Title: Management Class 2
1Management - Class 2
2Chapter 3Decision Making
- Spell out what triggered the problem.
- List at least four ways to define the problem,
and choose the best definition. - Propose at least five objectives for the person
making the decision - Recommend at least four possible alternative
solutions - Develop a Consequences Matrix for the decision
- Develop a Decision Matrix for the decision.
3Management Functions
- Planning is setting goals and deciding on
courses of action, developing rules and
procedures, developing plans (organizational,
employee), and forecasting (predicting) - Organizing
- Leading
- Controlling
4Decision Making
- Problem is a discrepancy between a desirable
and an actual situation. - Decision a choice from among the available
alternatives. - Three Degrees of Uncertainty
- Certainty the condition of knowing in advance
the outcome of a decision. - Uncertainty the absence of information about a
particular area of concern - Risk the chance that a particular outcome will
or will not occur. - Decision making is the process of developing and
analyzing alternatives and making a choice. - Define the problem
- Clarify your objectives
- Identify alternatives
- Analyze the consequences
- Make a choice
- Judgment the cognitive or thinking aspects of
the decision-making process.
5Classical Approach
- Assumptions on how managers make decisions.
- They have complete or perfect information about
the situation. - Could distinguish perfectly between the problem
and its symptoms. - Could identify all criteria and accurately weigh
all the criteria according to their preferences. - Knew all alternatives and could assess each
against a criterion. - Could make an optimal choice, without being
confused by irrational thought processes. - Reality
- No one has perfect knowledge of all the options
- Not enough time
- Can not unemotionally analyzed every single
option.
6Administrative Approach
- Decision makers try to be rational.
- Most people quickly reach a point of information
overload - They begin making errors by incorrectly
identifying some of the information - Give approximate responses.
- Lack the time to evaluate alternative
- Can not determine what the real problem is.
- Bounded Rationality the boundaries on rational
decision making imposed by ones capacity for
processing information. - As rational as their unique values, abilities,
and limited capacity for processing information
permits. - Satisfice they look for solutions until they
find a satisfactory one. - Risk Tolerance Cost vs Benefit
7The 101 Dumbest Moments in Business
- In a perfect world, businesses would be run with
the utmost integrity and competence. But ours is,
alas, an imperfect world. - By Jim Carvell, Adam Horowitz, Thomas Mucha, Apri
l 2002 Issue - 1. Houston, We Have a Problem, Part 1 Enron
states billions of dollars in extra revenue
through aggressive accounting and complicated
off-the-books partnerships managed by its own
executives, all the while ignoring warnings from
its employees and enriching its top executives at
the expense of its investors and workforce. And
it assumes none of this will ever come to light. - 2. A dozen Burger King marketing execs suffer
first- and second-degree burns while walking over
hot coals as part of a team-building retreat in
October. One of the injured, a VP for product
marketing aptly named Dana Frydman, tries to put
a positive spin on having her feet flame-broiled
like so much ground chuck. "It made you feel a
sense of empowerment and that you can accomplish
anything," she tells the Miami Herald. - 3. Banana Republic co-founders Mel and Patricia
Ziegler start ZoZa, an "athletic formalwear"
retailer, in late 2000. Mel says he expects sales
to reach 1 billion within seven years. Gary
Rieschel of Softbank Venture Capital invests
16.5 million, telling Business Week, "If you
have guts and you have capital, how can you not
be optimistic about the consumer market?" Here's
how ZoZa's designers revamp its spring 2001
line, intentionally making their dresses two
sizes smaller than labeled. Even the svelte are
outraged, and ZoZa's merchandise return rate
soars to 80 percent. The company shuts down in
May 2001, proving that, if the dress doesn't fit,
you must, uh, quit.
8The 101 Dumbest Moments in Business
- 5. Proving the old business-school saw that "any
idiot can sell a dollar for 80 cents,"
online-currency company Flooz.com in July
launches a special offer whereby American Express
platinum cardholders can buy 1,000 of Flooz
currency for just 800. - 6. A month later, Flooz.com ceases processing
transactions. It declares bankruptcy in November,
leaving those who bought Flooz currency stuck
with worthless e-dollars. - 21. NBC and the World Wrestling Federation plow
100 million into creating the XFL. The March 17
game between the Birmingham Thunderbolts and the
Las Vegas Outlaws scores a 1.6 Nielsen rating,
believed to be the lowest ever for any prime-time
network program. The league folds after one
season. - 27. Mobile Office Enterprise unveils the Express
Desk, which attaches a notebook computer to the
steering wheel of a car. For use only while
parked, of course.
