North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment

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North Dakota StatewideHousing Needs Assessment
Review of Findings and Data Products Bismarck,
North Dakota December 15, 2004

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center

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Presentation Objectives
1. Explain purpose, objectives, and process of
the housing assessment
2. Review of main findings
3. Suggestions on how to use and interpret data
and tables
4. Overview of data products produced by the
needs assessment project
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Purpose of the Housing Assessment
1. Provide an overview of current housing trends
2. Show population dynamics and corresponding
shifts in housing
3. Provide objective assessment of future housing
needs
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Objectives of the Assessment
1. Develop a printed document that profiles the
current and future housing needs of the state,
regions, reservations, counties, major cities
2. Design a companion tool that offers greater
detail for in-depth housing analysis
3. Provide an on-line presence, that can be
updated, and allows users ready access to all
materials
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Housing Assessment Process
1. Representatives from NDHFA, NDDOC-Division of
Community Services, and Advisory Board served as
steering committee
2. Reviewed other regional states efforts to
determine common approaches and data
3. Organized process in stages with oversight and
feedback for each stage
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Stages in the needs assessment

• 1. Identify key components of the analysis
• Demographic/economic trends
• Housing stock
• Affordable housing
• Housing conditions
• Special populations
• Housing supply
• Housing demand
• Land use issue

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Stages in the needs assessment

• 2. Design/Implement survey of key leaders
• Represent all levels of geography
• Represent major stakeholders in housing
• Key themes
• Housing supply/demand issues
• Housing quality and affordability
• Barriers to development
• Special needs populations
• Concerns regarding housing policy/programs

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Stages in the needs assessment

• 3. Develop appropriate means to disseminate data
  and findings
• Comprehensive
• Easy to access
• Design to allow for updating
• Useful as a tool for policy makers, planners,
  developers, and lay audience

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Final Products for the statewide housing needs
assessment

• Final report
• Printed document serves as summary
• Contains 12 tables profiling housing needs
• Includes key leaders survey results
• Detailed tables
• Series of nearly 100 tables expanding detail of
  report
• Each table includes all geography
• Website -- (SHARP) statewide housing assessment
  resource project
• User select geography and tables
• Links to all products

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Overview of Key Findings

• Review Population Changes
• Explore Historical Housing Patterns
• Examine Housing Demand
• Look at Key Leaders Survey
• Finish with Recommendations

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Population Changes
1. Population consolidation
2. Shifting age distribution
3. Changing household composition
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Population Changes
1. Population consolidation
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N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution,1900-200
0
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses.
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North Dakota Cities by Size, 1960 and 2000
urban
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15
rural
2000 data include 10 Census Designated Places
(CDPs).
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census
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North Dakota
Cass County
McIntosh County
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Population Density
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Housing Considerations

• Rural communities are shrinking, except in
  amenity areas

- Large communities expanding with increased
dependency on commuting
- Growing imbalance between urban and rural
housing needs
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Population Changes
2. Shifting age distribution
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Net Domestic Migration Rates Per 100 Persons in
the United States by County 1990 to 1999
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(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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1980 Census Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
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1990 Census Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
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2000 Census Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
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2005 Projections Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
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2010 Projections Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
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2015 Projections Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
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Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and
OlderNorth Dakota 1890 to 2002
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2000Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2020Source North Dakota State Data Center,
North Dakota Population Projections 2005 to
2020, Sept. 2002
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The Elderly 65 plus
Persons Age 65 and Older as a Percentage of Total
Persons by State 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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The Elderly 85 plus
Persons Age 85 and Older as a Percentage of Total
Persons by State 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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PERCENT CHANGE IN PERSONS , NORTH DAKOTA2000 to
2010 2000 to 2020(Source U.S. Census Bureau)
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Housing Considerations

• Dramatically increasing elderly population

- Loss of young adults in rural areas
- Shift in early retirees to amenity locations,
but then return migration of older seniors
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Population Changes
3. Changing household composition
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Household Composition North Dakota
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Households by Type
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Household Types
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PERSONS LIVING ALONE1-Person Households 1940
to 2000(Source U.S. Census Bureau)
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Percentage Change in the Number of Elderly
Householders Living Alone (65 Years and
Older)North Dakota by County 1990 to 2000
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Housing Considerations

