Presidential Power

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Presidential Power Its Effects

• October 20, 2005

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Examples of Power

• Jackson Veto of the Bank of the U.S.
• T.Roosevelt Expansion of the national park
  system, Panama Canal
• Nixon
• What lessons can we draw from these examples
  about the exercise of presidential power?

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NeustadtPresidential power is the power to
persuade!
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Neustadts Model

• The president wields influence when he manages
  to enhance his bargaining stature and build
  governing coalitions and the principal way to
  accomplish as much . . . is to draw upon the bag
  of experiences, skills, and qualities that he
  brings to the office.

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Neustadts Model
Pre-presidential requisites
A sense of direction A feel for, love of, and
sensitivity to power High self-esteem,
self-confidence Secure experienced politician
with a sense of perspective
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Neustadts Model
Pre-presidential requisites
A sense of direction A feel for, love of, and
sensitivity to power High self-esteem,
self-confidence Secure experienced politician
with a sense of perspective
Shrewdness in persuading, bargaining, educating
and mapping backwards on his policy aims
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Neustadts Model
Pre-presidential requisites
On the job performance
A sense of direction A feel for, love of, and
sensitivity to power High self-esteem,
self-confidence Secure experienced politician
with a sense of perspective
Astute use of formal powers and other strategic
vantage points Washington professional
reputation Public prestige or popularity
Shrewdness in persuading, bargaining, educating
and mapping backwards on his policy aims
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Neustadts Model
Pre-presidential requisites
On the job performance
Aim
Effective Public Policy
A sense of direction A feel for, love of, and
sensitivity to power High self-esteem,
self-confidence Secure experienced politician
with a sense of perspective
Astute use of formal powers and other strategic
vantage points Washington professional
reputation Public prestige or popularity
Shrewdness in persuading, bargaining, educating
and mapping backwards on his policy aims
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Constraints

• World events
• Competing interest groups
• Foreign policy pressures
• Demands of the political party
• Cabinet and the bureaucracy
• Media and the public
• Congress
• Judiciary
• States and local governments

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Presidential Power Requires

• A will for power
• Skill at winning others over
• A sensitivity to the thoughts and feelings of
  others
• An ability to create solutions that compromise
  contesting points of view
• Getting others to believe your requests are in
  their best interests.
• Riding events to gain attention

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Presidential Power Requires

• Being an expert on crucial power relationships
• Concern for details, gossip, and the intricacies
  of human sensitivities
• Popularity and public prestige ? credit among the
  Washington community
• Getting by catch-as-catch can
• Avoiding at almost all costs the direct issuing
  of a confrontational command

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But persuasion is not the only tool available to
presidents.Presidents can act unilaterally.
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Executive Proclamations
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Orders Proclamations
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Executive Orders
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Executive Orders
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Orders by Subject, 1945-1989
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National Security Directives
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Unilateral Action
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House Presidential Support
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Pivotal Politics
3/5 legislators
2/5 legislators
2/3 legislators
1/3 legislators
Liberal
Conservative
F
M
V
P
Filibuster pivot
Veto pivot
President
Median voter
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Game Order
No filibuster
Bill
Veto
Override
Congress(m)
Congress(f)
Congress(v)
Pres.(p)
No bill
Filibuster
New policy
Sustain veto
New policy
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Game Order
Congress(m)
No bill
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Game Order
Bill
Congress(m)
Congress(f)
No bill
Filibuster
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Game Order
No filibuster
Bill
Congress(m)
Congress(f)
Pres.(p)
No bill
Filibuster
New policy
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Game Order
No filibuster
Bill
Veto
Congress(m)
Congress(f)
Congress(v)
Pres.(p)
No bill
Filibuster
New policy
Sustain veto
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Game Order
No filibuster
Bill
Veto
Override
Congress(m)
Congress(f)
Congress(v)
Pres.(p)
No bill
Filibuster
New policy
Sustain veto
New policy
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Pivotal Politics
F
M
V
P
Carter, 1977-1980
Reagan Bush, 1981-1992
M
F
P
V
M
F
P
V
Clinton, 1993-1994
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Neustadts Model
Pre-presidential requisites
On the job performance
Aim
A sense of direction A feel for, love of, and
sensitivity to power High self-esteem,
self-confidence Secure experienced politician
with a sense of perspective
Astute use of formal powers and other strategic
vantage points Washington professional
reputation Public prestige or popularity
Effective Public Policy
Shrewdness in persuading, bargaining, educating
and mapping backwards on his policy aims
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Honeymoons?
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FDRs 100 Days
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Annual Success Rate
First year of new administration
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Honeymoon, 1961-2001

• Success in Congress, first 100 days
• Baseline 37
• Inaugural year adds 13
• Unified government adds 26
• Pre-1974 Presidency adds 14
• Public approval adds 1 to success rate for every
  increase of 5 in approval ratings

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Explaining Success

• Pivotal politics?
• Congressional deference?

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Pivotal Politics
Liberal
Conservative
F
M
V
P
Filibuster pivot
Veto pivot
President
Median voter
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Pivotal Politics
2/3 legislators
1/3 legislators
Liberal
Conservative
F
M
V
P
Filibuster pivot
Veto pivot
President
Median voter
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Pivotal Politics
3/5 legislators
2/5 legislators
Liberal
Conservative
F
M
V
P
Filibuster pivot
Veto pivot
President
Median voter
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Pivotal Politics
I II III
IV V
F
M
V
P
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Pivotal Politics
Full convergence to the median voter
I II III
IV V
F
M
V
P
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Pivotal Politics
Partial convergence to the median voter
I II III
IV V
F
M
V
P
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Pivotal Politics
Gridlock
I II III
IV V
F
M
V
P
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Pivotal Politics
F
M
V
P
SQ
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Pivotal Politics
F
M
V
P
SQ
B
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Pivotal Politics
F
M
V
P
SQ
B