9The 101 Dumbest Moments in Business
- Part 2 Not to be outdone, Eli Lilly sends a mass
e-mail in July to users of its antidepressant
Prozac but neglects to use the "bcc" header,
further depressing its customers by disclosing
their online identities to one another. - 31. An FBI investigation reveals that, since
1995, McDonald's (MCD) prize contests, including
its popular Monopoly game, have been rigged by
eight individuals, including one who worked for
the firm McDonald's hired to run the contests.
The eight allegedly conspired to corner the
market on the winning game pieces without
enduring that arduous eating-food-from-McDonald's
step. - 39. After filing for Chapter 11, declaring their
intention to liquidate the company's assets, and
ending health-care benefits for retirees,
Polaroid executives file a request in bankruptcy
court to distribute an estimated 19 million in
"stay bonuses" to the company's top 45
executives. - 40. The Newspaper Association of America names
Kmart its "Retailer of the Year" on Jan. 21,
2002, one day before the company files for
bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11.
10The 101 Dumbest Moments in Business
- 58. Houston, We Have a Problem, Part 9
(Not-Quite-So-Innocent Bystander Department) In
a tearful interview on NBC's Today, Linda Lay,
wife of Enron CEO Kenneth Lay, proclaims,
"Everything we had was mostly in Enron stock....
We are struggling for liquidity." Reporters soon
note that the Lays have 8 million in stock in
other companies and 25 million in real estate
holdings. - 59. In October, Global Crossing forgives
two-thirds of a 15 million loan it made to newly
appointed CEO John Legere when he worked for the
company's Asian subsidiary. He also receives a
3.5 million signing bonus, despite the fact that
he is already employed by Global Crossing. Of
course, the 13.5 million is pocket change for
Global Crossing founder and chairman Gary
Winnick, who -- despite the fact that his firm
has never earned a penny of profit -- has already
sold 734 million worth of stock in the
soon-to-be-bankrupt company. - 66. Having already earned the public's enmity by
declaring bankruptcy rather than negotiating with
the government during California's electricity
shortage, Pacific Gas Electric shores up its
public image by awarding 17.5 million in
retention bonuses to its executives. - 76. Houston, We Have a Problem, Part 10 As Enron
swirls into bankruptcy, it pays out 55 million
in bonuses to about 500 of its employees -- about
110,000 apiece -- in order to retain their
services. This is in stark contrast to the 4,500
severance package offered to 5,100 laid-off Enron
workers.
11The 101 Dumbest Moments in Business
- 90. Houston, We Have a Problem, Part 12 In his
testimony before Congress, Jeffrey Skilling
claims that he is unable to recall a board of
directors committee meeting in which records show
that he had approved several partnership deals,
in part because "the room was dark, quite
frankly, and people were walking in and out of
the meeting." - 95. Having lured Mariah Carey with a 21 million
signing bonus and an 80 million, five-album
recording contract, EMI decides, after only one
album, to pay her 28 million to go away. The net
result EMI pays 49 million for the soundtrack
to Glitter. - 63. Bottling the Stench of Death and Calling It
Perfume Philip Morris also attempts to counter
antismoking measures in the Czech Republic by
commissioning an economic analysis of the
"indirect positive effects" of early deaths --
savings on health care, pensions, welfare, and
housing for the elderly. The company later
apologizes.
12Types of Decisions
- Programmed- can be solved using rules and
procedures that can be laid out in advance. - Policy, procedures, and rules manuals
- Facilitates the routine and standardization of
decisions - 90 of all management decisions are programmed
- managers subordinates these decisions
- Usually lower-level managers address these
- Nonprogrammed can not be preplanned. They
require considerable intuition, creativity, and
decision-making prowess - Upper managers address these.
- Strategic decisions managers want to analyze
these decisions carefully, and weigh their
options and pro and cons.
13Decision-Making Process
- Decision making is the process of developing and
analyzing alternatives and making a choice. - Define the problem
- Write down the initial assessment of the problem
- What triggered the problem ?
