Preparing for the Advocacy Battle to Come

1
Preparing for the Advocacy Battle to Come

• Presented by Ken Spain
• November 10, 2008

2
How Did We Get Here?

• Following Republican successes in 2004, it was
  said that we had built a permanent Republican
  majority

2004 Presidential Map
2004 Congressional Map
3
2006

• However, following public dissatisfaction with
  the Republican brand after six years of complete
  control, Democrats gained 30 seats in the 2006
  midterm elections, winning in many traditionally
  Republican districts.

4
The Battleground Today

• Democrats continued to buck the tide and made
  large gains in the 2008 election, on the macro
  Presidential level and micro Congressional level.

2008 Presidential Map
2008 Congressional Map
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Where Did We Lose and Why?

• The Bush Hangover
• The Presidents low approval ratings and a
  tarnished Republican brand led to losses in
  places like
• Midwest Ohio (-2 or 3), Pennsylvania (-1),
  Michigan (-2)
• Southwest Colorado (-1), New Mexico (-2), Nevada
  (-1)
• Southeast Virginia (-2 or 3), North Carolina
  (-1), Alabama (-2), Florida (-1)
• Areas with conservative Democratic populations
  and with high minority populations made the
  difference in many of those races.

6
Where Did We Win and Why?

• Candidates were able to make their respective
  races about a choice, not a referendum on the
  incumbent and found ways to succeed despite a
  turbulent environment.
• KS-02
• MN-03
• NY-26
• MO-09
• KY-02
• LA-06
• TX-22
• FL-16

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How Do We Get Back?

• History is on our side. With the recent exception
  of 2002, first midterm elections swing in favor
  of the opposition party.
• The GOP needs to rehabilitate the Republican
  brand.
• Focus turns to making gains with minorities,
  women and other critical voting blocs.
• The GOP message is only as good as its messengers
  on the campaign trail. Now is the time to start
  recruiting.

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The Democrats Agenda

• Taxes
• Nonetheless, in the next two years Congress
  faces two driving factors that will force
  lawmakers to act. The first, in 2009, is the
  expiration -- again -- of corporate and personal
  tax breaks, including a patch. The second, in
  2010, is the expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax
  cuts, including the current rates on individual
  income and capital gains and dividends.
  (Congress Daily 11/6/08)

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• Re-Instating the Off-Shore Drilling Ban
• Democrat Leader Restoring Offshore Drilling Ban
  a Top Priority for Next Year (09/24/2008)
• I am sure it will be a top priority for
  discussion next year, Hoyer said when
  CNSNews.com asked him if Democrats would fight to
  restore the ban.

10

• Card Check
• Employee Free Choice Act would convert
  workplaces into union shops merely by gathering
  signatures from a majority of employees, which
  means organizers could strongarm those who
  opposed such a petition. This would be the
  biggest pro-union shift in the balance of
  labor-management power since the Wagner Act of
  1935. (WSJ, 10/17/08)

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• Corporate Tax Overhaul
• The House of Representatives' top tax-writer
  says he wants to rewrite the corporate tax code
  next year, and predicted that tax reform won't be
  a heavy lift with an Obama administration
  (10/30/2008)

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• Healthcare For All
• When HillaryCare cratered in 1994, the Democrats
  concluded they had overreached, so they carved up
  the old agenda into smaller incremental steps,
  such as Schip for children. A strongly Democratic
  Congress is now likely to lay the final
  flagstones on the path to government-run health
  insurance from cradle to grave. According to the
  Lewin Group the Obama plan would shift between
  32 million and 52 million from private coverage
  to the huge new entitlement. Like Medicare or the
  Canadian system, this would never be repealed.
  (WSJ, 1017/08)

13

• Fairness Doctrine
• In 2007, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin
  (D-Ill.), a close ally of Democratic presidential
  nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) told The Hill,
  Its time to reinstitute the Fairness Doctrine.
  I have this old-fashioned attitude that when
  Americans hear both sides of the story, theyre
  in a better position to make a decision. (The
  Hill, 11/04/2008)

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Conclusion

• It is now up to Obama and the Democrats to make
  good on all of their promises. They will own all
  of Washingtons problems and successes.
• The GOP must now rebuild to broaden its appeal.
  Minorities, women, Reagan Democrats must be
  brought back into the fold.
• Democrats will be defined by their agenda. A
  Democratic Washington will allow for us not only
  to define our opponents, but redefine ourselves.