Zionsville Community Schools Enrollment Projections 2006 to 2025

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Zionsville Community Schools Enrollment
Projections 2006 to 2025
Indiana Business Research Center Kelley
School of Business Indiana
University April 2006
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Two Most Important FactorsIn Predicting
Enrollment

• The POOL of current children in the
• district ages 5 and 6 that will comprise
• the base of future K and 1 enrollment.
• The number students typically leaving
• or entering a particular grade level in
• subsequent years.
• Year-to-year change is known as a
• Cohort Transition.

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First Grade Forecasts

• First grade enrollment will be comprised of
• Prior years kindergarten cohorts joined by
• A percentage of the prior years kindergarten
  pool that did not attend kindergarten. Typically
  in Zionsville about 95 of the pool will enter
  first grade.
• New 6 year olds moving into the district.

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Example of predicting 2005Grade 1 enrollment

• Start with the pool of 270 children
• aged 1 per Census 2000.
• Add approximately 90 new cohorts from new
  housing.
• Indicates a potential 360 first graders.
• Historical average of 95 of the pool would
  predict 342 first graders.
• Actual enrollment was 349 2 above forecast.

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Transitions to (or from) grades2 to 12 are
easier to predict.

• For Zionsville the transition ratio from
  kindergarten to first grade has averaged 1.24
  with a low (over the past 5 years) of 1.15 and
  high of 1.29. This means
• For every 100 kindergarten students the system
  will have approximately 124 first graders the
• following year.

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Each School District has adistinct transition
fingerprint!
The average kindergarten to first grade
transition ratios for Zionsville and Peer
districts in 2005 was Zionsville
1.29 Carmel 1.12 Hamilton Southeastern
1.23 Westfield 1.15 MSD Washington Twp. 1.30
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These varied entry levels and grade clusters make
each school district somewhat distinct.
Moreover, grade clusters tend to shift over time.
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Building Permits as Indicator
New construction has the single biggest
impact. Over the past 10 years the percentage of
new students per new house has ranged
from 0.56 in 1999 (196 student growth
351permits) 1.75 in 1997 (185 students 106
permits) Over those 10 years the average has
been .84 new students per prior year number of
permits. This is down some .10 new students
from the period 1995 to 2000. Over the past 5
years the permit have averaged 319 with average
enrollment growth 242 students - .70 new students
new home.
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Also effecting enrollment change is the price and
availability of existing housing. While the
value of homes in Zionsville makes it an
attractive place to live, cost also limits the
number of potential buyers.

• The average homes sales price in Zionsville in
  2005 was 354,800 a 26 increase from the 2003
  average price of 287,800.
• The average sales price in Carmel in 2005 was
  321,400 a 13 increase from 2003, and
• The average price in Fishers was 246,700 a 7
  increase from two years prior.

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The type and price of the new housing is
important

• Condos and apartments (for Zionsville) bring
• few students and those will be grades 7-11.
• 2. Affordable housing has a lower number of
• students initially entering the system but a
  high
• proportion of those are K-4 students.
• Move up homes bring students at all grades.
• High End homes will bring a high proportion
• of students at the 7-11 grade levels.

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The quality of the Zionsville school system
offers distinct comparative advantages
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The educational quality makes Zionsville somewhat
of a scholastic black hole once students
enter they do not opt to move to other districts
in great numbers.

• The IDOE tracks student migration where 10
  or more students transfer from one district to
  another.
• For the 2004 to 2005 school years, Zionsville
  picked up 76 new students in main from Pike and
  Carmel. There was no net outflow of more than 10
  students.
• Carmel had 374 students enter and 380 exit a
  net loss of 6. Many students entering came from
  Washington Township and Pike while Hamilton
  Southeastern, Westfield and Parochial schools
  were major recipients of Carmel students.
• Hamilton Southeastern had a net transfer gain of
  254 students with Lawrence and Carmel being the
  major contributors while Noblesville led those
  districts receiving former HSE students.

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So by factoring 1. Estimated K-1 entry
population 2. Traditional grade 2-12
transitions 3. Changes in housing occupancy 4.
Quality of the school system 5. Estimated new
housing by type and price and 6. Population
mobility and birth rates. We can make
projections!
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The first consideration is the prior enrollment
history
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A second consideration is looking a recent
enrollment patterns in peer school districts
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Projections are made on a grade-by-grade and
year-by-year basis with consideration taken for
past history, growth factors within the
community, socio-demographics, land available for
development, the impact of growth and quality of
schools in other areas etc.
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Grade cluster shifts are most important for
planning improvements of existing facilities or
the need for new facilities and classroom space.
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The projection is for Zionsvilles enrollment to
continue to increase steadily with enrollment
peaking at about 8600 students around 2024. The
largest percentage increase should be at the high
school level with nearly 3300 students around
2021.
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In conjunction with the study, the IBRC also
conducted a survey of Zionsville households
requesting community input regarding necessary
high school expansion.

• There were 1323 valid responses an unexpectedly
  large number. Over 500 households also added
  personal comments.
• The majority of respondents 68 - were between
  the ages of 36 and 50and those most likely to
  have children in Zionsville schools.
• In fact, only 9 of respondents did not have
  children in school or of pre-school age.

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Survey results continued

• On average, respondent households had 1.54
  children in Zionsville schools and .49 children
  of pre-school age.
• 52 have lived in the community for 3 to 10 years
  and a surprising 32 have been residents for 11
  years or more. So the majority of respondents
  know Zionsville and the school system well.
• 46 of respondents live in the Pleasant View
  elementary area.

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Survey results continued Respondents were asked
opinions regarding five possible options for high
school expansion -

• One high school at the current site had the
  highest ranking but the option of two separate
  but equal high schools ran a very close second.
• The same options were considered More Desirable
  vs. other school districts if the respondents
  were considering moving to Zionsville. However,
  the One high school two campuses special
  9-12 focus was the favorite when more and
  equally desirable responses were combined.

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Survey results continued

• Cross-tabulated results showed 98 of those
  responding ages 36-50 have children of school
  and/or pre-school age. 73 of those ages 18-35
  have pre-school and/or elementary students.
• Those ages 18-35 rated one school present site
  most favorably and two separate equal high
  schools next,
• The rankings by those ages 36-50 were the same
  but with a much closer margin.
• Those respondents with elementary school children
  were of the opinion two separate and equal high
  schools was a virtual tossup with the option of
  one school on the present site.

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Survey results continued The respondents were
split into two groups, (a) those most likely to
have students use the high school facilities in
the future and those (b) considered least likely
to have involvement with the high school.

• Surprisingly, those in category (b) were not as
  opposed to the most expensive option and those
  more likely to have students in high school in
  the future.
• Those with students already in high school found
  one high at the present site the most desired
  option.
• Those with elementary students were about evenly
  split over the desirability (more-equal-less) of
  one high school at the present site.
• Interestingly, those with no children in school
  (though small in number) were least resistant to
  the concepts of two campuses with special
  curriculum focus and separate grade9-10 and
• 11-12 campuses.

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Summary of survey comments

• Two separate but equal high schools would split
  the community in half and become bitter rivals.
• We need two separate high schools we dont
  want to become another Carmel with kids getting
  lost in the shuffle.
• Two schools would offer more kids opportunities
  in athletics and other activities. The emphasis
  should be upon maximizing participation for all
  students.
• Separate 9-10 and 11-12 schools would reduce
  peer pressure.
• Separate 9-10 and 11-12 schools would stifle
  interaction between age groups necessary for
  growing up.
• Lets stop housing growth and we wouldnt need
  all these damned schools!

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Questions and Comments?