New Century, New Business Models

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New Century, New Business Models

• GEMI Power Conference
• June 2006

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China India aspire to OECD living standards
their rise to materiality changes everything
3
Oil has little competition in the transportation
sector
2003
2030
Global Transportation
85.9 Quads
125.0 Quads
45
Source EIA IEO2006
4
Coal and natural gas are competing for power
growth
Global Power Generation
2003
2030
163.7 Quads
296.4 Quads
81
Source EIA IEO2006
5
Issue 1 Oil and gas suffer from a security of
supply externality
6
Issue 2 Coal suffers from a GHG emissions
externality
Source EIA IEO2006
7
To address these issues, we must reframe our
sense of industry purpose and boundaries
Primary Goods
8
What will be the Winning Business Models?
Gasification
Hydrocarbons
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Refining
Syngas
Fischer Tropsch
Gasoline Diesel
Combined Cycle
ICE
Hydrogen
CO2
Flue Gas
Fuel Cell
Chemical Separation
Personal Mobility
Electrons On Demand
Emissions Abatement
Nuclear Waste
Bio-fuels
Wind, Tides, Currents, Waves, Solar
Nuclear
Carbon Neutral
Bio-refining
Engineered Crops
9
Conservative Oil?
Gasification
Hydrocarbons
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Refining
Syngas
Fischer Tropsch
Gasoline Diesel
Combined Cycle
ICE
Hydrogen
CO2
Flue Gas
Fuel Cell
Chemical Separation
Personal Mobility
Electrons On Demand
Emissions Abatement
Nuclear Waste
Bio-fuels
Wind, Tides, Currents, Waves, Solar
Nuclear
Carbon Neutral
Bio-refining
Engineered Crops
10
Big Dig?
Gasification
Hydrocarbons
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Refining
Syngas
Fischer Tropsch
Gasoline Diesel
Combined Cycle
ICE
Hydrogen
CO2
Flue Gas
Fuel Cell
Chemical Separation
Personal Mobility
Electrons On Demand
Emissions Abatement
Nuclear Waste
Bio-fuels
Wind, Tides, Currents, Waves, Solar
Nuclear
Carbon Neutral
Bio-refining
Engineered Crops
11
Big Oil to Big Energy?
Gasification
Hydrocarbons
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Refining
Syngas
Fischer Tropsch
Gasoline Diesel
Combined Cycle
ICE
Hydrogen
CO2
Flue Gas
Fuel Cell
Chemical Separation
Personal Mobility
Electrons On Demand
Emissions Abatement
Nuclear Waste
Bio-fuels
Wind, Tides, Currents, Waves, Solar
Nuclear
Carbon Neutral
Bio-refining
Engineered Crops
12
Global Cool?
Gasification
Hydrocarbons
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Refining
Syngas
Fischer Tropsch
Gasoline Diesel
Combined Cycle
ICE
Hydrogen
CO2
Flue Gas
Fuel Cell
Chemical Separation
Personal Mobility
Electrons On Demand
Emissions Abatement
Nuclear Waste
Bio-fuels
Wind, Tides, Currents, Waves, Solar
Nuclear
Carbon Neutral
Bio-refining
Engineered Crops
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Super-Power?
Gasification
Hydrocarbons
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Refining
Syngas
Fischer Tropsch
Gasoline Diesel
Combined Cycle
ICE
Hydrogen
CO2
Flue Gas
Fuel Cell
Chemical Separation
Personal Mobility
Electrons On Demand
Emissions Abatement
Nuclear Waste
Bio-fuels
Wind, Tides, Currents, Waves, Solar
Nuclear
Carbon Neutral
Bio-refining
Engineered Crops
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Why Not? The Ultimate Resource is Human Ingenuity
Gasification
Hydrocarbons
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Refining
Syngas
Fischer Tropsch
Gasoline Diesel
Combined Cycle
ICE
Hydrogen
CO2
Flue Gas
Fuel Cell
Chemical Separation
Personal Mobility
Electrons On Demand
Emissions Abatement
Nuclear Waste
Bio-fuels
Wind, Tides, Currents, Waves, Solar
Nuclear
Carbon Neutral
Bio-refining
Engineered Crops
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Key strategic questions for an industry in
transition to a very different future

• What are the big trends and how can we get
  downwind of them?
• Can we shape the way the rules of the game are
  written?
• What should be our direction and what goals
  should we set?
• What should be the boundaries of our business
  portfolio?
• Which areas should we focus on with greatest
  intensity?
• What is the best business model for competitive
  advantage?
• What will be the value drivers?
• How do we leverage our existing and new
  competencies?
• How do we build out the strategy to get where we
  want to?
• Which partners will we need to execute the
  strategy?
• Is our leadership aligned with the new direction?

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Chris Ross CRA International 1600 Smith
Street Houston, TX 77002 [phone] cross_at_crai
.com