Overview

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CIVILIAN ANALYSIS FORECASTING TOOLS
Dr. Engin Crosby U.S.
Army, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary
(Civilian Personnel Policy) SFCP-PSO
Oct 1999
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What are the civilian analysis forecasting tools
Analysis
Forecasting
(WASS) Workforce Analysis and Support System
(CIVFORS) Civilian Forecasting System
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What is the WASS?

• Frequency
• Univariate
• Correlation
• Chi-square
• Means test
• T-test
• Paired T-test
• Analysis of variance
• Regression analysis
• Trend analysis
• Graphic frequency analysis

SAS based analysis tool Simple to complex
analysis routines designed for use by
non-analyst/ non-programmer type of functional
personnel
Analysis
(WASS) Workforce Analysis and Support System
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What is CIVFORS?

• that enables Army civilian managers to
  reliably forecast workforce trends

A mathematical forecasting system-

• by category
• seven years into future

Forecasting
(CIVFORS) Civilian Forecasting System
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Uses of WASS/CIVFORS for CPMS XXI Phase
ICivilian Objective Force

• What is a Civilian Objective Force (COF) A
  future work force that will successfully meet the
  mission in terms of its overall size, type
  (permanent or temporary civilian employees,
  contractors), occupational mix, quality level
  (education and experience), and other factors.
• THE METHODOLOGY
• Phase I
• (1) PAST to PRESENT TRENDS - BASELINE -
  COMPLETED
• (2) FUTURE STATE REQUIRED - UNCONSTRAINED
  - IN PROCESS
• (3) THE DELTA - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
  THE
• PRESENT AND FUTURE STATE
• Phase II
• (1) WHAT IS NEEDED TO MAKE THE FUTURE
  STATE HAPPEN
• (2) THE GIVEN BUDGET CONTRAINTS
• (3) THE DELTA BETWEEN WHAT IS NEEDED TO
  ACHIEVE THE
• UNCONSTRAINED FUTURE STATE WHAT
  CAN BE ACHIEVED
• UNDER BUDGETARY CONSTRAINTS
• Phase III
• IDENTIFICATION OF WHAT CAN CANNOT
  BE DONE WHAT IS
• NEEDED

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Uses of WASS in CPMS XXI

• Creation of baseline data - for a subset of the
  population Career Programs
• (1) Profiles over a 23- year period -
  strength, accessions, losses (optional
  early retirements plus resignations)
• (2) Profile dimensions - Age, Years of
  Service, Grade, Education Level, Gender, Race
  and National Origin, Retirement Eligibility

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All FY snapshots are month-end September except
9706
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Baseline Data Other Input

• In addition to the data profiles - Evaluation
  Templates were provided to proponents to gather
  more input on
• (1) Trends to current state to
  determine if anything broke, what was good or bad
  about the way the force downsized, etc.,
• (2) Any other info not included in the
  7- data dimension profiles
• Recommended approaches to examining trends -
• How trends changed?
• End to end snapshot comparisons
• Magnitude of changes overtime
• Comparisons to expected
• Why did strength change the way it did?
• Examined accessions, losses, losses by type,
  other inflows and outflows

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The template of questions for baseline
evaluations

• Since FY 89
• 1. How has your overall functional
  strength declined? What is your rate of decline?
  
• 2. How has the occupational mix and
  strength changed? What are the occupations you
  are showing growth and decreases in and what are
  the rates of change? Any new occupations?
• 3. How has the strength changed by type
  (temporary, permanent, part-time, contractor) by
  occupation?
• 4. How has the quality and composition of
  your on-board strength, accessions, and losses
  changed by education level, years of service,
  age, gender, race/national origin, and grade in
  each occupation?
• 5. What are the negative and positive
  impacts of these changes on your work force and
  on ability to meet todays mission?
• 6. If current trends continue, what would
  be the baseline projections of your overall work
  force strength, occupational mix, type of
  employees and their quality and composition?
  

NOTE There are other critical series of
questions also listed that will help you navigate
your way through the data and help you provide
the best possible answers to the above questions.

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Uses of CIVFORS in CPMS XXI

• Utilizes a life-cycle modeling approach to
  predict the strength of the workforce through the
  POM by a variety of personnel and management
  attributes.
• Supports personnel policy modeling and what if
  scenario analysis.
• Computes optimal hiring plans to align the
  workforce with projected force structure targets.

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Types of projections
1. Baseline - NO GOAL - if the past 5 years of
history were to repeat itself where
would we end up in the next 7
years? 2. Baseline - GOAL - if target
budgeted/authorized spaces history repeats
where would we end up and will we
be able to meet the targets 7 years out? 3.
Future - If future rates were different i.e.,
history did not repeat itself and
targets were defined in other
terms than budget what would happen
over the next 7 years? 4.
What if - If can translate into specific
terms - can model impacts (1)
Doubled incentives for VSIPs (2)
Contracted Out (3)
Automated more (4)
Changed the mix within budgeted/authorized limit
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Workforce optimization via forecasting?
CIVFORS-uses Army-defined authorizations to
develop optimal hiring plans. It allows the best
workforce distribution over all targeted
population groups.
Strength vs Targets for Army Civilians in Command
A and Training Program B for Grades X and Y
St Gr X Target Gr X St Gr Y Target Gr Y
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Projections using 16 different dimension
combinations

• Gender
• Race/National Origin
• Appointment Type
• Supervisory Code
• Work Schedule
• Age Group
• Years of Service Group
• PATCO

• Major Command
• Grade
• Career Program
• Blue/White Collar Code
• Function Designator
• Employee Tenure
• Occupational Series
• Pay Plan Group

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CIVFORS Design ?

