MIGRANTS

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MIGRANTS ILLEGAL/IRREGULAR ECONOMIC ACTIVITES
IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC (THE DELPHI SURVEY)

• Dušan Drbohlav
• Lenka Lachmanová
• Charles University in Prague
• Faculty of Science
• Department of Social Geography and Regional
  Development
• drbohlav_at_natur.cuni.cz

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Results based onThe research project done
for The Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs of
the Czech Republic International Migration and
Migrants Illegal/Irregular Activities The Czech
Republic in a Broader European Contextsee
www.geography.cz/illegal.htm and The research
programme No. MSM 0021620831 of the Ministry of
Education, Youth and Sport of the Czech Republic
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THE DELPHI METHOD

• A procedure to obtain the most reliable
  consensus of opinion of a group of experts by a
  series of intensive questionnaires interspersed
  with controlled opinion feedback
• Anonymity and no direct contact between
  respondents
• Forms of the Delphi method
• a) Conventional Delphi - basic principles
  statistical presentation of answers, used for
  predicting future development, based on a
  consensus among experts
• b) Policy Delphi - to analyse policy problems,
  focus upon policy or strategical measures
• Conditions that support applying the Delphi
• Complexity of the research problem (different
  policy fields involved)
• When objective data are lacking
• When designing a common future scenario

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THE DELPHI SURVEY 2005 - 2006

• Small-scale research of two rounds (n32,23)
• Conventional Policy Delphi methods
• FIRST ROUND (November-February 2005/2006) 32
  respondents (62 were contacted)
• SECOND ROUND (May-June 2006) - 23 respondents
• Respondents professional background
• 13 academic sphere
• 7 GOs
• 7 NGOs
• 2 representatives of international organizations
  (IOM, UNHCR)
• 1 politician
• 1 entrepreneur
• 1 representative of Trade Unions

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THE DELPHI SURVEY 2005- 2006 SELECTED RESEARCH
QUESTIONS

• What forms of migrants illegal economic
  activities do we have in the Czech Republic?
• Why do we have them?
• Who are illegal immigrants?
• How many illegal immigrants stay in the Czech
  Republic? How many of them may come in the
  future?
• What impacts do migrants illegal economic
  activities have on the country of destination,
  the employer, the immigrant himself/herself and
  the country of origin?
• What important measures should be applied to
  eliminate (to successfully combat)
  illegal/irregular immigration?
• Future development?

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FORMS OF MIGRANTS ILLEGAL/IRREGULAR ECONOMIC
ACTIVITIES (Delphi II, n22)
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REASONS FOR MIGRANTS ILLEGAL/IRREGULAR ECONOMIC
ACTIVITIES (Delphi II, n23)Scale from 1 to 5 (1
for key reason, ..., 5 for unimportant reason)
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MOST IMPORTANT SOURCE COUNTRIES (in terms of the
probable amount of their illegal workers in the
Czech Republic)
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SECTORIAL STRUCUTRE OF FOREIGN ILLEGAL LABOUR
(Delphi II, n20)
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ESTIMATION OF SIZE OF FOREIGN ILLEGAL LABOUR
(Delphi I, n27)
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MOST SIGINIFICANT POSITIVE IMPACTS OF MIGRANTS
ILLEGAL/IRREGULAR ECONOMICACTIVITIES ON THE
CZECH REPUBLIC (Delphi II)
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MOST SIGINIFICANT NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF MIGRANTS
ILLEGAL/IRREGULAR ECONOMICACTIVITIES ON THE
CZECH REPUBLIC (Delphi II)
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DEVELOPMENT OF MIGRANTS ILLEGAL/IRREGULAR
ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES OVER TIME (Delphi I, n27)
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FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF MIGRANTSILLEGAL ECONOMIC
ACTIVITIES IN GIVEN ECONOMIC SECTORS (Delphi II,
n22)
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POLICY GOALS TO BE ACHIEVED (Delphi II, n23) -
in terms of their desirability

• Rating of 47 goals in terms of their desirability
• Scale from 1 very desirable to 5 very
  undesirable

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POLICY GOALS TO BE ACHIEVED (Delphi II, n23) -
in terms of their feasibility

• Rating of 47 goals in terms of their feasibility
• Scale from 1 easily feasible to 5 strongly
  unfeasible

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POLICY GOALS TO BE ACHIEVED (Delphi II) -
important goals to apply

• The most desirable goals which are easily feasible

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POLICY MEASURES TO BE APPLIED ON THE EU-LEVEL
(Delphi II, n21)

• The most important measures on the EU-level

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CONCLUSIONS I

• Small consensus among experts in assessing
  amount, structure and future development of
  illegal immigration in the Czech Republic
• Convergence in opinions
• Assessing negative as well as positive impacts of
  illegal economic activities of foreigners
• Dominance of Ukrainians
• Significant presence of illegal immigrants in
  construction
• Increase of the volume of illegal immigrants
  working in the household services in the near
  future
• Criticising labour market restrictions imposed by
  old EU countries concerning workers from the
  new EU-countries

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CONCLUSIONS II

• Convergence in desirable solution of illegal
  economic activities of immigrants
• More harmonization
• More information
• More flexible and simple legislation
• Harder controls and sanctions (for corruption,
  illegality etc.)
• An effective policy is thus based on
• spreading information, increasing flexibility,
• simplifying legislation and stricter sanctions