Transit Elections

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Transit Elections

• Successes and Failures Lessons Learned

Tim Baldwin, AICP December 8, 2003
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2002 Successes and Failures
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2003 Successes and Failures
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Factors Influencing Success or Failure

• Research by
• Richard Werbel, Professor of Marketing, San Jose
  State University

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Factors Influencing Success or Failure

• Identifiable congestion crisis
• Business community sponsorship
• Endorsement by key elected officials

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Factors Influencing Success or Failure

• 1 million campaign
• Recent initiative experience
• Support from environmental groups

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Factors Influencing Success or Failure

• Multiple transit modes
• Includes highway funding
• Benefits distributed throughout area

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Factors Influencing Success or Failure

• Extension of existing rail system
• No problems with local transit system
• Stakeholder participation in package

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Factors Influencing Success or Failure

• General election
• Combination of direct mail and TV
• Lack of effective opposition

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Factors Influencing Success or Failure 10
Elections 1997-2000

• Those that passed (6) had no more than 3
  negative factors
• Those that failed (4) had 10 or more negative
  factors

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Case Studies

• Dallas Area Rapid Transit 1988 (failed
  2-1)

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Case Studies

• Denton County TX 2002/3 (passed
  3-1)

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Case Studies

• Denver RTD, 2004?

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Minimize Negative Factors to Maximize Chances for
Success
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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• Carl Guardino, President and CEO, Silicon Valley
  Manufacturing Group
• Helped lead 5 winning transportation ballot
  measures since 1984
• Generating 13 billion
• California law requires 2/3 vote

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 12. Names Matter Timing is Everything
• Taxpayers for Traffic Relief
• General elections good special elections bad
• No relation to good or bad economy

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 11. Build the Product or Buy the Product
• Building a coalition is critical
• Limit the opposition by embracing as many groups
  as possible

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 10. Data or Dogma?
• Surveys are vital
• Test all ideas dont assume you know what the
  public wants

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 9. Penny-wise or Pound-foolish?
• You get what you pay for with consultants
• Avoid political favors or friends when
  selecting a consultant

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 8. Headlines or Headway?
• It is amazing what you can accomplish when you
  dont care who gets the credit.
• Run silent run deep

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 7. Private or Public-Driven Partnership?
• Private sector should lead the campaign
• Taxpayer-to-taxpayer message more credible

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 6. Empower or Overpower
• Find a role for everyone in the coalition

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 5. Watchdog or Lapdog?
• Polling showed strong support for citizen
  watchdog committee
• Listen to the voters!

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 4. Fundraising
• Sufficient funding is critical (at least 1
  million in most metro areas)
• Get up-front commitments
• Run frugal campaigns emphasizing voter contact

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 3. Community Outreach
• Speakers Bureau
• Editorial Board visits
• Free media
• Paid media

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 2. Pros or Schmoes?
• Transportation professionals developed list of
  projects
• Political professionals determined what voters
  would support

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Top 12 Lessons Learned

• 1. Deliver or Wither
• Previous delivery on promises is critical for
  future voter approval