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National Coal Corp.

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The days of over supply and excess capacity are not gone ... 8 to $3 a ton, and may lower prep and wash plant costs by up to 50% in Tennessee. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: National Coal Corp.


1
National Coal Corp.
  • McCloskey
  • Coal USA
  • June 27, 2007

2
Forward-Looking Information
  • This presentation contains forward-looking
    statements that include information relating to
    future events and future financial and operating
    performance. Examples of forward looking
    statements include the projected production,
    revenues, profitability and cash flows from new
    mines opened on the New River Tract.
    Forward-looking statements should not be read as
    a guarantee of future performance or results, and
    will not necessarily be accurate indications of
    the times at, or by which, that performance or
    those results will be achieved. Forward looking
    statements are based on information available at
    the time they are made and/or managements good
    faith belief as of that time with respect to
    future events, and are subject to risks and
    uncertainties that could cause actual performance
    or results to differ materially from those
    expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking
    statements. Important factors that could cause
    these differences include, but are not limited
    to
  • the worldwide demand for coal
  • the price of coal
  • the price of alternative fuel sources
  • the supply of coal and other competitive factors
  • the costs to mine and transport coal
  • the ability to obtain new mining permits
  • the costs of reclamation of previously mined
    properties
  • the risks of expanding coal production
  • the ability to bring new mining properties
    on-line on schedule
  • industry competition
  • our ability to continue to execute our growth
    strategies and
  • general economic conditions.
  • These and other risks are more fully described in
    the Companys filings with the Securities and
    Exchange Commission including the Companys most
    recently filed Annual report on Form 10-K and
    Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, which should be
    read in conjunction herewith for a further
    discussion of important factors that could cause
    actual results to differ materially from those in
    the forward-looking statements.  Forward-looking
    statements speak only as of the date they are
    made.  You should not put undue reliance on any
    forward-looking statements.  We assume no
    obligation to update forward-looking statements
    to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions
    or changes in other factors affecting
    forward-looking information, except to the extent
    required by applicable securities laws.  If we do
    update one or more forward-looking statements, no
    inference should be drawn that we will make
    additional updates with respect to those or other
    forward-looking statements.

3
McCloskey Coal USA
  • How it Looked from the Street
  • How it Looks in the Cockpit
  • Daniel Roling
  • President CEO
  • National Coal Corp.

4
McCloskey Coal USA
  • From the Street
  • The Coal Industry looked different I am sure
    that is not a big surprise
  • My perception was that the industry was changing
  • Consolidation would bring producer discipline,
    reinvestment, and profitability
  • Gross over supply and excess capacity were just
    about gone
  • Large producers would level the playing field
    with the large customers
  • Transportation of coal would always be an issue
    given the existing oligopoly for the
    transportation of coal
  • Also, the coal industry seemed to be divided into
    various camps
  • The Private companies and the Public companies
  • The Small companies and the Large companies
  • The well managed companies and the not so well
    managed companies
  • But I was a firm believer in the thesis that
    consolidation was good for the industry, and
    therefore, for all of the participants
  • In Summary I was bullish on the Coal Industry

5
McCloskey Coal USA
  • From the Cockpit
  • The coal industry is in a rapidly changing
    transition period
  • Consolidation is occurring
  • A number of acquisitions have been announced
    recently
  • Cleveland Cliffs buying PinnOak Resources
  • CONSOL Energy buying AMVEST Corporation
  • Alpha Natural Resources buying assets from Arch
    Coal
  • National Coal buying Mann Steel Products
  • But De-Consolidation is also occurring
  • Peabody Energy spinning out Patriot Coal
  • Magnum Coal created out of assets mainly from
    Arch Coal

6
McCloskey Coal USA
  • From the Cockpit continued
  • Coal remains an over supplied commodity without
    industry leadership or discipline
  • The days of over supply and excess capacity are
    not gone
  • Major coal companies utilization rates are near
    capacity
  • Utility customer coal stockpiles are near five
    year highs
  • Clearly, supply is once again exceeding demand
  • Large coal producers are not leveling the playing
    field with large customers
  • Volume remains their driver with production
    targets being more important than profitability
  • It appears that small companies have more
    flexibility, or willingness, to adjust production
    than the large producers

7
McCloskey Coal USA
  • From the Cockpit continued
  • In Summary I remain bullish on coal because
  • I believe demand will exceed supply in the not
    too distant future
  • During 2006 supply exceeded demand, but during
    2007 demand will exceed supply as a result of
  • mine closures
  • Increased electricity generation
  • Weak US Dollar imports are declining and
    exports are increasing
  • Strong International demand for coal, China is
    now a net importer
  • Inventories have peaked
  • Consolidation is occurring and it is positive
  • During 2006 the top 10 producers represented 77
    of total coal production versus only 33 during
    1980

8
McCloskey Coal USA
  • How many of these names do you recognize?

Source Keystone Coal Industry Manual
9
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Consolidation is happening
  • The Keystone Coal Industry Manual has shrunk by
    half

