Keeping Students on a Graduation Path in Philadelphia

1
Keeping Students on a Graduation Path in
Philadelphias Middle-Grades Schools

• Early Identification Effective Interventions
• Balfanz, Herzog, Mac Iver (2007)

2
Research Questions

1. How many students exhibit early warning signs
   that they are beginning to disengage from
   schooling at the start of the middle grades in
   high poverty schools?
2. Can schools easily identify and effectively
   rescue students who have high odds of ultimately
   dropping out?

3
Data and Methods

• We followed all 13,000 of Philadelphias public
  school students who were enrolled in the 6th
  grade in October 1996. We followed them through
  October 2004 (1.25 years beyond their expected
  graduation date)
• We also looked at 3 more recent cohorts of
  Philadelphias 6th-graders and at cohorts in two
  other cities to verify our findings

4
Cont. Data and Methods

• We did a preliminary screen of about 20 variables
  (e.g., test scores, over age for grade, course
  marks, course failures, attendance, behavior
  marks, status and demographic indicators) to see
  which, if any, could identify as early as 6th
  grade students at high risk for slipping off a
  graduation pathway
• We looked for variables with a high yield (i.e.,
  about 75 or more of students with this
  characteristic do not make it to 12th grade on
  time)

5
Cont. Data and Methods

• Once we identified these flags, we then examined
  how well they predicted a students success in
  graduating from the Philadelphia school district
  on time or within one and a quarter extra years.
• The graduation rates we report are lower than
  official calculations because they dont adjust
  for transfers out of the district. 15 of those
  who left the district were transfers out.

6
Findings 4 Powerful 6th Grade Predictors of
Slipping Off Path

• Attending school 80 or less of the time
• Receiving a poor final behavior mark or a
  suspension
• Failing Math
• Failing English

7
6th-Grade Course Failure as a Predictor of Not
Graduating

• Course failure was a much better predictor of not
  graduating than were low test scores.
• Students who failed either a math course or an
  English/Reading course in sixth grade rarely
  graduated from the district.

8
Did 6th-graders who FAILED MATH in 1997 (n1801)
Graduate On Time or 1 Yr. Late?
who were in . In 2003 (on time) In 2004 (1 yr. late)
9th grade 4 1
10th grade 9 1
11th grade 8 2
12th grade 19 8
of students who actually graduated 13 6
Cum. who left the District 61 75
9
Did 6th-graders who FAILED ENGLISH in 1997
(n1409) Graduate On Time or 1 Yr. Late?
who were in . In 2003 (on time) In 2004 (1 yr. late)
9th grade 5 1
10th grade 9 2
11th grade 8 2
12th grade 16 9
of students who actually graduated 12 6
Cum. who left the District 62 74
10
6th-Grade Attendance as a Predictor of Not
Graduating

• Attending school less than 90 of the time
  increases the odds that a student will not
  graduate.
• When a sixth-graders attendance dips below 80
  (missing 36 days or more in the year), the
  student has only a 1 in 6 chance of graduating
  from the district on time or one-year late.

11
Did LOW ATTENDING 6TH Graders in 1997 (n1934)
Graduate On Time or 1 Yr. Late?
who were in . In 2003 (on time) In 2004 (1 yr. late)
9th grade 3 1
10th grade 6 1
11th grade 4 1
12th grade 17 5
of students who actually graduated 13 4
Cum. who left the District 69 79
12
Poor Behavior in 6th-Grade as a Predictor of Not
Graduating

• Students who were suspended slipped off the
  graduation path in large numbers.
• 845 (6) of the sixth-graders received one or
  more out of school suspensions. Only 20 of
  these students graduated on time or one year
  late.
• 222 sixth-graders received in-school suspensions.
  Only 17 graduated on time or one year late.

13
Poor Behavior (cont.)

• Receiving a final unsatisfactory behavior grade
  in any subject in the sixth-grade significantly
  reduced the chances that sixth-graders would
  graduate from the school district.
• A very large number (4,893) and percent (38)
  received at least one final unsatisfactory
  behavior grade.