- Why do I want to solve this problem?
- What triggered this problem?
- What is the relationship between the trigger and
the problem? - Clarify your objectives
- Write down all the concerns you hope to address
through your decision. - Convert your concerns into specific, concrete
objectives - Separate ends from means to establish your
fundamental objectives - Clarify what you mean by each objective
- Test your objectives to see if they capture your
interest - Identify alternatives
- Analyze the consequences
- Make a choice
14Decision-Making Process
- Identify Alternatives What are my options?
- Generate as many alternatives as you can yourself
- Expand your search by asking other people
- Know when to stop
- Analyze the consequences Pro/Cons
- Forecast future events once the decision has been
made or not made. - Lets you quantify realities
- Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives
- Organize your remaining alternatives into a
Consequences table. - Make a Choice
- Review the consequences of each alternative, and
choose the alternative that maximizes your
benefits. - If Choice does not solve the problem repeat.
15Make Better Decisions
- Increase your knowledge
- Ask WHO, What, Where, When, Why, HOW?
- Get experience
- Use consultants
- Do your research
- Force yourself to recognize the facts when you
see them - Base your decision on an objective review of the
facts as they really are. - Knowledge management to any efforts aimed at
enabling the companys managers and employees to
better utilize the information available in their
company. - Only 2 of companys information is written down
- Intuition is a cognitive process whereby a
person instinctively makes a decision based on
their accumulated knowledge and experience. - you can usually tell when a decision fits with
your inner nature, because it brings an enormous
sense of relief. - Good decisions Tranquilizers
- Bad decisions anxiety
- Concerns with intuition
- Intuition sometimes cloud our decision-making
- Tends to make you overconfident
- Does not stand up to Challenges
16Make Better Decisions
- Your Mood
- Is it conducive to making a decision.
- When people feel down they become aggressive
and destructive - When people feel up they become more tolerant
and subjective. - Be Creative
- Decision making is not a mechanical process
- Creativity the process of developing original,
novel responses to a problem - Brainstorm
- Suspend Judgment on suggested alternatives
- More Points of Views are better
- Provide Physical Support for Creativity
- Encourage anonymous inputs
- Reward effort
- Decision Tree a technique for facilitating how
decisions under conditions of risk are made,
whereby an expected value and gain or loss can be
applied to each alternative.
17Psychological Traps
- Decision Making Shortcuts
- Heuristics decision-making shortcuts, rules of
thumb. - Anchoring unconsciously giving too much weight
to the first information you hear. - Psychological Set the tendency to focus on a
rigid strategy or point of view when solving a
problem. - Perception the selection and interpretation of
information we receive through our senses and the
meaning we give to the information. - Stress feeling a decision has to be made now.
- Peer Pressure do it this way because your
friend did it that way
18Basic Planning ProcessChapter 4
- Develop a usable plan for an organization
- Write an outline of the required business plan,
and provide specific examples of its components
functional plans. - Express the necessary plan in descriptive,
graphic, and financial formats. - Explain what the manager did right and did wrong
with respect to setting goals for subordinates. - Explain the forecasting tools, you think the
manager should use and why.
19Nature/Purpose of Planning
- Plan a method for doing or making something,
consisting of a goal and a course of action. - It identifies future goals, sequence of steps in
reaching those goals, and a time frame for those
steps - It answers what, when, who, how much.
- Planning the process of setting goals and
courses of action, developing rules and
procedures, and forecasting future outcomes. - Goal a specific result to be achieved the end
result of a plan. - Objectives specific results toward which effort
is directed.
20Management Planning Process
- Goals of Planning
- Deciding ahead of time
- what needs to be done
- Time to research options
- Identify sequence of steps in reaching the goals
- Anticipate consequences of each step
- Provides direction and a sense of purpose.
