The NSF Science and Technology Centers Program in Perspective

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The NSF Science and TechnologyCenters Program in
Perspective
Kelvin K. DroegemeierProfessor, School of
Meteorology and Director, Center for Analysis
and Prediction of StormsUniversity of Oklahoma
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Looking Back to 1987

• The web didnt exist
• NSFnet was in its infancy (56K connections)
• The fast computer was the Cray X-MP
• Universities and K-12 education. Are you
  serious?
• Interdisciplinary was an emerging paradigm
• Global competition in science/technology was
  rising
• Perceived weakening in and exodus from US
  national laboratories
• Lack of a clear path in the US from basic
  research to practical economic and societal
  benefits

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The STC Concept

• Create well-funded, long-term centers exclusively
  at universities (though involving other entities)
• Attack fundamental science problems that are
  beyond a single investigator and require
  multidisciplinary approaches
• Weave education and knowledge transfer throughout
  the centers activities
• Encourage linkages with industry to effectuate
  practical utilization as well as research
• Sunset law -- seed fund (plant) and let others
  water!

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Your Starting Point

• The STC Program helped bring about or solidify
  many things we know as common today
• Interdisciplinary research is well established
• University participation in K-12 education is
  well established
• Commercialization of intellectual property is
  growing and IP issues are being dealt with
• University partnerships with the private sector
  are common
• Virtual collaboration is available (important for
  centers involving multiple institutions)
• Accountability is now a major issue
• Tangible benefits to society have been
  demonstrated
• Science impacts are being communicated to
  Congress (e.g., Ehlers report), but more work is
  needed

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The CAPS Problem Numerical Prediction of
High-Impact Local Weather
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What Do Operational Weather Models Predict?
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What Do Forecasters Deal With?

• Individual thunderstorms and squall lines
• Lake effect snow storms
• Down-slope wind storms
• Convective initiation
• Seabreeze convection
• Stratocumulus decks off the coast
• Cold air damming
• Post-frontal rainbands

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Can We Predict Local High-Impact Weather
Explicitly Using Numerical Models???

• Theoretical viability
• Computing and data needed
• Practical implementation
• Economic and societal value
• Commercial potential

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The Consequences and Need

• Local high-impact weather causes economic losses
  in the US that average 300 M per week
• Over 10 of the 7 trillion US economy is
  impacted each year
• Commercial aviation losses are 1-2 B per year
  (one diverted flight costs 150K)
• Agriculture losses exceed 10 B/year
• Other industries (power utilities, surface
  transport)
• About 50 of the loss is preventable!

Pielke Jr. (1997)
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More than the National Weather Service

• General and commercial aviation
• Power and communication utilities
• Surface transportation
• Agriculture
• Defense and space flight
• Construction
• Insurance
• Weather derivatives and commodities
• Recreation
• Toxic release
• Hydrology

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NEXRAD Doppler Radar Data
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CAPS Numerical Forecasts of the May 3 Tornadic
Storms
700 pm - 2 hour Forecast
NEXRAD Radar Observations
ARPS Prediction Model (2 hour forecast)
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Comparison With Current Operational Model
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The Early Years

• Early organization is absolutely critical
• Take proposal and reviews and come up with a work
  plan
• Everyone needs to see where they fit, especially
  students
• Regular meetings of center leadership are
  important
• Need to balance the freedom of a university
  setting with the organization of a private
  company
• A good associate director and other
  administrative staff!
• Specific goals for individual thrust areas --
  good to have a common target that everyone is
  working toward
• PERT and GANTT charts if you can stomach them!!

