Eurabia

1
Eurabia?

• The Foreign Policy Implications ofWest Europes
  Religious Composition in 2025and Beyond
• Eric Kaufmann
• Birkbeck College, University of London
• e.kaufmann_at_bbk.ac.uk

2
'Eurabia' Discourse, 2015

• America (Steyn, Lewis)
• Europe (Bolkestein, Chesnais, etc)
• 2015 is scaremongering, but
• What are the demographic trends?
• What are the political implications for domestic
  and foreign policy?

3
Modernity, Demography, Politics

• In the long run, populations stable
• Demography Modernity Brings Demographic
  Transition
• Politics Modernity Makes Numbers Count, Not
  Kings
• 'Masses Ushered into History' what the masses
  believe matters
• Nation
• Ethnic group
• Class
• Even religion (not of the king, but popular
  creeds)

4
Modernity Demographic Conflict?

• Telescopes Global Instability within nations
• Uneven Demographic Transition, uneven age
  structures. Global migration pressures.
• Nationalism geopolitics. Which nation is
  growing, which losing, which old, which young?
• Liberty relaxed immigration. Permits global
  demographic instability to affect the country
• Democracy elections as a census. Which ethnic
  group will dominate the election and hold power?
• Equality more rights and entitlements. Which
  ethnic group pays tax, which gets the benefit?

5
Modernity Pacific Forces

• Technology insulates small, rich countries from
  populous poor aggressors
• Liberty softens inter-ethnic and inter-national
  boundaries (??)
• Nationalism integrates or assimilates internal
  ethnic diversity (??)
• Modernity and Demography where does the balance
  lie? Arguably the conflict drivers are more
  potent than the mitigators

6
Demographic Change and Ethnic Violence

• Tight Ethnic Boundaries Demographic Change
• Lebanon
• Israel/Palestine
• N. Ireland
• Bosnia
• Kosovo
• Uganda
• Ivory Coast
• Assam/India
• USA c. 1840-60 1885-1925? France, c. 1900?

7
Ethnic Change in the West

• Looser ethnic boundaries integration can
  dissipate conflict
• California 90 pc white in 1960 50 pc in 2000
  30 pc in 2050 USA 90 pc white in 1960, 50 pc
  white in 2050
• UK 8 pc nonwhite in 2001, 25 pc in 2050
• No 'Rivers of Blood', despite demographic change

8
Takes Two to Tango

• Inter-Faith Marriage from 90 pc endogamy to 50
  pc among American Jews and Catholics after 1960
• Inter-Racial Marriage 1/3 of Hispanics, ½ of
  East Asians, even 10 pc of African-Americans in
  USA
• UK more children with one white and one black
  parent being born than with two black parents
• Holland high Indonesian and Caribbean
  intermarriage
• Gellner counter-entropic resistance (Jews)
• Will Muslim minorities follow the trend?

9
Source (Maréchal 2002)
10
Source Goujon et al. 2006
11
Muslim Demographic Trends

• Austria 9-10 pc Muslim in 2025
• Switzerland 7-8 pc Muslim in 2025
• Current Estimate W. Europe 7-8 pc Muslim in 2025
  similar to France today
• Urban concentration in 'majority minority'
  cities Amsterdam (49 pc non-Dutch in 2004)
  Leicester (50 pc nonwhite by 2010, Birmingham by
  2027)
• Younger 1/5 UK births to foreign-born mother ½
  in London 1/3 in Moscow 15 pc in Rome

12
No Muslim Secularization
W. European Muslim sample of 3.17, N 174
13
Low Muslim Secularization
14
(No Transcript)
15
Political Effects in 2025

• Effects felt first in maternity wards and primary
  schools, much later in voting booth. 2025 too
  early.
• Unless immigrant groups concentrate in 'swing'
  constituencies (i.e. California, Florida and
  Hispanics)
• Foreign Policy More likely effect is media and
  political elite fears of youth radicalization

16
A Delayed Effect
Source The Moment of Truth, Haaretz, 8
February 2007
17
Wildcards

• White v. Nonwhite coalition (nationalist
  cleavage)
• Christian-Secular anti-Muslim coalition
  (civilizational cleavage)
• Muslim-Christian 'religious' coalition? 55 of
  London's Christians are nonwhite. More mosque
  attendance than Anglican. Shift from
  ethnic-sectarian to religious cleavage in USA,
  1968-1980. (moral-religious cleavage)