- Provides a unifying framework in which to measure
decisions - Facilitates control
- Set standards
- Measure performance against those standards
- Identify and correct deviations
21Planning Process
- Planning steps
- Planning process is a logical process
- Setting objectives
- Analyzing situation
- Making forecasts
- Determining alternative course of action
- Evaluate options (alternatives)
- Choose and Implement the Plan
- Corp. Planning includes
- Hierarchical aspect
- Upper management approves long-term plans
- Departments creates their budget and sub-plans to
accomplish the long-term plan - Department interaction and compromise
-
22Albert Dunlap
- 1994 Journal of Business Strategy selected him as
a Strategist to Watch - As CEO of Scott Paper
- Laid off 11,200 people in about one year (1/3 of
the work force) - 71 of the headquarter staff
- 50 of management
- 20 of the hourly employees
- Scott Paper lost US market share in 3 major
products - In Britain market share went from 31.5 to 26.4
in 2 years - Sold Scott paper to rival Kimberly-Clark
- Dunlap compensation in salary and stock approx
100 million - CEO of Sunbeam
- Day one stock raised 49 for the quarter 63
- In 4 months reduced employee by 6,000 ½ of
the work force. The largest reduction ever
announced. - 8 companies - 6 are gone
- Short term results at the expense of long-term
health of the company
23Management
- U.S companies are most likely to have senior
management that has not worked in front-line
positions and who, therefore, have little
appreciation for or understanding of the work
like of rank-and-file people or concern for their
welfare. - Studies show that a financial orientation, with
its emphasis on financial controls and ,
frequently, on the short-term, relates negatively
to doing the things that need to be done to
achieve profits through the effective management
of peop0le and t\of the employment relation that
links them to the organization - A Balance score card approach in which
financial measures are only part of a system that
also measures customers, employees, and the
organizations activities that permit it to
compete effectively in the future
2410 Reason Why Smart Organizations Sometimes Do
Dumb Things
- The desire to do what everyone else is doing and
to follow the crowd - Managerial career pressures, derived from the
need to make the numbers and to have a track
record that makes one mobile, pressures that
create an emphasis on short-term, financial
results. - A belief in leader ship and tendency to overvalue
things we have helped produce, - Demands for accountability and reproducibility in
results and decisions that destroy the benefits
of expertise. - Career trajectories who gets promoted rewards
financial rather than human resources. - Excessive focus on measuring costs often
short-term costs - Obsession with mean or tough management.
- Management education and training focus on
finances and accounting rather than on human
resources. - Normative and economic value placed on being a
skilled analyst on knowing compared to value
placed on being able to manage people. - Capital market primacy over other stakeholders
and demands for short-term performance that make
long-term investments in people more difficult.
25Business Plan
- Co. business plan provides a comprehensive
overview of the firms situation today and of its
companywide and departmental goals and plans for
the next three to five years - Contains
- Executive summary a brief summary of the plan,
including a snapshot of the business environment,
the companys goals, competitive strengths. As
well financial situation. - Description of the business
- A mission statement
- What business are we in
- Who we are
- What we do
- And Where we are headed
- Marketing plan a plan for marketing your
products/services. - Nature of your product/service
- The pricing and promoting strategies
- Selling and delivering of goods/service
- 4-P product, price, promotion, and place)
26Business Plan
- Financial plan
- Profit and Loss compares sales with the
expenses incurred to generated theses sales - Revenues, expenses and net income
- Balance Sheet show what the company owns who
they owe- and how much the shareholders own - Cash Flow sources and usage of cash
- Pro forma future projected statements
- Management and/or personnel plan
- detailed monthly schedule showing specific job
titles for you will be hiring and when. - Any lay offs.
- Specific duties of employees
- Executive Action Assignment Plan targets each
department needs to achieve if that long-term
goal is to met.
