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QLTEVF

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Where are the equity markets headed and how is the Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund poised for growth? Find answers through the webinar presentation that take you through the fundamentals that drive the market rally and how investors benefit from the downside protection offered by a value fund. www.Quantumamc.com – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: QLTEVF


1
Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund
Speaker Mr. Sorbh Gupta, Fund Manager
Equities 15th September 2021
2
Economic Activity Gradually recovering
Economic activity in most sectors are at similar
or higher than pre Covid-19 level
Production Trends July 2021 as of Feb 2020 Credit and Consumption Trends July 2021 as of Feb 2020
Cement Production 92.9 Bank Credit 107.9
Steel Production 100.8 Bank Credit to Industry 101.1
Fertilizer Production 111.4 2-Wheeler Sales 101.5
Coal Production 69.6 Passenger Car Sales 104.0
Crude Oil Production 106.3 Tractor Sales 117.7
Natural Gas Production 124.8 Air Cargo 96.7
Petroleum Refinery Products 94.8 Rail Freight traffic 105.8
Electricity Generation 116.5 Port cargo 90.2
Source CMIE
3
Corporate Profits at an all time High,
Expectations of Strong Demand Rebound
3
  • Corporate profitability hit a record in Q4FY21
    driven by strong revenue growth and strict
    control on costs .
  • Demand is expected to rebound post unlock driving
    sales, but higher input costs and normalizing
    other costs may see profit growth lag revenue
    growth
  • Source CMIE- Economic Outlook

4
Demonetization, GST, Covid Large Companies
Getting Larger
Source CMIE- Economic Outlook, Data as of March
2021
5
Consensus Earnings Upgrades After Many Years of
Flat Growth
Source Bloomberg. As on 31thJuly 2021. Past
Performance may or may not sustained in future.
6
Déjà vu Is it 2005-08 or 2010-13
6
Corporate Earnings Liquidity Equity Valuations Equity Returns
Rising Easy High Positive
Rising Tight Moderate Slight Decline
Stagnant/Falling Easy Moderate Slight Decline
Falling Tight Falling Sharp Correction
Most Likely Scenario, But Returns may moderate
7
Value vs. Growth (2010-2019)
Past Performance may or may not sustained in
future.
8
Value vs. Growth (2000-2009)
Past Performance may or may not sustained in
future.
9
2021 Boom Bust, Evenly Poised
9
  • Boom
  • Real economic activity continue to revive
    corporate earning upgrade happen
  • Real estate revives stamp duty cut, lower
    interest rates spur real estate demand
  • Strong export growth in services products as
    factories relocate from China to India
  • Foreign flows FDI FII driven by higher yields
    and faster growth
  • Bust
  • Poor Government Policy
  • Resurgence in Covid cases, Poor execution of
    Vaccine rollout
  • Rising Inflation could dampen Demand Recovery

