Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working

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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working?

• Presented by
• Louis Paquette
• Publisher, EGS
• www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca
• http//emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com
• www.BlogTalkRadio.com/Louis-Paquette

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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working?
Question In ONE WORD, what is the biggest
challenge facing stock market investors and
speculators?
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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working?

• UNCERTAINTY
• Over
• Overall market conditions
• Interest rates
• Commodity prices
• Specific company performance
• Government intervention
• Odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit
• Competition
• Etc.

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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working? So what
is certain?

• Stock rise an average 7 per annum over time, but
  not consistently
• There is a rhythm to asset price movement
  (cycles) from overbought to oversold, from overly
  optimistic to overly pessimistic
• A contrarian can take advantage of this to boost
  returns and reduce losses

Optimism
Pessimism
Stocks
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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working? has
strong annual seasonal tendencies
Gold

• Has risen 16 of past 20 Septembers
• September kicks off several of the planets most
  potent gold-demand drivers
• The post-monsoon wedding season in India, and
  Diwali, one of that countrys most important
  festivals
• Restocking by jewelry makers in advance of the
  Christmas shopping season in the United States
• The holy month of Ramadan in the Muslim world,
  whose end in late September is marked by a period
  of celebration and gift-giving
• And in China, National Day celebration starting
  October 1 and the run-up to the Chinese New Year
  in early 2010.

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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working? So what
does it look like?

• Source Moore Research Center, Inc. www.mrci.com

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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working? So what
does it look like?
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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working? How has
it done past 5 yrs?
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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working? Gold
Stocks
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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working?
Conclusions

• Sort of works, but its not the end all, you need
  to play it by ear and look for oversold and
  overbought conditions to enter or exit
• Works due to Physical demand for jewellery and
  as the bull market has emerged Physical demand
  has fallen while Investment demand has grown
  therefore seasonality isnt as strong now as
  before
• The way I would use if price at significant
  high/low and coincides with seasonal trend then
  use it if not, dont

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Gold Seasonality Is It Still Working? About EGS

• Specialize in small caps
• 159/yr or 15.90/month PayPal
• www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca
• http//emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com
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