US-Russian Relations: Nuclear Arms Race and Disarmament

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US-Russian Relations Nuclear Arms Raceand
Disarmament

• Matt RosensteinAssociate Director
• Arms Control, Disarmament, and International
  Security (ACDIS) at UIUC
• Modified by Kevin Sacerdote Mandarin High
  School Jacksonville, FL

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(No Transcript)
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What Hath We Wrought?
Only country in the world to carry out a nuclear
attack?

• United States, on Japan, WWII
• Hiroshima (August 6, 1945) and Nagasaki (August
  9, 1945)

Fat Man and Little Boy
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Hiroshima and Nagasaki

• Estimated that between 115,000-170,000 were
  killed immediately
• Twice as many more died over time (radiation
  poisoning)
• 95 of deaths were civilian

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Nuclear Shadows Before After The Bomb
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Hiroshima and Nagasaki

• Little Boy 13,000 tons of TNT equivalent
• Most nuclear warheads today yield between150
  kiloton-1 megaton
• Tsar bomba Soviets exploded a50-megaton bomb
  in test (1961)
• Spasm attack by US or USSR would result in 40-75
  million Soviet and110-150 million US deaths
  (RAND, 1960)

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US and Soviet Nuclear Strategic Forces, 1950-2000
US USSR/Russia Year Launchers Warheads L
aunchers Warheads 1950 462 400 22 84 1960 1,5
59 3,127 144 354 1970 2,100 5,239 1,985 2,21
6 1980 2,022 10,608 2,545 7,480 1990 1,903 12,4
77 2,500 10,271 2000 1,407 7,519 1,266 6,094 2
005 1,225 5,966 981 4,732
Source Arms Control Association, Fact Sheets
(2005)
1956 totals
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USSRs Top Priority Targets(Recognize the
Geography?)
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Characteristics of US and Soviet Nuclear
Strategic Forces (Delivery Systems)

• Both US and USSR created nuclear triad forces
• Ground (ICBM)
• Sea (SLBM)
• Air (Bombers)

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The Arms Race Why?

• Territorial integrity and national sovereignty
• Ideological struggle
• Capitalism vs. communism
• Liberal democracy vs. authoritarian rule
• Military prowess nukes as visible symbol of
  power
• USSR could not keep up economically
• MAD Mutually Assured Destruction
• Deterrence
• Bargaining power / leverage in multilateral bodies

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US-Russia Arms Race A Brief Early Chronology
1942 US initiates Manhattan Project 1945 Hiroshi
ma and Nagasaki 1949 Soviet explosion of nuclear
device 1957 Sputnik 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
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Early US Nuclear War Plan(s)(acc. To The Dead
Hand. Pp. 15-24 )

• Eisenhowers drafted in 1960
• Massive Retaliation
• Overkill-use of 3,500 nuclear weapons against the
  USSR
• John F. Kennedy (and Robert McNamara)
• Counterforce
• At first, Implied a limited Nuclear Strike (aim
  for weapon storage facilities, not populations or
  factories)
• Later, Assured Destruction 20-25 of the
  population, 50 of the Industry
• Mutual was added by Donald Brennan of the
  Hudson Institute to create the acronym MAD
  (Mutual Assured Destruction)
• The USSR does NOT achieve Nuclear Parity with the
  USA until the late 1960s/Early 1970s --- Leads
  to Keepin Up With the Jones

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Arms Control Treaties

• BE SURE TO REVIEW THE TYPED INFORMATION ON THE
  GOPO WEBSITE!!!
• Multilateral
• Antarctic Treaty (1959)
• Outer Space Treaty (1967)
• Outlaws military uses for either area.
• Biological Weapons Convention (1972)
• Inhumane Weapons Convention (1981)
• Outlaws use of chemical weapons, other weapons
  that could cause undue collateral damage

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Arms Control (cont.)

• Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (1968)
• Prevents transfer of nuclear weapons and/or
  technology to non-nuclear states.
• Limited Test Ban Treaty (1968)
• Prohibits testing weapons in atmosphere, outer
  space, and underwater (later expanded)

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US-Russia Disarmament A Brief Chronology

• 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty
• End of atmospheric testing
• Hotline
• Halt proliferation to other states
• 1969-1972 SALT I
• Set numerical limits on missile launchers (not
  warheads--gtMIRVs)
• 1972-1979 SALT II
• Broader limits than SALT Ibut Afghanistan
  spoiled negotiations (Ratified?)