10
Indians Still Consuming The Hungry Consumers!
Year (March end) 2-wheelers (Domestic sales Mn units) Passenger Vehicles (Domestic sales Mn units) Refrigerators (Production Mn units) Cement (mn tn) Home loans outstanding (Rs. bn)
2008 8,064,903 1.6 6.1 174 2,603
2009 8,439,786 1.6 6.7 187 2,794
2010 10,511,009 2.0 8.0 207 3,009
2011 13,302,335 2.5 8.7 216 3,499
2012 15,384,261 2.6 9.9 230 3,971
2013 15,753,563 2.7 11.1 248 4,567
2014 16,890,778 2.5 10.7 256 5,386
2015 18,433,027 2.6 12.0 270 6,285
2016 18,938,727 2.8 11.9 283 7,468
2017 19,928,958 3.1 13.1 280 8,601
2018 23,007,691 3.3 13.5 298 9,746
2019 24,460,688 3.4 15.6 337 11,601
2020 20,936,201 2.7 15.0 334 13,498
2021 18,397,111 2.5 11.2 294 14,591
2022 YTD 5,171,828 0.8 2.1 110 14,668
CAGR (since 2008 till 2021) 6.5 3.8 4.8 4.1 14.2
2022 YTD data Two-wheeler sales data as on July
'21, Passenger Vehicle sales data as on July 21,
Refrigerator data as on June 21, Cement sales
data as on July' 21, Housing loans data as on
July 2021, Source 2 wheelers, Cement passenger
vehicle CMIE database refrigerator production
data CMIE (IIP) database home loans
outstanding RBI Data on Sectoral deployment of
Bank credit (August 2021). Annualized Returns
11
Indias Economy May Grow gt6 p.a.
Real GDP growth rate across 10 governments has
been 6.1 p.a. over the last 41 years 6.5 is a
good long-term assumption 8 is NOT a good
long-term assumption!
Source RBI and www.parliamentofindia.nic.in as
of March 2021. Note The number in red rectangle
is from a changed data series starting Jan 2015.
While a superior series, there is no comparable
number to equate the New with the Old. Most
economists deduct 0 to 1.5 from the New to
equate to the Old therefore under Modi, the
GDP has been at 5.9 at best matching the 5.6
under the BJP-led coalition government of
Vajpayee that resulted in a rout for the BJP at
the time of the next election in 2004! Please
note that data used for World GDP for 2017 is a
median Estimate since World Bank data is not yet
available and India GDP data is governments
second advance estimate released at the end of
May 2021.
12
Dont Be Distracted By Global Macro Economic
Activity Led To A 10x
Growth In Earnings
Source CLSA and Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of
August 31, 2021 CY 21 and CY 22 are estimate
numbers Past Performance may or may not be
sustained in future
13
Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund
Scheme Objective To achieve long-term capital
appreciation by investing primarily in shares of
companies that will typically be included in the
SP BSE 200 Index and are in a position to
benefit from the anticipated growth and
development of the Indian economy and its markets
14
Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund A Must have
Equity Diversified Fund
14
  • Value Oriented Equity Diversified Fund since
    March 2006
  • Well balanced portfolio Typically, 25 to 40
    stocks, across sectors
  • Instrumental for Long Term Financial Goals like
    Retirement, Childs Education, Childs Marriage
    Wealth Creation
  • A disciplined research and investment process
  • Low portfolio turnover Buy after Conviction,
    Hold it for long
  • Holds shares or cash No derivatives, No hedging

15
Our Investment Criteria Value
15
  • Evaluate
  • The business of the company
  • The environment in which it operates
  • The management, and their long-term goals
  • Can the financials support the long-term goals?
  • Analyze
  • The stock price of the company based on
    fundamentals relative to its peer group, its
    history, and the market
  • PER, PCF, P/BV, Div Yld, EV/EBITDA
  • Buy
  • Current price is generally 40 lower than our
    estimate of long-term value (in case of first
    time buy)
  • Sell
  • Current price is gt our estimate of long-term
    value.
  • Better Investment Alternatives.
  • Changed view of management,
  • Changed view of business

16
Our Macro Assumptions The 4 Inputs To Our
Bottom-up Stock Selection Process
16
Our estimate Current readings Comments
GDP, long-term 6.0 to 6.5 (Old Series) 1.6 (December 2020-March 2021) Strong recovery thwarted by Second wave. GDP growth for FY 22 to be lower at 9.8. Income support crucial
Inflation 5.0 to 5.5 6.3 CPI inflation is likely to remain close to the RBIs upper threshold of 6 in FY22.
10-year bond Long term 7.0 to 7.5 Short term 5.75-6.25 6.11 RBI managing bond yield curve with Bond purchases. However, inflation fear and potential policy normalization will likely put upward pressure on yields.
FX rates /-2 (INR /USD in a 73-78 band) INR/USD74.5 RBI dollar buying at record pace to arrest INR appreciation. RBI has enough FX reserves to buffer any sharp depreciation
Source Quantum Advisors estimates, as of June
2021
17
Quantums Bottom-Up Stock Selection Process
Clients get best of bottom-up ideas with a risk
control measurement for each sector Generally, lt
20 of the stocks we cover meet our Buy criteria
25 to 40 stocks
PORTFOLIO
Portfolio of stocks with broad exposure to
various sectors. Approved by the portfolio
team Reflects three broad themes domestic
consumption, exports and infrastructure
233 stocks
VALUE AND INTEGRITY SCREENING
Analysts study stocks in their sector (India)
with global comparison, travel worldwide, prepare
detailed projections. Regular research meetings
to review ideas and approve stocks for the
database. Consensus required. All stocks are
reviewed time to time generally within 180
days. We must trust the managements/founders
597 stocks
ADDRESSABLE UNIVERSE
Number of companies trading over US 1 million/day
Number of stocks mentioned are as per current
average trading volume value criteria. The number
of Stock in trading volume criteria, and in
portfolio will be changed from time to time based
on Investment Strategy of the scheme.
18
Portfolio Construction
Stock under active coverage? Volume INR 6.98 Crs
per day YES
No
To research team
Part of SP BSE-30 Index? No effect on decision
No
Below Buy limit?
Wait
YES What sector?
Indifferent guided by Research Portfolio of
25-40 stocks Investment Rules Minimum wt 2 at
cost Maximum wt 6 at cost Maximum wt 10 at
market value
Weights assigned to a stock are a function of
  1. Reliability of management
  2. Quality of earnings
  3. Stability of earnings
  4. Upside Potential
  5. Alternatives/Cash