• Object-oriented design - C
• Mathematical formulation software - AMPL
• Optimization software - CPLEX
• Relational database - ORACLE
• GUI interface - Visual Basic
• Windows NT server
• Internet-based access/installation - TCP/IP

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Current CIVFORS Environment Distributed
processing on three tiers -
CIVFORS-PC
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Current WASS Environment -IBM Mainframe
WASS - Mainframe
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Future directions WASS /CIVFORS ?
Web-based Analytic Tools
WASS / CIVFORS worldwide systems
TCP/IP
HTTP
TCP/IP
TCP/IP
TCP/IP
TCP/IP
HTTP
HTTP
2000
Web Server
TCP/IP LAN
Database Server
Database / SAS Server
Application Server
Application Server
Application Server
Application Server
Application Server
Application Server
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What was learned via WASS CIVFORS?

• How we downsized
• Aging issue and rate of change
• Functional differences in age profiles
• Changes in retirement eligibility patterns
  
  
  
  
  and rates of change by eligibility
  category
• Changes in Occupational strength and
  
  
  
  
  composition

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Examples of generated info from the
WASS/CIVFORS Age Distribution from past to
present and into the future (under a no change
assumption)
Strength
Drawdown Impact
FY89 to FY 08 (Greater Less 40 yrs)
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Example of Types of Data Generated a
Sub-population (under no change scenario)
Retirement Eligible Distribution
Percent

• Notes Assumptions 1) Limited hiring will
  continue, 2) Majority of retirement ineligibles
  will remain with Army.
• Projections to 2010 assume a steady state
  following 2003.
• In 2010, about 56 of the employees in
  population x will be eligible for retirement.

• Notes
• Projected strength assumes a steady state from
  2003 forward.

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The challenges still ahead The COF
definition via CIVFORS
Types - COF defined in terms of a. Budgeted and
authorized spaces - b. Budgeted/authorized with
a desired mix - c. Budgeted/authorize with
desired mix - plus anticipated
policy dictates e.g., NPR - Objective-
AGAINST
Projected structure
Desired force COF
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Challenge 1. What should we look like in the
future?(a) Functional level
What is the best articulation of a FOF? One way
is to roll in all other factors into Functions by
Grade. Why Function ? Cut across Army is by
function. Why Grade ? Grade is the only tangible
costing unit that exists at the present.
Grades Future FOF A

Grades Baseline FOF A
Grades
Delta Grades
COF Alt 1
Baseline FOF A Current State Cost is XX - Grade
is cost and rolled into grade are all other
factors considered in baseline evals - size in
terms of spaces and faces , skills, quality,
experience, representation, years of service
distribution
Current State Cost is XX - Grade is cost and
rolled into grade are all other factors
considered in baseline evals - in terms of spaces
and faces , skills, quality, experience,
representation, years of service distribution
The difference between the baseline and the
future in terms of all assumptions about the
future considered and rolled into functional
grade structure
Why COF Alt 1 is needed and how much is it going
to cost

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COF Alt 1 articulation of needsCost and
Cost/Benefit termsAn example of what can
accompany a FOF Plan
Why FOF Alt 1 is needed and how much is it going
to cost
Justification 1. Portion of Manager Grades
have to be grown - dollar cost is x and has to be
invested now to attain 5 years out. 2. Portion of
Manager Grades have to be given pay incentives to
stay on - cost is w. 3. AO level more turnover
therefore more training and replacement costs -
costs r. 4. AO Assist level - more computer
literate than before who need to keep up with
technology - cost of quals and continuous
retraining p.

Managers
AOs AOs Assists
Grade Structure of FOF

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Challenge 2. What should we look like? (b)
Aggregate level - Should-Be StateArticulation of
Future, Justifications, Required Actions
How do we Identify the Future Should-Be State
Some ways are
COF

• 1) Consolidate all functional assumptions about
  the future and translate them into implications
  with as much specificity as possible - IN PROCESS
  
• 2) Search for relationship between the uniformed
  Army and civilians and use as a basis for
  projecting the civilian requirements into the
  future -
• IN PROCESS
• 3) Estimate workload of the future - IN PROCESS
• 4) Designate the aggregate level grade
  distribution to sustain Army capabilities - IN
  PROCESS - Comparisons to industry, Non-DoD
  Government, DoD minus Army, Uniformed Personnel
  Expected retirements by grade and many other
  analyses
• 5) Look at what other agencies are doing?
• 6) Use all 5 sources to do the best you can
  to prepare a viable plan given military
  missions
• 7) DO NOTHING ???? NOT AN OPTION!!!!

FOFs

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