Pest Risk Analysis PRA Training

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Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Training
International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC)
CFIA-ACIA
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Stages

• Stage 1 Initiation
• Stage 2 Pest Risk Assessment
• Step 1 Pest Categorization
• Step 2 Assessment of the Probability of
  Introduction and Spread
• Step 3 Impacts
• Step 4 Overall Assessment of Risk
• Step 5 Uncertainty
• Stage 3 Pest Risk Management

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Pest risk analysis

• Stage 1 (initiation) asked
• What bad thing can happen?
• Stage 2 (pest risk assessment) asked
• How likely is it to happen?
• How bad will it be?
• Does it matter? Is the risk acceptable?
• Stage 3 (pest risk management) asks
• What can be done about it?

Pest identity
Overall pest risk
Response to risk
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Stage 3 Pest Risk Management

• Conclusions of pest risk assessment
• Risk acceptable? PRA ends
• Risk unacceptable? PRA continues

Stop

• Identifying options
• Evaluating options
• Selecting options

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Conclusion of pest risk assessment

• Level of risk can be expressed in various ways
• Reference to existing phytosanitary requirements
• Indexed to estimated economic losses
• Expressed on a scale of risk tolerance
• Compared to the risk presented by the same pest
  at a different time
• Compared with the level of risk accepted by other
  countries
• Compared with the level of risk accepted for
  other pests

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Acceptability of risk

• Acceptable level of risk is established by the
  NPPO
• When might risk be acceptable?
• Level of risk is so low that specific treatment
  is not cost effective
• Level of risk is no greater than that already
  experienced
• Cost of mitigation is excessive compared to the
  benefit
• When is risk unacceptable?
• Pest incursion would result in economic,
  environmental or social consequences

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Risk is unacceptable

• Western corn rootworm in DE
• Spreading in nearby countries
• High potential impact due to crop losses over
  large area, increasing maize production
• Natural man-made spread
• Unacceptable risk
• Next steps
• Stage 2 Pest risk management
• Identify appropriate mitigation measures, if any

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Pest risk management

• A structured analysis of measures that can be
  recommended to minimize risks posed by a pest or
  pathway

• Measures can be implemented
• to the growing crop
• to the harvested commodity
• to associated materials
• Measures can be implemented
• at origin or in the exporting country
• at the point of entry
• within the importing country or invaded area

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Pest risk management

• Consider all pathways
• Traded plants or plant products
• Natural spread of the pest
• Entry with human travellers
• Vehicular transport
• Associated materials
• Identify points at which mitigation measures
  might be applied
• Identify possible mitigation measures at each
  point
• Assess each for effectiveness, efficiency,
  feasibility .
• Select appropriate measure(s)

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Mitigation points
Country of Origin
In Transit
Country of Destination
Nursery or Orchard
Packing House
Containers
Plantation
Port of Arrival
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Mitigation points
Country of Origin
In Transit
Country of Destination
? Place ? Crop ? Commodity ? Pathway
? Storage Facility ? Container(s) ?
Transport (ship, train, truck )
? Commodity ? Pathway ? Place ? Other
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Country of origin

• Place/area of production measures
• General or pest-specific surveillance
• Historic data
• Official measures to maintain pest-free status
• Crop measures
• Treatment of the crop, field or place of
  production
• Growing plants under protected conditions to
  prevent infestation of the crop
• Specifying time of harvest
• Phytosanitary certification

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Country of origin

• Commodity Measures
• Inspection or laboratory tests
• Prohibition of parts of the host
• Restricting the composition of a consignment
• Pre-shipment quarantine
• Specified conditions for preparing the
  consignment
• Treatment for removal of pest(s)
• Pathway measures
• Targeted inspections, publicity and fines or
  incentives
• Measures for machinery, modes of transportation,
  or packaging

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In transit

• Commodity Measures
• Storage conditions may be specified
• Temperature, packaging, separation from other
  specified plants etc.
• Fumigation or other chemical treatment on board
  ship
• Ship inspection before loading or at destination

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Country of destination

• Commodity Measures
• Inspection of consignments at the point of entry
• Treat the consignment to kill living pests
• Contain imported consignments to limit spread of
  introduced pests
• Post-entry quarantine
• Limit use, distribution, or timing of consignments