Our portfolio turnover is typically 20,
suggesting a 5 year holding period. Please refer
Scheme Information Document of the Scheme for
complete Investment Strategy
19
Eicher Motors Valuations Signaled Optimal Entry
Point
19
Stocks referred above are illustrative and not
recommendation of Quantum Mutual Fund/AMC. The
Fund may or may not have any present or future
positions in these Stocks. The above information
of stocks which is already available in
publically access media for information and
illustrative purpose only and not an endorsement
/ views / opinion of Quantum Mutual Fund /AMC.
The above information should not be constructed
as research report or recommendation to buy or
sell of any stocks. Past Performance may or may
not be sustained in future. Source
www.screener.in
20
Idiosyncratic Risk Of Owning Reliance Group
20
Disclaimer Stocks referred above are
illustrative and not recommendation of Quantum
Mutual Fund/AMC. The Fund may or may not have any
present or future positions in these Stocks. The
above information of stocks which is already
available in publically access media for
information and illustrative purpose only and not
an endorsement / views / opinion of Quantum
Mutual Fund /AMC. The above information should
not be constructed as research report or
recommendation to buy or sell of any stocks. Past
Performance may or may not be sustained in
future. Note Data as of Sep 13, 2021 , Source
Google finance
21
Portfolio Reflects Value
21
QLTEVF As Of SP BSE-30 Index SP BSE-30 Index
Number of equity stocks 28 30
Median market capitalization (USD mn) 12,480 36 34,322
Weighted dividend yield 1.3 138 1.0
Weighted PER March 2023E 14.3x 67 21.2x
Weighted EPS Growth March 2023E 21.7 95 22.8
PEG Ratio (excludes cash) 0.66x 71 0.93x

T12M PE 24.1x 59 40.5x
Weightage of stocks with PER gt 20 65 88
Weightage of stocks with PER gt 30 50 69
Source Quantum AMC As of August 31, 2021 QLTEVF
- cash weight excluded SP BSE-30 Index
weight is based on free-float. SP BSE 30 Index
column depicts the QLTEVF as a percentage of SP
BSE 30 Index fundamentals. The figures mentioned
in WTD PER, WTD EPS and PEG ratio are calculated
on the basis of Bloomberg consensus estimates
for companies owned by the Composite as well as
the companies in the SP BSE 30 as of the
reporting date i.e. August 31, 2021. Past
Performance may or may not be sustained in future.
22
Avoid switching/redeeming to alternatives with
myopic outlook
22
Pre-tax amount of INR 1 lakh invested at inception
900,000
800,000
769,500
700,000
667,000
659,420
600,000
545,739
500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000
- Gold SP BSE Sensex TRI SP BSE 200
TRI QLTEVF Disclaimer Past performance may or
may not be sustained in future. The above data
should be reviewed in conjunction with detailed
performance of the scheme provided on slide
number 27 Note Data as on Aug 31,2021 Source
Monthly Factsheet - Aug 2021, www.gold.org for
Gold returns
23
Performance across the market cycles - (Mar 2006
August 2021)
Data as on 31st August 2021. Past performance may
or may not be sustained in future. This graph
should be reviewed in conjunction with detailed
performance of the scheme provided on slide
number 27 Source Bloomberg
24
Portfolio Outlook
24
  • Portfolio tuned towards cyclicals (Large Banks,
    NBFC Consumer discretionary) as the benefit
    the most from economic recovery. IT stocks in the
    portfolio benefiting from a global uptick in
    tech spends.
  • Business shift towards larger companies amidst
    economic turmoil is adding tailwind to our
    investee companies. Our 74 allocation is towards
    large caps 20 towards mid caps.
  • Portfolio stocks look comfortable after stress
    test - have strong balance-sheet or strong
    parentage to survive the downturn
  • Existing cash holding will be used to add new
    names in case of correction