14
Did 6th-Graders With an Unsatisfactory Behavior
Grade in 1997 (n4893) Graduate On Time or 1 Yr.
Late?
who were in . In 2003 (on time) In 2004 (1 yr. late)
9th grade 3 1
10th grade 7 1
11th grade 7 2
12th grade 31 8
of students who actually graduated 24 5
Cum. who left the District 52 64
15
Percent of Sixth-Graders Graduating on Time or 1
Year Late
Failure Behavior Combinations On-Time Grads 1-Yr-Late Grads
Fail English but Good Behavior (n176) 14 7
Fail English Poor Beh. (n725) 6 5
Fail Math but Good Behavior (n298) 16 8
Fail Math Poor Beh. (n1006) 8 5
16
Graduation rates for 6th Graders with Different
Numbers of Risk Factors
of Risk Factors N Percent Who Graduate
None 6265 56
Only 1 3498 36
2 1329 21
3 619 13
4 326 7
1 or more 5772 29
17
Discussion

• We were able to find four variables with a very
  high predictive yield that identify the majority
  of sixth-graders who fall off the graduation path
• These variables are each commonly measured and
  collectively capture a significant portion of a
  districts future dropouts

18
Implications

• Students fall off the graduation path in
  different but identifiable ways.
• In 6th grade, most future dropouts have just one
  of the big four risk factors especially poor
  behavior or poor attendance
• Some have two risk factors, especially poor
  behavior plus course failure (in English or
  mathematics)
• Less than 8 of the sixth-graders had more than
  two of the big four indicators.

19
Why do you think so few sixth-graders recover
once they display one of the big four warning
signs?
20
Implications

• Academic and behavioral problems at the start of
  the middle grades do not self-correct (at least
  in Philadelphia and the two other cities where we
  have replicated this work)
• The most common and very harmful response to
  students who struggle in 6th grade is to wait and
  hope they grow out of it. But, they do not
  typically recover, they drop out.
• Early intervention is absolutely essential.

21
Effective Interventions

• Research comparing outcomes in Talent Development
  Middle Schools with matched other schools in
  Philadelphia suggest that comprehensive school
  reform can significantly reduce the number of
  students who develop a poor attendance habit, who
  fail math, or who fail English and can produce
  significantly higher graduation rates.

22
Comprehensive Reforms Must be Combined with
Targeted Interventions

• Additional interventions specifically focused on
  improving behavior and attendance must be added

23
What characterizes effective interventions for
behavior and attendance?
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Common Features of Effective Interventions for
Behavior and Attendance

• Positive behavior and good attendance is
  constantly recognized, modeled, and promoted
• The first absence or incident of misbehavior
  brings a consistent, appropriate response
• The intervention uses simple data collection and
  analysis tools that enable teachers and
  administrators to better understand the schools
  absenteeism or misbehavior problems
• Attendance and behavior teams regularly meet to
  analyze data and devise solutions

25
Shepherding of the Initially Unresponsive

• If the student is a low attender, the shepherd
  might call the student each day the student is
  absent to communicate that the student is missed
  and to ask the reason for non-attendance.
• If the student has behavior problems, shepherding
  might involve asking each of the students
  teachers to complete a simple behavioral record
  and then checking at the end of the day how the
  student did.

26
A 3-Stage Intervention Model

1. Schoolwide reforms aimed at alleviating 75 or so
   of the problem behaviors including poor
   attendance
2. Shepherding for the 15 to 20 of students who
   need additional supports beyond the schoolwide
   reforms
3. Intensive efforts involving specialists
   (counselors, social workers) for the 5 to 10
   who need more clinical types of support

27
A Promising Path to Higher Graduation Rates

• Identify those who need sustained intervention
• Provide both comprehensive schoolwide reforms and
  more targeted and individually-focused
  interventions to prevent and alleviate student
  disengagement