OnBat Project

1

• On-Bat Project
• Micro SOFC for portable application
• WP 5
• Project Management
• TeECon Consulting
• Dr. Hans-Walter Praas
• Radebeul,
• Germany Nov. 17th, 2005

2
Outline

• Background
• Field of interest
• Evaluation process for ONE BAT project
• Assessment of application entrance strategy
• Industrial partner evaluation process
• Application and energy source roadmap

3
Background

• I Technology has been developed, but still
  breakthrough waited
• Japanese Toshiba, NEC, Hitachi, Fujitsu and Casio
  take lead (wow, they are the losers in secondary
  batterydoes it happen by accident?), the first
  product will be launched soon in 05CY (but they
  said 07CY would be the target year)
• Japanese NTT and KDDI expect FC can be new power
  device for 3.5/4G
• Sad news is the stopping of Nokias FC
  development
• II What is the killer application?
• Cellular phone with TV tuner and HDD REC/PLAY
• NBPC which runs 10-100 hours
• Electric motor bike for ecology
• It seems that co-generation system for house is
  more promising in Japan
• III Conclusion 1st gen FC will not compete with
  secondary battery
• FC is charger as accessory, still equipment needs
  internal LIB/Laminate
• If users accept such a device, which can be the
  next step for 2nd gen FC
• If FC charger performs good, which can be the
  driving force to expand portable equipment market
  and secondary battery industry would be also
  happy
• If IIT is consulting someone, we recommend to
  develop 2 cells 18650 charger with built-in
  AC-charger for power consuming cellular

Positive impact on rechargeable battery business
Source Takeshita April 2005
4
Field of Interest
Micro SOFC for portable application a
revolution of energy, when, what . Is the time
right, what are the limits and show stoppers.
SOFC
Rugged Computer
Soldier Power
Professional Video
Consumer Notebooks
Mobile phones / PDA / MDA
5
Evaluation process for ONE BAT project
During the project periode the main task and
validation belongs to an PROVE of CONCEPT.
Targed varification
Process varification
Application varification
Industrial partner selection
3m 4 8 m 6 10m 8 12m
The project validation (quarterly based) covers
always a technical assessment, followed by
timing, the competitions (on battery and FC) and
potential application partners.
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Assessment of application entrance strategy

• LiB/LiP total Market volume 1.25 Billion units
  in 2003
• Position Company Volume (M Cells)
• 1 Sanyo 350
• 2 Sony 250
• 3 BYD (China) 125
• 4 MBI (Matsushita) 100
• 5 SDI ( Samsung) 75
• 6 LG 32
• 7 GSMT (Sanyo) 30
• 8 ATB (Toshiba) 20
• 8 companies represent 80 LiB/LiP marketshare

7
Market Overview Portable Device Drivers
Assessment of application entrance strategy

• Mobility is rapidly increasing (Laptop,
  Cellphone, PDA, MP3...)
• Product life cycle of mobile devices is
  shortening
• Run time of mobile devices and number of features
  is increasing
• Power source (Battery) capacity must increase
• Application power consumption must decrease
• Different technical requirements depending on
  application (speciality
• markets)

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Assessment of application entrance strategy
Market Overview Battery Drivers

• Energy density (volume, weight)
• Power density (volume, weight)
• Device design (form factor)
• Environmental conditions (temperature)
• Safety (UL)

9
Industry Value Chain Analysis
Assessment of application entrance strategy
OEM
Distributor
Battery Manufacturer
Pack Assembler
ODM
End User
Partner
Representative Distributor
End User
Small OEM
Pack Assembler
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Li-technology will dominate high end applications
with Li-polymer substantially growing its share
Market trends in portable application
Battery technology share, 2001,
Growth trendCAGR 2004 - 2008
Pricetrend
Battery technology share, 2006,
Main applications
NiMH
19
Digitalcamera
81
Li-ion
52
48
NiMH
Li-ion
26
Li-ion
Li-ion
12
4
e-bike
20
NiCd
59
37
NiMH
NiCd
29
59
NiMH
NiMH
Li-p
5
3
Laptop PDA
9
6
NiMH
Li-p
18
89
88
Li-ion
Li-ion
NiMH
NiMH
4
2
Camcorder
15
NiCd
2
52
45
NiCd
Li-ion
83
Li-ion
19
NiMH
32
NiMH
0
81
68
Power tools
NiCd
NiCd
Source Avicenne, Arthur D. Little
11
Li-technology will dominate high end applications
with Li-polymer substantially growing its share
Market trends in portable application
Battery technology share, 2001,
Growth trendCAGR 2004 - 2008
Pricetrend
Battery technology share, 2006,
Main applications
NiCd
40
43
NiMH
0
NiCd
57
60
NiMH
RC Models
26
NiMH
Cordlessphone
-3
54
46
NiMH
NiCd
NiCd
74
23
NiMH
26
NiCd
-6
Household
77
74
NiCd
NiMH
9
NiMH
Security
100
-7
NiCd
91
NiCd
Li-p
NiMH
9
13
Cellphone
28
NiMH
5
22
Li-p
65
Li-ion
65
Li-ion
Source Avicenne, Arthur D. Little
12
Assessment of application entrance strategy
System concept for SOFC
System concept for Batteries
Battery
SOFC
Integrated Energy Solutions
Control electronics
Pack Assembly
Sustaining a profitable business will require
playing a new game
13
Assessment of application entrance strategy
High value, low volume market creates acceptence
and confidence


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Industrial partner evaluation process
Independed of the energy system, large OEM main
market requires reliable and very cost optimized
energy source products.
medium value
high value

• Market entrance strategy depends of achievements
  during the first phase. Best approach is always
  in Quadrant I.

Military
Speciality Markets
Medical
Health care
Scanner
Laptop
medium value
DSC
PDA
Handy
Volume Markets
Packer
Spot Market
low value
Customized Product
Standard Product
15
Industrial partner evaluation process
Industrial partner after prove of Concept
16
Industrial partner evaluation process
Application assessment spread sheet (example for
Li-Ion)
17
Energy source roadmap
Large OEM Li-Ion manufacturer entering various
applications
Source LG chem Roadmap portable batteries
18
Energy source roadmap

• The future will see increased mobility due to a
  wider range of utility of portable power sources
• This will create the opportunity for new
  applications of portable power technology

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Contact
TeECon Consulting Am Gymnasium 4 01445
Radebeul Germany 49 (0) 351 83 38 47 3 49
(0) 351 83 38 47 4 (Fax) 49 (0) 172 37 37
02 2 (Mobil) Hw.praas_at_teecon.de