Source EIA, NMA
10
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Perception versus the Reality about Consolidation
    in the Coal Industry
  • Perception
  • The perception about the coal industry is that
    consolidation is occurring
  • There is constant discussion about MA activity
  • Some of it rumor, some of it fact some of it
    friendly, some of it hostile
  • Reality
  • A significant amount has already occurred
  • The top 10 producers now account for 77 of
    production
  • The top 10 producers accounted for only 33 of
    production during 1980
  • But more needs to happen because
  • Coal producers continue to out number customers
    by a significant amount
  • Consolidation in the utility sector has been very
    significant
  • Consolidation in the transportation sector has
    also been significant

11
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Perception versus the Reality in the Coal
    Industry
  • Perception
  • There is plenty of coal
  • Reality
  • Yes there is, but not all of it can be mined
    economically
  • Perception
  • Coal is fungible, substitution is easily done
    without consequences
  • Reality
  • Its not, and there are consequences
  • Issues include de-rating of output, increased
    maintenance,
  • non-performance e.g., fusion
  • Perception
  • Someone will always produce the coal
  • Reality
  • Not true, a number of producers have exited the
    business and others are on the verge of exiting
    it
  • Capital reinvestment in the industry has been
    lacking during the past decade

12
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Central Appalachia (CAPP)
  • An important area for coal reserves
  • A major region containing high quality reserves
  • But, the economic reserve base is declining
  • Also, the production base is declining with
    increasing costs
  • Deteriorating mining conditions, e.g., thinning
    seam thickness
  • Higher costs associated with new safety
    regulations
  • Higher operating costs due to increasing cost of
    supplies, e.g., steel diesel
  • Production will continue to decline, possibly to
    180 million tons by 2010
  • Reversal of this trend is a function of customer
    demand and prices
  • CAPP is in need of consolidation, it is long
    overdue
  • There are too few customers relative to the
    supply of producers
  • Supply continues to exceed demand as producers
    focus on volume
  • The last ton produced sets the stage for all tons
    sold

13
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Central Appalachian (CAPP) Coal Production peaked
    during 1997 at 287million tons, but declined to
    232 million tons during 2006
  • Through May 2007 CAPP production has declined
    approximately 9 versus the prior year period to
    about 92 million tons
  • Our estimate for 2007 CAPP production is only 214
    million tons, and still declining

Source Energy Publishing
14
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Inventories are close to the five-year high set
    during May of 2002
  • Producers are contributing to the over-supply
    with their focus on volume

Source EIA
15
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Supply and Demand always set the price
  • Over supply usually leads to higher inventories
    and reflects a weak market
  • Lower inventory levels usually reflect a tighter
    market and strong demand
  • The inverse relationship between price and
    inventory remains consistent

Source Argus, EIA Coal Pricing Big Sandy CSX
Rail, 12,500 Btu/lb, 2.0 lbs SO2
16
McCloskey Coal USA
  • National Coal Business Strategy
  • Focus on safety and environmental stewardship
  • Improve profitability cash flow
  • Improve production efficiencies
  • Increase production and develop reserves
  • Continue to develop strong customer relationships
  • Growth
  • Organic
  • Acquisition

17
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Revenue EBITDA
  • Revenue has increased strongly during the past
    three years from 17M to 87.5M
  • EBITDA declined during 2006 along with the price
    of coal

18
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Reduce Costs
  • Average Cost-of-Sales of 48.31 during 2006 was
    primarily due to the three capital projects that
    were completed but then idled Mine 17, Baldwin
    preparation facility, and the short-line
    railroad.

19
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Reduced Operating Costs
  • When market conditions improve, National Coal is
    able to expand production by utilizing existing
    preparation and load-out facilities to leverage
    fixed costs and reduce production costs.
  • We will further reduce the average cost of
    production by maximizing utilization of highwall
    miners our lowest cost mining method available.
  • As a company we will also maintain tight control
    on the cost and volume of coal purchased from
    third parties and will opportunistically purchase
    coal shipments at a lower cost to fulfill sales
    commitments.
  • In February 2006, we purchased a second highwall
    miner on the Straight Creek Tracts in
    Southeastern Kentucky.
  • National Coal acquired and renovated a 42-mile
    Tennessee rail line leading directly into its
    owned reserves on the New River Tract, with
    service to its Smoky Junction and Baldwin load
    out facilities.
  • As a result of these improvements, it is
    estimated National Coal increased shipping
    capacity from 40,000 to more than 250,000 clean
    tons a month, may reduce transportation costs
    from 8 to 3 a ton, and may lower prep and wash
    plant costs by up to 50 in Tennessee.

