Maud Adriaansen

1
National politics in dire straits
Media, political cynicism and
economic voting in the 2006 Dutch
elections

• Maud Adriaansen
• The Amsterdam School of Communications Research
  (ASCoR)
• Universiteit van Amsterdam
• July, 2007
• MAUD ADRIAANSEN M.L.ADRIAANSEN_at_UVA.NL / 31
  20 525 5093

2
Basic model
voting behavior
media use
attitudes
3
Data

• November 2006 Dutch Parliamentary Elections
• 4 wave panel survey (TNS NIPO)
• Content analysis of television programs and news
  papers

4
Basic model
voting behavior
media use
attitudes
5
Model
6
Model
A
7
Model
B
8
Model
C
9
Model
D
10
First article

• Paper Political cynicism and voter instability.
  Evidence from the 2006 Dutch elections.
• Political cynicism distrust in reliability and
  competence
• gtgt Inter election voter instability reflects the
  share of voters
• not choosing the same party in two successive
  elections
•  gtgt Intra election voter instability reflects
  the share of voters
• not making a party choice long before the
  elections
• or hesitating which party to vote for
• H1
• Political cynicism positively affects inter
  election voter instability
• H2
• Political cynicism positively affects intra
  election voter instability

11
Next steps

• Current paper add left right dimension to voter
  instability
• Next paper relation between media use and
  political cynicism