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The Early Years

• Early organization is absolutely critical
• Take proposal and reviews and come up with a work
  plan
• Everyone needs to see where they fit, especially
  students
• Regular meetings of center leadership are
  important early in the process (and ongoing)
• Need to balance the freedom of a university
  setting with the organization of a private
  company
• Clear lines of authority and responsibility
• A good associate director and other
  administrative staff!
• Specific goals for individual thrust areas --
  good to have a common target that everyone is
  working toward
• PERT and GANTT charts if you can stomach them!!
• Establish a strong External Advisory Panel
• Maintain strong ties with your program director
  and quickly deal with problems as they arise

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The Early Years

• Some good early decisions
• Worked with the end users as soon as possible
• Developed a vision for the practical benefits and
  kept them in mind
• Developed something that would live beyond the
  center and the people who developed it
• Not only did science but looked toward
  commercialization from day one
• Excellent linkages with university administration
• Early struggles
• Education and outreach
• Dealing with reporting procedures (data base) -
  NSF was learning right along with us
• Lots of reviews (13 formal reviews in 9 years)

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The Mature Phase

• Try to stay focused and avoid the temptation of
  broadening your goals too quickly
• Staff turnover unavoidable -- try to cross-train
• STC director meetings will be valuable
• Make visits to the Hill
• Professional development scientists need to
  learn how to write proposals, etc
• Be creative
• undergraduate fellows programs
• REU and related opportunities
• visiting scientist programs
• international linkages

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The Ramp Down and Transition

• Plan to lose your funding - thats the way it
  should be!
• Start cultivating linkages with the private
  sector and other communities
• Think carefully whether certain efforts should
  continue
• Difficult to sustain a single scientific problem
  beyond a decade
• Does it make sense to continue?
• CAPS created a transition team
• Responded to opportunities
• Created our own opportunities (this is critical
  since your work will be very novel) -- do it all
  along the way
• Plan for efforts to slow a bit if transition
  funding is uncertain -- write papers!
• Private company/commercialization

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CAPS in Perspective
Basic RD Operational Applications
Testing
Commercialization
1989-1992 0
0 1993-1996

0 1997-1998
1999-2000

2001-2003
2003-2005


WDT
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Some Suggestions

• Track your intellectual property from day one and
  work closely with your Research or IP Office
• Track the careers of your students and post-docs
• Assign a competent staff member to the data base
• Have weekly informal scientific discussions for
  all center personnel, including students
• Rehearse site visits and EAP meetings
• Think out of the box -- youre the NSFs premiere
  activity!

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Because CAPS was an STC...
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CAPS Numerical Forecasts of the May 3 Tornadic
Storms
700 pm - 2 hour Forecast
NEXRAD Radar Observations
ARPS Prediction Model (2 hour forecast)
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(No Transcript)
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Project Hub-CAPS

• 1 million, 3-year RD project with American
  Airlines
• Built and now operate for AA acustomized
  numerical predictionsystem
• Led to an endowed professorship
• Helped initiate a private company
• Possibly an AA-Weather Channel equitypartnership

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Abilene NEXRAD
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Operational Version of ARPS in Korea (1999)
15-h Accumulated Precipitation Valid 03Z on 1
August 1999 (400 Station AWS Mesonet)
ARPS 12-h 9 km Forecast Valid 03Z on 1 August
1999
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Weather Decision Technologies, Inc.
WDT
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When the Book is Written on CAPS...

• We would like to be remembered for the fact that
  we
• Did our best and did not squander the ST Center
  opportunity
• Learned from our mistakes and listened to advice
  (and sometimes even followed it!)
• Produced new scientific knowledge of the highest
  quality and moved the field forward more quickly
  than otherwise would have been the case
• Led major national initiatives that otherwise
  would not have happened
• Were good stewards of the funding entrusted to us
  and held ourselves to the highest standards of
  professional ethics
• Had the interests of the community in mind for
  every decision made
• Recognized that our work was made possible by the
  efforts of those who preceded us

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Finally

• The STC program is one of NSFs crowning
  achievements
• The STC experience will no doubt be the highlight
  of your career
• Have a great time. Congratulations!!

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CAPS Contact Information

• Visit CAPS on the web at http//caps.ou.edu
• Real time forecasts are at http//caps.ou.edu/wx
• For more information, contact

Prof. Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Director Center for
Analysis and Prediction of Storms University of
Oklahoma Sarkeys Energy Center, Suite 1110 100
East Boyd Street Norman, OK 73019 Email
kkd_at_ou.edu Phone [phone] Fax
405-325-7614