Human Development Report 2005

1
Human Development Report 2005

• John Braithwaite
• www.anu.edu.au/fellows/jbraithwaite

Regulatory Institutions Network (RegNet) Research
School of Social Sciences The Australian National
University, Canberra September 2005
2
Source Department of Peace and Conflict Research
at Uppsala University and International Peace
Research Institute, Oslo (from United Nations
General Assembly Document A/59/565, 2004).
Civil Wars and Peacebuilding 1970-2002
3
Hierarchical accountability
Restorative/republican accountability
Guardian 1
Guardian n1
Guardian n
Guardian 3
Guardian 2
Guardian 1
Guardian 2
4
Deliberative accountability
Guardian 1
Guardian 3
Guardian 2
5
War as one of a range of alternative strategies
for

• a) looting
• b) changing regimes
• by
• a) organized criminals
• b) political protest movements

6
Invasion trajectory
foreign invasion
armed resistance
stalemate
victory
peace process
peace
peace
7
Coup trajectory
fragile state legitimacy
military coup
armed resistance
victory
peace process
peace
peace
8
Genocide / Ethnic cleansing trajectory
perceived ethnic threat to fragile state
legitimacy
state sponsors genocide/ethnic cleansing
armed resistance (international resistance)
victory
peace process
peace
peace
9
Organized criminals capture state trajectory
weak state
criminals allowed to loot
coexistence between state and criminals
movements for political change
escalated state violence against organized crime
peace
regime changers and looters join in armed
resistance
victory
stalemate
endless looting stalemate
peace process
peace
peace
10
People power trajectory
State legitimacy crisis
mass political protest
protest crushed
military defects to the protesters
regime change
peace
peace
11
Insurgency / terrorism trajectory
State legitimacy crisis
political protest, riots etc
violent state oppression
protest groups form armed wings (insurgent or
terrorist)
armed resistance
stalemate
victory
peace process
peace
peace
12
Post-peace trajectories
peace process
state loses legitimacy
terrorism
military coup
ethnic cleansing
insurgency
endless stalemate between failed state
organized crime
election defeat
regime change
13

• Thank you
• www.anu.edu.au/fellows/jbraithwaite