25
Risks to the Recovery
25
Low Vaccine coverage increases probability of a
third wave. Festive season to start from Sep 2021
Job Losses amongst salaried employees and Rising
Inflation may impact consumer discretionary spend
Since the pandemic began, there has been a
reduction in number of employed by 20 million
Inflation in Raw materials and increase in Crude
prices may force RBI to raise interest rates
26
Portfolio Impact of Diversification
26
If you compound your money at 12 per year you
are better off than an investor who makes 25 in
one year and loses 20 in the next
Risk-Return Equity Debt Gold Equity Debt Equity Debt Gold
CAGR 11.29 11.43 13.28 7.20 11.22
Annualized SD 9.37 13.47 22.06 3.27 17.32
VAR -15.46 -22.23 -36.39 -5.39 -28.58
Maximum Drawdown 0.21 0.36 0.56 0.06 0.25
Sharpe Ratio 0.541 0.387 0.320 0.301 0.289
Time frame is November 2004 to August 2021. The
period is taken from 2004 since the asset
allocation weights are calculated based on
normalizing the historical monthly equity and
debt indicators. Given the normalization time
frame used in the strategy, data availability for
certain parameters beyond the time frame analyzed
was a constraint. Compiled by Quantum
AMC Equity-Debt-Gold in ratio of 40-40-20.
Equity-Debt allocated in 60-40 range
The most diversified strategy yields similar
returns with the lower volatility, compared to a
pure equity strategy
Based on Sensex Index, Crisil Composite Bond Fund
Index, and Domestic Gold Prices Note Past
performance may or may not be sustained in the
future
27
Performance of Quantum Long Term Equity Value
Fund
Direct Plan Growth Option
The Scheme is co-managed by Mr. Sorbh Gupta and
Mr. Nilesh Shetty. Mr. Sorbh Gupta is the Fund
Manager effective from December 1, 2020. Mr.
Nilesh Shetty is the Fund Manager effective from
March 28, 2011.
Period Current Value of 10,000 Invested at the beginning of a given period Current Value of 10,000 Invested at the beginning of a given period Current Value of 10,000 Invested at the beginning of a given period
Period Benchmark Additional Benchmark Benchmark Additional Benchmark
Period Scheme Returns () SP BSE 200 TRI () SP BSE Sensex TRI () Scheme (Rs) SP BSE 200 TRI (Rs) SP BSE Sensex TRI (Rs)
1 year 56.50 55.45 50.55 15,650 15,545 15,055
3 years 11.34 14.96 15.49 13,805 15,198 15,412
5 years 10.91 15.82 16.48 16,790 20,853 21,451
7 years 11.35 13.93 13.00 21,251 24,953 23,572
10 years 14.27 15.15 14.72 38,000 41,064 39,529
Since Inception (13th Mar 2006) 14.09 13.04 12.96 76,950 66,700 65,942
Past performance may or may not be sustained in
the future. Load is not taken into consideration
in scheme returns calculation. Data as of 31st
August 2021 Returns are calculated on the basis
of Compounded Annualized Growth Rate (CAGR).
with effect from February 01,2020 benchmark has
been changed from SP Sensex TRI to SP BSE 200
TRI. As TRI data is not available since inception
of the scheme, benchmark performance is
calculated using composite CAGR SP BSE 200 index
PRI Value from March 13, 2006 to July 31, 2006
and TRI Value since August 1, 2006 For
performance of other Schemes Managed by Mr. Sorbh
Gupta please see slide number 31 and for
performance of other Schemes Managed by Mr.
Nilesh Shetty please see slide 31
28
Other Schemes managed by Sorbh Gupta and Nilesh
Shetty
Quantum Tax Saving Fund Mr. Sorbh Gupta is the
Fund Manager effective from October 1, 2016.
Period 1 year 1 year 3 years 3 years 5 years 5 years
Scheme Returns () Benchmark Returns () Scheme Returns () Benchmark Returns () Scheme Returns () Benchmark Returns ()
Quantum Tax Saving Fund- Direct Plan (Gr) 56.15 55.45 11.30 14.96 11.03 15.82
Quantum Tax Saving Fund- Regular Plan (Gr) 55.39 55.45 10.80 14.96 N.A. N.A.
Past performance may or may not be sustained in
the future. Data as of 31st August 2021 SP
BSE 200 TRI. With effect from February 01,2020
benchmark has been changed from SP Sensex TRI to
SP BSE 200 TRI. Returns are net of total
expenses and are calculated on the basis