• Small number of families with children

- Growing number of single person households
- Increasing proportion of non-family households
- Increasing elderly and pre-retirees
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Housing Trends
1. Shifts in housing stock
2. Growing need for affordable housing
3. Housing conditions good
4. Growing demand for special population
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Housing Trends
1. Shifts in housing stock
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NORTH DAKOTA HOME OWNERSHIP RATESAnnual
Homeownership Rates 1984 to 2003(Source U.S.
Census Bureau)
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Owner-Occupied Housing Units
Percent Change in Owner-Occupied Housing Units by
County 1990 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Percent Change in Renter-Occupied Housing Units
by County 1990 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Age of Housing
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Housing Units by Structure
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Housing Trends
2. Growing need for affordable housing
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Affordable Housing
Benchmark housing should be within 30 of
household income (statewide MFI52,500)
- 43 of current owner or renter-occupied homes
are affordable to those below 30 MFI
- 21 of current owner-occupied and 17 of
renter-occupied homes are not affordable to those
between 31-50 MFI
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LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING
ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2005(SOURCE CENTER ON
BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES MARCH 17, 2004)
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LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING
ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2009(SOURCE CENTER ON
BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES MARCH 17, 2004)
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Housing Trends
3. Housing conditions good
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Housing Conditions
General housing conditions in North Dakota are
very good
- Less than ½ percent of owner-occupied units
lack complete plumbing or kitchen facilities
- About 1 of owner-occupied units and 4 of
renter-occupied units are overcrowded (more than
1 person per room)
- ½ percent of renter-occupied lack plumbing and
1 lack kitchen facilities
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Housing Trends
4. Growing demand for special populations
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Special Populations
Survey of homeless indicate unmet need for 2,136
persons --- 40 are families with children

• Need for low and moderate-income elderly
• - cost burden exceed 30 of household income for
  15 of elderly (55 years and over) owner-occupied
  units and 35 in renter-occupied units

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Projected Housing Demand
Method

• Based on age-specific distribution of households
  (using 2000 census cross-checked with 1990
  census)
• Applied coefficients to age-specific population
  projections (by geography)
• Developed forecasts for age, income, type of
  homebuyer

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Projected Housing Demand
Findings Between 2000-2015

• Age of householder
• 15-34 will decline 8 (nearly 5,000)
• 35-54 decline 15 (over 15,000)
• 55-74 will increase 50 (over 29,800)
• 75 and over will increase 38 (over 12,500)

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Projected Housing Demand
Findings Between 2000-2015

• Income of householder
• Below 30 MFI will increase 15 (7,426)
• 31-50 MFI will increase 12 (4,789)
• 51-60 MFI will increase 9 (3,490)
• Above 115 will increase 8 (2,555)

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Projected Housing Demand
Findings Between 2000-2015

• Type of householder
• First-time homebuyer will decline 9
• Upscale homebuyer will increase 8
• Low-income homebuyer will increase 6
• Moderate homebuyer will increase 8
• Elderly homebuyer will increase 42

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Projected Housing Supply
Method

• Two methods used to forecast housing supply
• Historical trends in housing 1990-2000 (using
  average annual changes in units)
• Based on projected changes in household (adjusted
  for vacancies)
• Comparing the two highlights the shifts due to
  population dynamics

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Projected Housing Demand
Method

• Based on age-specific distribution of households
  (using 2000 census cross-checked with 1990
  census)
• Applied coefficients to age-specific population
  projections (by geography)
• Developed forecasts for age, income, type of
  homebuyer

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Projected Supply
Findings

• Statewide, current trends indicate 1 growth
  between 2000-2015 (additional 30,562 units
• Demand driven forecast more robust (additional
  increase of 32,157)
• Regions I, III, VII demand forecast greater than
  current housing growth pattern (due to elderly)
• Grand Forks unique

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Key Leaders Survey
Method

• Telephone survey of 183 key leaders
• County, major city, reservation, realtors,
  apartment association, builders, etc.
• Topics included
• Housing supply/demand
• Housing quality affordability
• Barriers to development
• Special needs population
• Policy/program concerns

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Key Leaders Survey
Findings

• Economic health of communities is good
• Visionary leadership
• Important local issues
• Economic development
• Retention of young adults
• Aging population
• Infrastructure
• Social issues/ special populations

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Key Leaders Survey
Findings

• Sufficient public housing
• Housing stock in good repair (except
  reservations)
• Affordable housing has changed little (exceptions
  larger cities and Region V)
• ¼ concerned about barriers to development
• Zoning, cost, available infrastructure,
  multi-family unit restrictions, lot size,
  agricultural land

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Recommendations

• Top priority--- elderly housing issues
• Older homes and need for rehabilitation
• Increase demand for extremely low, low, moderate
  income homes
• Special population needs
• Homeless
• Low income elderly
• Task force to explore innovative programs
• Cuts in Federal Programs

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Statewide Housing Needs Assessment Presentation
2004

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.nodak.edu
• Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc