policies (e.g.subsidies, regulation, RD,
  cooperation) for implementation?

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Interregional Gas Trade Flows
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Gas Trade by Pipe in Eurasia
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Kaya Identity
CO2 Population (GDP per capita) (PE
Intensity) (Carbon Intensity) 1.7 1
2 -1
-0.3
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GDP Per Capita Growth in Asia 1960-1997
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Global Bioenergy Potential, High
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IIASA-ECS Modeling Framework
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IPCC SRES Reference Emission Scenarios

• Four scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2)
• For each family one narrative storyline.
• 9 IIASA scenarios (out of a total of 40 scenarios
  from 5 modeling groups).
• Together, the IIASA scenarios cover the full
  range of GHG and sulfur emissions found in the
  literature.

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The A1 StorylineSummary
Future world of (1) very rapid economic growth,
(2) global population that peaks mid-21st
century, and (3) rapid introduction of new and
more efficient technologies. Major underlying
themes are (4) economic and lifestyle convergence
and (5) capacity building, with (6) a substantial
reduction in regional differences in per capita
income. The three A1 scenarios describe
alternative directions of technological change in
the energy system fossil intensive (A1FI),
non-fossil energy sources (A1T), and a balance
across all sources (A1B).
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IIASA SRES Scenario Indicators
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Stabilizing Carbon Concentrations
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Scenario Dependence of GHG Mitigation Costs
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Sustainable-Development Scenarios A Working
Definition

• Basis development that meets the needs of the
  present without compromising the ability of
  future generations to meet their own needs
  (Brundtland Commission, 1987).
• Quantitative criteria
• Economic growth (GDP/capita) sustains throughout
  the whole time horizon.
• Economic inequity among regions is reduced
  significantly over the 21st century.
• reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios of
  exhaustible primary energy carriers do not
  decrease substantially
• short- to medium-term environmental impacts
  (e.g., acidification) are reduced and carbon
  emissions at the end of the 21st century are
  below todays levels

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Global Economic Growth
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Global Primary Energy
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Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy
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Reserve-to-Production Ratios
Reserve-to-production-ratio and global resource
consumption of natural gas and oil in
sustainable-development scenarios. Scenario
estimates for the year 2100 compared to values
for 1990. The long-term R/P ratio for the SD
scenarios either increases or stays near 1990
levels.
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Conclusions

• Policy targets to promote Sustainable Development
• stabilization of population at or below median
  levels
• economic catch-up of the developing world
• increasing the productivity and efficiency of
  energy use and conversion
• promote zero-carbon energy sources
• non-decreasing R/P ratios