27Types of Plans
- Format variety
- Descriptive plans- state in words what is to be
achieved, by who, and when as well as cost. - Budgets- financial terms
- Graphic plans- uses charts or graphical networks
- Covers a period of time
- Tactical plans (functional plans) marketing,
production, and personnel plans. - Shows each department's role in the companys
strategic plan - Operational plans first-line managers focus on
short-term plans - Focus on detailed day-to-day planning
- One-time projects presents in an orderly
fashion all steps in a major one-time project. - Standing Plans to be used repeatedly as the
need arises. - Policies- set board guidelines
- Procedures- spell out what to do if a specific
situation arises - Rules- a highly specific guides to action
28Goals
- Defined - a specific result to be achieved the
end result of a plan. - Goals must be
- Specific and clearly stated the end results
- Attainable
- Relevant and clearly derived from crucial needs
- Timely and reflect deadlines and milestones
- 4 point model
- action/verb
- single measurable result
- Target date/time span
- Cost in time and /or energy
- Motivational Goals
- Assign Specific Goals
- Assign Measurable Goals - express goals in
quantitative terms, and include target dates or
deadlines - Assign Challenging but Doable Goals- goals must
be designed to show obtainable improvements - Encourage Participation
- Creates a sense of ownership in the goals
- Reduces resistance
- Tend to be more difficult than assigned goals
29Management by Objectives
- Created by Peter Drucker the goal of each
managers job must be defined by the contribution
they make to the success of the larger unit of
which they are part. - 5 steps
- Set organization goals top management sets
strategic goals for the company. - Set department goals depart heads and
supervisors set subordinates goals - Set Individual goals with a timetable for
accomplishing those goals. - Give Feedback periodically review the
subordinates performance. - Disadvantage
- Time consuming
30Forecasting Developing Planning Premises
- Forecast to estimate or calculate in advance or
to predict. Usually by on companys sales - Quantitative Forecasting- time-series methods and
causal models - Time series a set of observations taken at
specific times, usually at equal intervals. - the data is plotted on a graph to see trends
- Identifies irregular and seasonal patterns and
allow managers to identify fundamental trends - Casual forecasting develop a forecast based on
the mathematical relationship between a company
factor and variables management believes
influences or explain the cap any factor. - Qualitative forecasting uses human judgment
- Used when no hard data and numbers are available.
31Marketing Research
- Defined procedures used to develop and analyze
customer related information that helps managers
make decisions. - Primary Data information specifically collected
to solve a current problem. - Sources mail and personal surveys
- Secondary data information collected or
published already - Sources - libraries, trade association, company
files and sales reports. - Competitive Intelligence (CI) a systematic way
to obtain and analyze public information about
competitors. - Internet and CI
- Ethics and CI as long as the firm publicly
lists the information on the WEB, it is Ethical
32(No Transcript)
33Chapter 5 Strategic Management
- Develop a workable strategic plan for an
organization using SWOT analysis - Identify a companys current corporate
strategies, and list its strategic options. - Develop a vision and mission statement.
- Accurately identify a companys core
competence. - Explain each of the strategic planning tools you
think the CEO should use, and why.
34Knowing Your Business
- What is our business and what should it be?
- What is the structure?
- What are the products or services?
- Determines what type of employees is hired
- Who your clients/customers will be
- Who are your competitors
- How much money is needed
- How will the company compete?
- What kind of marketing/promotions.
- Where will you conduct business.
- Who are your competitors
- What should our current basic course of action
for the company. - Defining our mission statement -a statement that
broadly outlines in todays terms the
enterprises purpose and serves to communicate
who the organization is, what it doses, and
where its headed. - What is our future plans.
- Setting strategic plans assessing your
situation today, predicting the future
opportunities, threats, strengths weakness and
identifying the course of action. - Includes setting objectives
- Creating a course of action- creativity and based
on predicting the future.
35Strategic Management Process
- Define the business, develop a vision and its
mission. - A company must
- define the product scope in the range and
diversity of products. - Review the vertical integration supply chain
- Analysis the geographic scope
- Identify how the company competes.
- Perform external and internal situation audits.
- The purpose is to choose a direction for the firm
that makes sense in terms of - the external opportunities and threats
- the internal strengths and weaknesses
- Translate the mission into strategic goals
- Interpret the mission and strategic goals into
specific and attainable goals for managers.
36Strategic Management Process
- Generate and select strategies to reach strategic
goals - Strategy is a course of action which show how
the enterprise will move from the business of to
day to the business of tomorrow given the
opportunities and threats and its internal
strengths and weaknesses. - Reviewing required staffing, fixed assets
(buildings new or closing old), and product
lines. - Implement the strategy into actions and results
- Involves applying all the management functions
planning, organizing, leading and controlling. - The company must be consistent, focus,
- Evaluate performance the current results with
the goals. - Are there adjustments that are needed
- Or Strategies that need to be revised or
eliminated? - The review process is an ongoing process. Always
review the competitive environment, demographics,
companys culture and focus.
