New Strategic Framework

1
(No Transcript)
2
New Strategic Framework

• Launched new Strategic Framework 2005-15
• COPES aim to make every letter have value

• Celebrated 25 great years

• Two Objectives underlined
• Climate predictability
• Human effects on climate
• Goal is end-user value

WCRP celebrates 25 yrs
3
Climate Forecast Human Health

• Malaria outbreaks risk serious
• Poor forecasts children die

• In future pole-ward migration

• Ensembles improve todays forecasts (Palmer et
  al., )
• Achieving greater skill and
• Increased lead time 6 months

• Indigenous local population benefits are
  delivered now

Palmer et al., Norbert Gerbier Mumm prize 06
4
Human Impact of Heat-waves

• Health risk of heat-waves

• Costly e.g. Europe 03
• 30,000 deaths August 03
• losses US1.3 billion

• Risk increase with warming
• New ESSP greenhouse scenarios for IPCC AR5

• Hawaii coordination for AR4 SBSTA24 web-cast
  UNFCCC research needs

http//unfccc.meta-fusion.com/kongresse/SB24/temp
l/ply_sideevent
5
Climate Variability in Africa

• African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)
• obs Jan Feb 06

Dakar conf100 of 255

• VACS (Variability of Climate Systems)
• atlas on line used

• wshop in Tanzania

June 06 WCRP CLIPs

• Involving users local researchers

6
Sea-level Rise Uncertainty

• Sea-level surges already
• Islands and estuaries especially vulnerable

• Big storm floods cause loss, social conflict,
  insurance

• Ghouse projection
• risk increase - UN CSD May
• IOC wshop June

• Envirnl. refugees

• Not if but when.

7
WCRP Road-mapping in 2006

• Two objectives to determine (i) the
  predictability of climate (ii) the effects of
  human activities on climate

Implementation
ESSP

• Two tools modelling and observations

• Strategic Goals (by 2015) seamless prediction
  of climate ES understanding

1. WCRPs current projects
3. Out toward ESS partners
2. Migrate in with THORPEX
8
To Seamless-ness with THORPEX

• Tropical convection/ MJO for climate weather
• Trieste 3/06 white paper computer needs
• 1 year effort maybe 2008

• Exploit 3 improvements
• EOS-era of satellite obs

• GOOS real progress

• Cloud-resolving models

• Massive benefits leverage
• Monsoons- new WIS focus

9
Towards Earth System Science with
DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP, WCRP

Hosts CMA
Integrated Regional Focus for End-users
Open Science Conference Beijing, 9-12 Nov 2006
ESSP is a joint initiative of