of Compounded Annualized Growth Rate (CAGR). Mr.
Sorbh Gupta co-manages 2 scheme of the Quantum
Mutual Fund. Quantum Multi Asset Fund of
Funds Mr. Chirag Mehta and Mr. Nilesh Shetty are
Fund Managers effective from July 11, 2012.
Period 1 year 1 year 3 years 3 years 5 years 5 years
Scheme Returns () Benchmark Returns () Scheme Returns () Benchmark Returns () Scheme Returns () Benchmark Returns ()
Quantum Multi Asset Fund of FundsDirect Plan (Gr) 13.75 18.69 9.51 12.65 8.57 11.41
Quantum Multi Asset Fund of FundsRegular Plan (Gr) 13.33 18.69 9.23 12.65 NA NA
Past performance may or may not be sustained in
the future. Load is not taken into consideration
in Scheme Return Calculation. Data as of 31st
August 2021 Benchmark has been changed from
Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index (40) SP BSE
SENSEX Total Return Index (40) Domestic price
of gold (20) to CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index
(20) SP BSE Total Return Index (40)
CRISIL Liquid Index (25) Domestic Price of
Gold (15) with effective from April 01, 2021. It
is a customized index and it is rebalanced daily
Returns are net of total expenses and are
calculated on the basis of Compounded Annualized
Growth Rate (CAGR). Mr. Chirag Mehta manages 5
schemes of the Quantum Mutual Fund. Mr. Nilesh
Shetty manages 2 schemes of the Quantum Mutual
Fund.
29
Product Label
30
Disclaimer Terms of Use
The data in this presentation are meant for
general reading purpose only and are not meant to
serve as a professional guide/investment advice
for the readers. This presentation has been
prepared on the basis of publicly available
information, internally developed data and other
sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action
has been suggested or offered based upon the
information provided herein, due care has been
taken to endeavor that the facts are accurate and
reasonable as on date. Quantum AMC shall make
modifications and alterations to the performance
and related data from time to time as may be
required as per SEBI Mutual Fund Regulations.
Readers are advised to seek independent
professional advice and arrive at an informed
investment decision before making any investment.
None of the Sponsors, the Investment Manager,
the Trustee, their respective Directors,
Employees, Affiliates or Representatives shall be
liable for any direct, indirect, special,
incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary
damages, including lost profits arising in any
way from the data/information/opinions contained
in this presentation. The Quantum AMC shall make
modifications and alterations to the performance
and related data from time to time as may be
required. Please visit www.QuantumMF.com to
read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in
the Scheme are not being offered a guaranteed or
assured rate of return and there can be no
assurance that the schemes objective will be
achieved and the NAV of the scheme may go up and
down depending upon the factors and forces
affecting securities market. Investment in mutual
fund units involves investment risk such as
trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk,
default risk including possible loss of capital.
Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual
Fund does not indicate the future performance of
the Scheme. Statutory Details Quantum Mutual
Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust
under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor
Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of
Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-). Trustee
Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited.
Investment Manager Quantum Asset Management
Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and
Investment Manager are incorporated under the
Companies Act, 1956. 15th September 2021 Mutual
fund investments are subject to market risks,
read all scheme related documents carefully.
31
31
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