Regional Conflict Formations

1
Regional Conflict Formations the Middle East

• The Politics Policy Implications of the Iraqi
  Refugee Crisis in Jordan, Lebanon Syria

Dr. Reinoud Leenders University of Amsterdam,
reinoudleenders_at_yahoo.com
2
Iraqi Refugees a Worsening Humanitarian Crisis

• Vast Refugee Movement
• Syria /- 1.5 Million
• Jordan /- 500,000
• Lebanon /- 60,000
• Refugee waves in stages
• 2003 less than expected, yet many wealthy Iraqis
• 2004 gt mostly middle classes, Christians
• 2006gt Samara bombing, massive influx
• Deteriorating humanitarian conditions
• Depleting assets and savings
• Nearly half refugees poor / extremely poor
• Health crisis, wasting among children

3
Theory on Refugees Conflict

• Humanitarian analysis (Hum.)
• Deliberate depoliticization quantification,
  socio-economic needs, poor living conditions ?
  conflict
• Applied to Iraqi refugees refugees ? regional
  instability

4
Recent currents in political science on refugees
and conflict (Pol)

• Refugees as carriers of conflict or refugee
  warriors, determined not by socio-economic
  deprivation but by
• Host state response and capabilities
• Causes of flight nature of refugees
• General insecurity targeted persecution
• International extra-regional responses
• Third country policy and international
  humanitarian response

5
Pol. Iraqi Refugees

• State capability to curb / police refugee
  violence
• Compare Lebanon, Jordan Syria Religious
  communities substituting for state
• Policing or deterrence caused by status
  ambiguity?
• Causes nature of flight
• Complex nature of Iraqi conflict(s) victims and
  participation in conflict
• Humanitarian response fuelling violence?
• Limited international aid to refugees
• Yet state / community capabilities nature
  flight

6
The Politics of the Humanitarian Response

• Hum. deliberately overlooking politics
• Obstacles and challenges response to Iraqi
  refugees are political require policy decisions
  grounded in compromise by all actors involved
• Arab academia and media platform for initiating
  debate

7
Politics Policy matter Iraqi refugees response

• The politics of numbers
• Host poverty parallel aid institutions
• NGOs, INGOs and aid delivery
• The politics of resettlement
• Third country reluctance
• Criteria used for most vulnerable
• Third country procedures for eligibility

8

• Iraqi refugee crisis Implications, obstacles and
  challenges
• Potential for future refugees-related violence
  instability watch 3 levels Pol.
• Acknowledge and articulate humanitarian
  challenges are political to the core in order to
  allow for political compromise enabling optimal
  humanitarian response
• Arab academia media initiate debate

9
Related publications

• Regional Conflict Formations Is the Middle
  East Next?, inThird World Quarterly, June 2007.
  
• When Do Refugees Bring Trouble? The Conflict
  Implications of the Iraqi Exodus to Jordan,
  Lebanon and Syria, in Third World Quarterly,
  (forthcoming)

Dr. Reinoud Leenders, University of Amsterdam,
reinoudleenders_at_yahoo.com