NOx Stringency Considerations CAEP6WP33 Presented by ICCAIA

1
NOx Stringency Considerations
(CAEP/6-WP/33)Presented by ICCAIA
2
Considerations for Setting New NOx Standards

• Competitive market forces and reasonable
  standards drive manufacturers to develop more
  efficient and low NOx technology engines
• Reasonable standards encourage manufacturers to
  incorporate best available, proven technology
  into their products sooner
• Reduced risk, high confidence in operability and
  durability, technological feasibility, economic
  reasonableness
• Severe standards delay product introduction,
  reduce confidence in operability and durability,
  and result in potentially unfavorable trade-offs
  with CO2, noise, CO, HC and smoke

3
Standards, Technology, Costs Market
Interactions

• FESG economic analysis highlights significant
  costs involved in meeting even a limited NOx
  stringency increase
• Emphasises need to balance the economic
  reasonableness of any NOx stringency increase
  against its environmental benefits
• Could suggest that no increase would be justified
  at this time
• ICCAIA, however, suggests adopting a reasonable
  increase in stringency to encourage market driven
  incorporation of best available technology into
  current and near term products
• Recent certifications employing best available
  technology have 7 to 30 margin to CAEP/4
  (CAEP/6-WP/5)
• Higher thrust, higher pressure ratio engines have
  the lowest margins because of important CO2/noise
  trade-offs
• Trade-offs cannot be ignored

4
Significant Environmental Impact Can be Obtained
with Proven Technology

• Estimates are based on WG3/FESG assumptions for
  aircraft with 100 seats
• Assumes 2008 implementation, considers 2008 to
  2020 deliveries - 10,984 new aircraft delivered
  - 26,046 installed engines

NOx Stringency 15
NOx Stringency 5
NOx Stringency 10

• 56 of engines are improved
• 21 use proven technology (available for 2008)
• 20 require technology transfer (available
  2012?)
• 15 require new technology (unknown
  availability)

• 33 of engines are improved
• All use proven technology (available for 2008)

• 54 of engines are improved
• All use proven technology (available for 2008)

5
Accelerating Standard Implementation to Increase
Environmental Benefit
Source FESG CAEP/6-IP/13
6
Setting Stringency Level so as to Maximize
Environmental Return on Investment
Source FESG CAEP/6-IP/13
7
The High Cost of Reducing Aviation Emissions

• Based on the FESG analysis (CAEP/6-IP/13) the
  marginal cost to reduce NOx is estimated to
  exceed 20,000(USD)/tonne
• This should not be overlooked, in terms of
  consistency and reasonableness compared to other
  methods of NOx reductions, if and when deciding a
  stringency increase

8
Managing Future Emissions Technologies

• Revolutionary technologies are under development
  at manufacturers and at research establishments
  (CAEP/6-IP3)
• Currently at low levels of readiness not
  production ready
• Lean Direct Injection (LDI), Lean Premixed
  Pre-vaporized (LPP), Optimized Rich-Quench-Lean
  (RQL)
• Development progress of these technologies to be
  tracked under the proposed Long Term
  Technological Goals Process (CAEP/6-IP/4).
• These technologies can serve as the basis for
  future standards once airworthiness has been
  successfully demonstrated

9
Conclusions/Recommendations for the Present

• There is no technical or economic justification
  for large NOx stringency increases at this time
• Setting standards beyond reach of best available
  technology could be a disincentive to make
  interim solutions and could delay introduction of
  best available technology
• If CAEP decides that a new standard is
  appropriate and necessary, the most consistent,
  reasonable, cost-efficient and timely approach
  would be a stringency increase of 10, becoming
  effective in 2008

10
and Future Perspectives

• Extensive research programmes, stimulated by
  ambitious long-term goals, supported by adequate
  funding, will enable continuous progress and
  breakthroughs in emission reduction technologies
  and new product developments
• The proposed Long Term Technology Goal (LTTG)
  review process will allow to review progress on
  technology development against research goals,
  and inform the future review of certification
  standards
• Improved understanding of the impact of aviation
  emissions on climate and on air quality, and of
  the interdependencies between environmental
  factors, supported by dedicated research efforts
  (including modelling), will be key in optimising
  the goal setting process