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Country of destination

• Prohibition of a specific commodity from specific
  source
• Only if no treatments or inspection techniques
  are available and effective in reducing risk to
  acceptable levels
• A measure of last resort
• IPPC principles of necessity, science-based,
  managed risk and minimal impact

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Other measures

• Document
• Phytosanitary Certificates
• Import permits
• IPPC stamp for SWP
• Phytosanitary Certificates
• Official assurance that specified import
  requirements are met
• Confirms that risk management measures have been
  taken
• Only for regulated articles

• Educate
• Educate inform travellers, importers, industry,
  government or public

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Selecting appropriate measures

• Phytosanitary measures should be
• cost-effective feasible
• no more trade-restrictive than necessary
• not imposed if existing measures are effective
• Different measures with the same effect should be
  accepted as alternatives
• For pests under official control in PRA area,
  import measures should be no more restrictive
  than measures applied within PRA area

Cost-effectiveness Feasibility Minimal
Impact Equivalence Non-discrimination
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Evaluating options

• Evaluate each option for
• Effectiveness
• Efficiency
• Cost effectiveness
• Feasibility
• Reproducibility
• Potential negative social, economic or
  environmental consequences

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Pest risk analysis

• Stage 1 (initiation) asked
• What bad thing can happen?
• Stage 2 (pest risk assessment) asked
• How likely is it to happen?
• How bad will it be?
• Does it matter? Is the risk acceptable?
• Stage 3 (pest risk management) asks
• What can be done about it?

Pest identity
Overall pest risk
Response to risk
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Selecting options
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Risk management example
Country of Origin
Country of Destination
Nursery
Packing House
Ship
Plantation
Port of Arrival
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Risk management example
Country of Origin
Country of Destination
Nursery
Packing House
Ship
Plantation
Port of Arrival
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Conclusion of Stage 3

• Risk mitigation measures have been
• Identified
• Evaluated
• Selected
• Mitigation measures to reduce risk to acceptable
  level are selected, or
• No mitigation measures are available

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Conclusion of PRA

• Pest risk management conclusion
• selection of one of more options or series of
  options, OR
• no suitable mitigation measures available
• PRA ends
• options form the basis of phytosanitary
  regulations or requirements

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Costs and Benefits

• The cost-benefit analysis for each of the
  minimum measures found to provide acceptable
  security may be estimated. Those measures with an
  acceptable benefit-to-cost ratio should be
  considered.
• How is this done? What does cost-benefit mean?

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Costs and Benefits

• Costs costs of measure(s) applied
• Industry costs determined from additional costs
  / increased labour costs
• Government costs staff costs to apply and
  monitor measures
• Benefits avoiding the losses that the pest
  would otherwise cause

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Costs and Benefits example

• A risk assessment of Pest x suggests that unless
  measures are taken it is very likely to be
  carried on imported host plants from the country
  of origin to the PRA area where it is very likely
  to transfer to crops and cause yield losses of
  100 ha-1 year-1.
• Based on spread elsewhere it is likely that the
  entire crop area of 10,000 ha would be infested
  within 5 years.

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Costs and Benefits example

• Four options are considered
• 1. Source plants from a pest free area
• But exporting country cannot establish a PFA
• 2. Parts of plants (e.g. leaves) prohibited
• But will add cost (10,000 year-1)
• 3. Inspect crop at origin, apply appropriate
  chemical treatment if needed, inspect
  consignments before export and certify pest free
• But will add cost (40,000 year-1)
• 4. Post entry quarantine
• But will add cost (300,000 year-1)

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Costs and Benefits example
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Costs and Benefits example

• In the short term (5 years) the cost of applying
  measures will be
• Option 2 50,000 (partly effective)
• Option 3 200,000 (partly effective)
• Option 4 1,500,000 (fully effective)
• Option 2 3 250,000 (fully effective)
• The expected cost (5 years) of not applying
  measures are estimated to be 10,000 infested ha
  at a cost of 100/ha 1,000,000

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Costs and Benefits example
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Pest Risk Management
Pest/pathway

• Risk mitigation measures are
• Identified
• Evaluated
• Selected
• Pest risk is acceptable
• PRA ends

Pest risk assessment
Pest risk management