37Types of Strategies
- Corporate-Level identifies the corporations
portfolio of businesses and who these businesses
work and fit together. - Concentration the business offers one product
or product line. - Market Penetration aggressively marketing and
selling the firm products. - Geographic expansion expanding companys
product into new geographic areas (global) - Product Development improve companys product
for current markets - Horizontal integration acquiring ownership or
control of competitors in the same or similar
markets, with the same or similar products. - Advantages- Concentrate on the business it know
well. - Disadvantage putting all ones eggs in one
basket - Vertical Integration owning or controlling the
products or services from beginning to end. - Backward integration when the retail company
buy the distribution chain. - Forward integration when the manufacturer buys
the retail outlets
38Types of Strategies(continued)
- Diversification is a strategy of expanding into
related or unrelated products or market segments - Related Diversification expanding into other
industries in which a firms lines are related or
kind of fit. - Conglomerate expanding into unrelated products
or markets. - Status Quo A more conservative approach in
which no change in strategy is advisable. - Investment Reduction (defensive) are corrective
actions. - Retrenchment a reduction of activities or
operations. Reducing employment, downsizing,
closing facilities. - Divestment selling or liquidating individual
businesses. - Liquidation the selling or abandonment of
nonviable businesses. - Strategic Alliances Joint Ventures formal
agreements between two or more separate
companies, the purpose of which is to enable the
organizations to benefit from complementary
strengths. - Joint Venture joint ownership and operation of
a business.
39Types of Strategies(continued)
- Competitive as a plan to establish a profitable
and sustainable competitive position against the
forces that drive industry competition. - Specifies how the company will compete
- Cost leadership- (price) -aims to be the low-cost
leader in an industry. - Differentiation-(uniqueness) - seeks to be unique
in its industry along some dimensions that are
valued by buyers - Focus (service) - selects a narrow market
segment and serving those customers in that
niche better or more cheaply than anyone else - Force Competitive strategy (size) a basis on
which to identify a relative superiority over
competitors. Like castle moats, these advantages
can help stop or delay new competitors from
entering the marketplace. - Threat of entry -
- Rivalry among competitors
- Price competition, advertising battles and
increase costumer service. - Pressure from substitute products -
- Buyers bargaining power -
- Suppliers bargaining power -
- Functional - are the basic operating policies
for departments.
40Strategic Planning Methods
- Strategies should
- Capitalize on evolving opportunities and address
potential threats. - Be achievable.
- Capitalize on companys strengths and avoid the
firm's current weaknesses. - In response to competitors potential moves
- Strategic planning tools
- Market research
- SWOT (strength, weaknesses, opportunities, and
threats) - Strength/weakness financial resources,
companys stability, economies of scale, and
proprietary technology. - Opportunities Weakening competition, economic
changes. - Treats government laws, raising sales of
substitutes
41Strategic Planning Methods
- Environmental Scanning
- Economic trends the level of economic activity
and the flow of money, goods, and services. - Competitive trends actions taken or to be taken
by current and potential competitors. - Political trends actions of local, nations, and
foreign governments - Technological trends development of new or
existing technology. - Social and demographic trends the way people
live and the nature of the people in a society.
Including what they value. - Geographic trends Climate, natural resources.
- Benchmarking- carefully analyzing the practices
of other companies that already excel in that
area and then comparing the results to your
company.
42Strategic Planning Methods
- TOWS Matrix to help visualize what strategies
to use to address the firm's SWOT.
- Portfolio Analysis The BCG Matrix helps
managers to identify the relative attractive of
each of a firms business. - Growth rate of the business
- Businesss market value
43- Portfolio Analysis The BCG Matrix helps
managers to identify the relative attractive of
each of a firms business. - Growth rate of the business
- Businesss market value
44Predicting the Unpredictable
- Scenarios a hypothetical sequences of events
constructed for the purpose of focusing attention
n causal processes and decision points. Purpose
is to shake management out of its traditional
ways of thinking. - They answer two kinds of questions
- 1. Precisely how might some hypothetical
situation come about, step by step, and - 2. what alternatives exist, for each situation at
each step, for preventing, diverting or
facilitating the process.
45Strategic Planning
- Core Competencies the collective learning in
the organizations especially (knowing) how to
coordinate diverse production skills and
integrate multiple streams of technologies. - Achieving Strategic Fit all the firms
activities must be tailored to its strategy, by
ensuring that the firms functional strategies
support its corporate and competitive strategies. - Stretch and Leverage resources supplementing
what you have and doing more with what you have.