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US-Russia Disarmament A Brief Chronology

• 1972 ABM Treaty
• Limited each to two ABM sites (no nationwide
  defense)
• Prohibited sea-, air-, space-based systems
• Limit on qualitative improvement
• Problematic Star Wars, US pull-out in 2001-2
• 1972 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

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Arms Controls US/USSR (cont)

• Intermediate-range Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty
  (1987)
• Eliminates shorter-range missiles in Europe
  allows for onsite inspections
• Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) (1991)
• 30 reduction in total nuclear arsenal.

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US-Russia Disarmament A Brief Chronology

• 1991 START I Treaty
• Negotiated almost 10 years
• Reductions in launchers (max. 1,600) and warheads
  (max. 6,000)
• 1993 START II Treaty
• Further reductions never ratified by US Senate
  and Russian Duma

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Soviet Nuclear Assets at Time of Break-Up
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Bioweapons Programs

• 1960s both US and USSR were developing
  bio-weapons programs (US stockpiled tularemia
  bacteria, anthrax, a Venezuelan equine
  encephalomyelitis virus (dried and liquid), and
  other items
• 1972 BWC US, USSR (other actors, such as UK)
  agreed to halt bio-weapons research
• 1992 Russian scientists reported work with
  smallpox from 1970s-1990s (felt the USA was also
  cheating- Dead Hand ( by David Hoffman) claims
  most of the US stockpile was destroyed in 1973
  pp. 101-126)
• Bio-Program cheaper than nukes (Bacteria Prefix
  L and Viruses Prefix N)
• Worked with Plague (L1), Tularemia(L2),
  Brucellosis (L3), Anthrax 836 (L4), Smallpox
  (Variola) (N1), Ebola (N2), Marburg (N3),
  Tularemia(L2), and others in large quantities
• Various research efforts aerosolizing the virus
  placed on ballistic missile warheads

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Biological Weapons (acc. To Hoffmans Dead Hand)

• 1975 to 1991
• Covertly, USSR built the largest biological
  weapons program in the world
• Experimentations with genetic engineering to
  create pathogens that would cause unstoppable
  diseases
• Unstoppable diseases not considered a
  battlefield weapon (p. 14)

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After the Soviet Break-UpProliferation and
Brain Drain

• Concerns over safeguarding nuclear technologies
  and materials
• Dysfunctional military command and control?
• 150,000 scientists, engineers, technicians
  employed in weapons-related work
• 1990s economic crisis meant low wages (or back
  wages owed) --gt nuclear entrepreneurs
• Sell their knowledge?Seek employment in countries
  with nuclear aspirations?

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Cooperative Threat Reduction in Russia
Silo Launcher Elimination
Heavy Bomber Elimination
Solid Propellant ICBM/SLBM and Mobile Launcher
Elimination
Liquid Propellant ICBM/ SLBM Elimination
SSBN/SLBM Dismantlement Elimination
SS-24/SS-25 Mobile Launcher Elimination
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Cooperative Threat Reduction in Russia
Keeping out the terrorists at Vector
(biotechnology facility, Koltsovo, Russia)
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Cooperative Threat Reduction Accomplishments

• More than 6,000 nuclear weapons destroyed
• Thousands of launchers, missiles, devices
• Removed all weapons from Ukraine, Belarus,
  Kazakhstan (pp. 440 458 of The Dead Hand )
• Employed thousands of former weapons scientists
• Also destroying chemical and biological weapons
• The Dead Hand The Untold Story of the Cold War
  Arms Race and its Dangerous Legacy, by David E.
  Hoffman (2009, Doubleday Publishing)

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The ABM Treaty A Bump in the Road?

• In Dec. 2001, Bush administration gave 6-month
  notice that US would withdraw from treaty
• Why? US wants to develop NMD to protect against
  WMD threats from terrorists, rogue states
• Putin regime protested vehemently--gtfelt it would
  limit their deterrence capabilities (made START
  II levels undesirable)
• Failure of Russian diplomacy?

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The ABM Treaty A Bump in the Road?

• SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty), or
  Moscow Treaty signed in May 2002
• Cut warheads to 1,700-2,200 by 2012
• Ratified in 2003 by Duma and Senate

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US-Russian Arms Race Legacy Ongoing Concerns

• Potential for technology, materials, knowledge
  transfers
• Setting a bad exampleweapons stockpiles and
  fissile materials stocks are disincentives for
  India, Pakistan, Israel(?), Iran, N. Korea, etc.

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US-Russian Arms Race Legacy Ongoing Concerns

• Whither the United States?
• National Missile Defense
• Earth-penetrating nukes, mini-nukes
• Nuclear primacy?
• Whither Russia?
• Superpower nostalgia
• Maintain credible deterrence
• Relations with China, Iran vs. with US, EU