20
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Increase Profitable Production Efficiency
  • The addition of the 42-mile railroad provided
    rail access to proven and owned reserves that
    were previously uneconomical to mine due to high
    trucking costs and road limitations. It also
    provides National Coal with an opportunity to
    become competitive in the area of transportation,
    as a dedicated rail line is more cost effective
    for our customers, and should help in
    renegotiating expired transportation contracts.
  • Suspending activity at three facilities and
    focusing on developing production from lower-cost
    sites, such as the highwall mines, will increase
    the profitability of each ton produced.
  • We have permits in place to open or re-open five
    coal mines close to our current operations
  • We have one inactive unit train coal loading
    facility, and two inactive coal preparation
    facilities
  • Lastly, our short line railroad is fully
    operational, but not in service at present

21
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Average Cost of Sales Average Sales Price
  • Average Cost-of-Sales of 48.31 for 2006
  • Average sales price of 52.86 for 2006

22
McCloskey Coal USA
  • No Legacy Costs Good Prices
  • National Coal is 100 union-free and therefore is
    not burdened with union pension liabilities or
    post-retirement medical benefit obligations.
  • Our relatively new status within the marketplace
    means we are not held back by long-term contracts
    at prices significantly below the market in
    fact, our current supply contracts average 50.86
    per ton for 2007, which is comparable to our
    closest competitors.
  • Alpha Natural Resources calculated as average
    realized price all others average committed
    price

23
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Committed Tons and Prices
  • National Coal has not locked in any meaningful
    amounts of coal to be sold under contract for
    2008 and beyond.
  • For 2007, we have approximately 1,402,500 tons of
    committed and priced sales volumes at an average
    contract price of 50.86 per ton.
  • For 2008, we have approximately 210,000 tons of
    committed and priced sales volumes at an average
    contract price of 52.49 per ton.

24
McCloskey Coal USA
  • High Quality Well Positioned Reserves
  • The Company engaged Marshall Miller Associates,
    Inc., an independent mining engineering firm, to
    evaluate its reserves.
  • As of December 31, 2006, NCOC controls
    approximately 36.2 million tons of proven and
    probable reserves that are recoverable at this
    time.
  • The study found that the reserves are primarily
    made up of high Btu, low and mid-sulfur deposits,
    and at present have a lifetime of 10 to 20 years.
  • Our strong reserve locations provide freight cost
    advantage and pricing flexibility.
  • Over 65 of total acreage on which these reserves
    are located is owned by NCOC which is a distinct
    advantage over leasing because there are no
    royalty payments on owned reserves.
  • The Southeastern part of the United States is the
    largest electricity market in the country.

25
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Growth Strategy Organic Acquired
  • As part of its ongoing growth strategy, National
    Coal has plans to opportunistically acquire
    nearby mines and coal reserves to leverage its
    investments in existing railroad and wash plant
    facilities.
  • It is the natural acquirer of contiguous reserves
    and of existing, synergistic operations that have
    proximity to its current operations.
  • Therefore, the Companys ongoing plans to acquire
    available Central Appalachian properties through
    a combination of financing strategies and
    operational initiatives, is anticipated to
    contribute positively to the current trend toward
    consolidation, and may contribute to future
    growth.
  • National Coal has purchased an exploration rig to
    accelerate exploration and further expand proven
    and probable coal reserves.
  • Capital expenditures the last three years totaled
    71 million, setting the stage for strong organic
    growth in a strong coal market
  • Capital expenditures for 2007 are budgeted for 5
    million

26
McCloskey Coal USA
  • National Coal purchases Mann Steel Products
  • We entered into a stock purchase agreement with
    Mann Steel Products to acquire 100 of the stock
    of the company for 55 million
  • The acquisition is expected to close by the end
    of the third quarter
  • The acquisition will add about 1 million tons of
    capacity to our existing annual capacity of about
    2 million tons
  • Production currently is estimated at about 1
    million tons
  • Mann Steel Products has three active surface
    mines in Alabama and produces steam and
    industrial coal for the domestic market

27
McCloskey Coal USA
  • National Coal is an Enduring Supplier
  • High Quality and Well Positioned Reserves
  • Close Proximity to Blue Chip Customers
  • Diversified Asset Base
  • Commitment to Safety and Environment
  • Strong Leadership

On a dry basis
28
McCloskey Coal USA
  • National Coal Supplies the Southeast
  • At present, National Coal has contracts in place
    with these neighboring utilities to sell
    approximately 2.0 million tons of coal into 2010.
  • We are actively pursuing new contracts in the
    market at present.

29
McCloskey Coal USA
  • Becoming A Leader
  • National Coal remains a new, innovative and
    growing company with a bright future ahead. Our
    youth provides us with the opportunity to carry
    out a fresh approach to coal production.
  • Energy demand is anticipated to remain strong in
    the developed world and increase in emerging
    markets. The infrastructure we have built over
    the last three years will support us as we
    capitalize on the opportunity available in the
    Southeastern U.S.
  • Consolidation in the coal industry is forecast to
    continue and may even accelerate given the recent
    weakness in prices and valuations. We are in an
    advantageous position to acquire continuous
    properties and take to advantage of this market
    phenomenon.
  • National Coals strong reserve position will
    serve the company well going forward.
  • Coal is the economic fuel for electricity
    generation today, tomorrow and well into the
    future. Companies like National Coal that are
    prepared to supply coal at competitive prices
    will lead the industry into the next decade.

30
National Coal Corp.
  • McCloskey
  • Coal USA
  • June 27, 2007
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