Policy developments and projected GHG emissions

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UNFCCC press conference, Bonn, 20 November 2007
Policy developments and projectedGHG emissions
by Katia Simeonova (UNFCCC secretariat)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change
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Overall policy development trend

• Parties have continued to develop and implement
  comprehensive climate change strategies, action
  plans and programmes that contain broad
  portfolios of policies and measures to mitigate
  GHG emissions
• The Kyoto Protocol is a major driver in enlarging
  and focusing government action and the key
  policies are climate driven (ECCP)
• Three groups of policies and measures
• Emissions pricing mechanisms, such as carbon
  taxes and tradable emissions allowances
• Barrier reduction policies to overcome the
  information, financial and market barriers to the
  development and deployment of existing
  climate-friendly technologies and options to
  their full potential
• Policies aimed at creating new technology
  solutions, or long-term research and development

More than 1000 policies and measures implemented
a reflection of the absence of a known silver
bullet policy
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New policy trends

• Parties are increasingly relying on harder
  (economic and regulatory) instruments over softer
  (voluntary) instruments (but voluntary
  agreements and partnerships continue to be used)
• New and innovative policy approaches have gained
  prominence and share in overall policy
  portfolios, such as market-based mechanisms
• Market-based mechanisms have already successfully
  created a new valuable commodity, carbon, whose
  total quantity can be limited
• Parties are also making great use of multilevel
  governance
• Also, greater use of international bilateral and
  multinational activities to foster
  climate-friendly technology development and
  deployment

The EU ETS became relatively quickly the
centrepiece of the EC climate change strategy
aimed at meeting the Kyoto emissions commitment
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Primary polices and instruments used by sector
(KP)
-8.7

1. Energy industries (-220 TgCO2 eq ) tradable
   emissions allowances, framework targets, VA
2. Industry (550 TgCO2 eq ) regulations, VA and
   sectoral commitments, and tradable emissions
   allowances
3. Transport (240 TgCO2 eq) regulations and VA,
   framework targets
4. Energy use in residential, commercial and
   institutional sectors (130 TgCO2 eq)
   information and awareness programmes,
   regulations, market incentives, VA, carbon tax
5. Agriculture (340 TgCO2 eq) and LULUCFr (340
   TgCO2 eq ) economic incentives, regulation, and
   public infrastructure and resource management
6. Waste (60 TgCO2 eq ) regulations, VA,
   framework targets

-18
18.6
-10
-30
98
-15
The mix of policies varies considerably among the
key emitting sectors and there is a greater use
of low cost options to mitigate non-CO2 emissions

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Are policies effective enough to deliver needed
emission reductions emission outlook for 2012
(KP)
With measures -10.8
With additional measures plus the use of LULUCF
and mechanisms -15.3
Kyoto Parties as a group are projected to meet
the 5 per cent reduction target in 2012 compared
to the 1990 levels (Article 3, paragraph 1), for
a number of Parties individual targets are
challenging
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Projections emission mitigation challenge by
sector (KP)
Transport 26.8
Transport sector remains the key challenge for
emission mitigation
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Key issues
Parties have continued to develop and implement
comprehensive climate change strategies, action
plans and programmes
More than 1000 policies and measures implemented
a reflection of the absence of a known silver
bullet policy or measure
New and innovative approaches are taking greater
share in policy portfolio the EU ETS became
relatively quickly the centrepiece of the EC
climate change strategy aimed at meeting the
Kyoto emissions commitment
Many economic, energy and environmental factors
some policy driven, some not helped to moderate
the upward pressure of economic activity growth
on GHG emissions
Transport sector remains the key challenge for
emission mitigation
Kyoto Parties as a group are projected to meet
the 5 per cent reduction target in 2012 compared
to the 1990 levels (Article 3, paragraph 1) for a
number of Parties individual targets are
challenging
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Kyoto cornerstones data policies
infrastructures
Policies and measures to reduce emissions
Systems infrastructures to support GHG
emissions data and market-based mechanisms
Reports on GHG emissions
Emission reduction targets under Kyoto
Protocol for industrialized countries at least
5 by 2008-2012 compared to 1990
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Additional slides
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Emissions and economic trends

1. During 19902004, GHG emissions from Annex I
   Parties without LULUCF declined by 3.3 per cent
   (with LULUCF the decline was by 4.9 per cent),
   while total GDP grew by 36.2 per cent
2. The decoupling of trends in emissions and GDP was
   greater for EIT Parties (36.8 per cent decrease
   in emissions without LULUCF 11.7 per cent
   increase in GDP)
3. Some decoupling in the trends of non-EIT Annex I
   Parties also occurred (11.0 per cent increase in
   emissions without LULUCF 39.5 per cent increase
   in GDP)
4. This was reflected in reduced emissions intensity
   of the economy (emissions per unit of GDP), which
   fell by 29 per cent for all Annex I Parties.

Many economic, energy and environmental factors
some policy driven, some not helped to
moderate the upward pressure of economic
activity growth on GHG emissions
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Vulnerability and adaptation

• Coastal zones, water resources, human health and
  agriculture are the areas and sectors most
  vulnerable to climate change according to
  Parties assessment
• Coastal zones increased risk from erosion,
  flooding, storm damage, changing coastal
  contours, wetlands build-up and salt-water
  intrusion into freshwater reserves
• Water resources could be diminished through the
  drying of lakes, reduced stream flow and
  underground outflow and increased flooding, and
  degradation through freshwater contamination
• Human health increased risk from heat (and in
  some cases, cold) stress, water scarcity,
  vector-, food- and water-borne diseases such as
  malaria, dengue fever and diarrhoea, and
  pollen-induced allergies such as asthma and hay
  fever
• Agriculture risk from net reductions in crop
  production, with decreases in many regions and
  increases in fewer regions.

Shift of emphasis from further research on
vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the
implementation of concrete national plans,
strategies and programmes for adapting to
climate change
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Financial resources, transfer of technologies and
capacity-building

1. An increase in the contribution to the GEF and
   other multilateral institutions
2. An increase in the total bilateral contribution
   on mitigation-related activities the energy and
   transport sectors received the greater part of it
   (sharp increase)
3. Total bilateral contribution on
   adaptation-related activities remained broadly
   stable (remains small in relation to the
   mitigation activities and programmes)
4. On technology transfer, the majority of the
   relevant activities have taken place in the
   energy sector (energy efficiency and renewable
   energy) role of bilateral and multilateral
   partnerships
5. Continued to support capacity-building as an
   integral part of the support programmes

Overall increase in financial contribution for
climate change to developing countries and
enhanced effort on technology transfer