MOVES: EPAs new generation mobile source emission model

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MOVES EPAs new generation mobile source
emission model
John Koupal U.S. EPA Office of Transportation
Air Quality AMPO Meeting July 19, 2004
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What Is MOVES?

• MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator
• New software framework intended to
• Replace MOBILE NONROAD
• Expand Capabilities
• Additional Sources Aircraft, Commercial Marine,
  Locomotive
• Additional Pollutants Greenhouse Gases
• Additional Scope Life Cycle Analysis

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Why A New Approach?

• Improve the science
• Requires data collection - especially in-use,
  on-road data
• Opportunity exists with new technology to vastly
  improve quality
• Improve the software
• Current questions exceed current tools
• Analyses at finer scales
• Cross-pollutant and cross-source impacts
• Toxics, PM, Greenhouse Gases
• Respond to external review
• National Research Council, Modeling Mobile
  Source Emissions

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Key Changes from MOBILE

• Inventory estimation
• MOBILE estimates emission factors (grams/mile)
• Multi-scale analysis
• Emission rates on modal basis
• MOBILE rates based on aggregate driving cycles
• Software framework
• Relational database structure
• Graphical User Interface
• Object-oriented programming approach

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MOVES2004 the first step

• On-road energy (total, petroleum, fossil) and
  emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O
• U.S., state or county level
• 1999 through 2050
• Well-to-Pump energy/emissions via GREET
• Broad range of what-if analyses
• Foundation for full MOVES implementation

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MOVES Long-Term Schedule

• Current thinking is that MOVES would not replace
  MOBILE6 or NONROAD in time to be used for 8-hour
  SIP analyses
• Specific milestones
• MOVES2005 Draft Aircraft, Commercial Marine,
  Locomotives
• MOVES2006 Final A/CM/L, Draft on-road criteria
  pollutants toxics
• MOVES2007 Final on-road (MOBILE6 replacement),
  Draft off-road

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MOVES Software Framework

• Language Java
• Fleet, activity, emission rate data stored in
  relational database
• Open-source relational database system (MySQL)
• Graphical user interface or batch mode
• Designed for single or multiple-computer
  processing

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MOVES2004 GUI (Main Window)
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Geography
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Vehicle/Fuel Choices
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Time Spans
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Roadway Types
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Pollutants/Processes
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Default Fleet Activity Data Sources

• R.L. Polk
• Registration data, especially used for light duty
• VIUS97
• Census survey of truck data
• FHWA
• VMT data and registration data
• Annual Energy Outlook (NEMS)
• VMT and technology projections
• Driving Surveys
• Real-worlds driving patterns by source type, road
  type, average speed

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MOVES Source Types
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Advanced Technologies in MOVES
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Advanced Vehicle Fuel Strategy
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Life Cycle The Big Picture
Vehicle Cycle
Fuel Cycle
Pump to Wheels
Well to Pump
Well-To-Wheel (WTW) is a subset of Life Cycle
Analysis
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GREET Pathway Options
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MOVES/GREET provides unprecedented what-if
capability
Vehicle Technology Fuel Penetration
Advanced Vehicle Fuel Strategy
Energy Emission Performance
Fleet Growth Activity Patterns
Fleet Activity Database
Emission Rate Database
Fuel Pathway Options
GREET
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Looking Ahead

• Aircraft, Commercial Marine, Locomotive
• On-road criteria pollutant/toxics
• Evaporative emissions
• High emitter and I/M design
• Multi-scale implementation
• Includes coordination with DOT on TRANSIMS

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MOVES Analysis Scales
Macroscale
Mesoscale
Microscale
Sources OAQPS, ORD
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Custom Implementations
Link Zone Level
County Level
Intersection Level
Fleet Activity Data
Fleet Activity Data
or
Fleet Activity Data
or
County Level
Core Model
Emission Rate Database
Met Fuel Data
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Planned Implementations

• U.S. National Inventory (macroscale)
• Default county-level emissions
• Local inventory development with user-supplied
  inputs
• On-road, off-road, aircraft, commercial marine,
  locomotives
• Link-Based (mesoscale)
• Based on output from travel demand model
• Intersection Modeling (microscale)
• In conjunction with CAL3QHC
• TRANSIMS
• MOVES will replace current emission module

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Long-Term Plan

• Custom implementations developed by users to meet
  specific use cases, e.g.
• State-specific implementation
• Commercial transportation models
• New generation dispersion models
• Control strategies

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MOVES Resources

• Web site
• http//www.epa.gov/otaq/ngm.htm
• Email Listserver
• EPA-MOBILENEWS
• Email address
• mobile_at_epa.gov