The Geopolitics of Energy

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The Geopolitics of Energy A Systems-Thinking
Approach in 10 Slides
Jeff Vail Davis Graham Stubbs LLP
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Geopolitical Challenge
Geological Net-Energy Challenge
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Rational extraction sets the stage for
geopolitical problems
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Demand
Time
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Market-driven conservation efficiency increase
inelasticity
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STATE
OIL
NATION
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Highly theoretical disputes drive very real
conflict
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Actors seek to secure their slice of a shrinking
pie
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Tactical evolution increases geopolitical threat
to energy
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Scarcity Catalyzes Conflict Supply Disruption
Disruption Increases Scarcity
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These developments act as positive feedback loops
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Geologically Feasible Production Curve
Production Under Geopolitical Reality
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Geopolitical feedback loops exacerbate peak oil
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Nigeria
Iraq
Mexico
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This is a global feedback system
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1
2
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Solving symptoms leads to alternative negative
outcomes
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Radically Decentralized? Renewable? Vernacular? R
ealistic?
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Addressing causes requires radical restructuring
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Questions? Jeff Vail jeff.vail_at_dgslaw.com
Davis Graham Stubbs LLP