IRS Migration Data

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IRS Migration Data Profiles

• From the
• Missouri Census Data Center

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Track Migration Via Tax Returns

• IRS matches households across consecutive tax
  years
• Able to determine if a return that came from
  County A in year N comes from a different county
  the following year.
• If 500 returns filed from LA County, CA in 2004
  are matched to returns in 2005 from Clark co, NV
  in 2005 what does it mean?

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Background

• IRS has produced their county-to-county summary
  files for years.
• These are used by the FSCPE as a key input for
  the migration portion of the annual county
  estimates.
• Files are not freely available IRS uses them as
  a cash cow.

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http//enterprise.star-telegram.com/ARCIms/Maps/cl
t/2007/irsmig.asp

• Charlotte Observer Creates online Access

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Displayed Maps and Tables Like This
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Inspired by the Charlotte Observer site

• We (Missouri Census Data Center) contacted the
  IRS and placed our order for data back to
  1999/2000 and thru 2004/2005.
• Paid several hundred . Received a cd-rom with
  lots and lots of Excel files.
• Two xls files per county 1 for in-movers and 1
  for out-movers.

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We Converted the xls Files

• Access the resulting data collection
  athttp//mcdc2.missouri.edu/cgi-bin/uexplore?/pub
  /data/irsmig
• Original data in csv format saved here as well as
  the xls files -- for Mo only.
• Usinmig9900 thru usinmig0506 are the huge
  datasets with inmigration.
• Corresponding usoutmig datasets have
  out-migration data.

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Datasets are Nice But Reports

• Are what everybody wants. So we needed to create
  an application that would turn the raw data into
  something users could easily access and
  interpret.
• We created a profile application that displayed
  all relevant data for a single county the IRS
  Migration Profile.

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Profile Details

• Report title identifies the county subtitle
  indicates the years.
• Each line of report summarizes implied migration
  flows both into and out of the profile county.
  
• The Migration Flow Area can be another county
  or some larger total (such as total or total
  domestic).

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The LA Migration Profile Tells Us

• Under Migration Into/ Returns in first row
  we find 100,584 . This is the total of tax
  returns filed in LA county in 2005 that were NOT
  linked to a return in that county in 2004. So
  this is a proxy for in-migration at the HH level.
  
• The 165,767 Exemptions figure is just the total
  exemptions reported on those 100,584 returns.
• 23,179 was the median (middle) gross income fig
  for those 100,584 returns.

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Migration Out of Los Angeles CA

• These 4 items (rightmost columns of profile)
  track out-migration.
• Based on returns filed in LA county in 2004 that
  were found in a different county or country in
  2005.
• It does not include people who did not file in
  2005 (such as people who died).

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About the Report

• Only migration flows of 10 or more are reported
  on the IRS files and hence in these reports.
• A parm can be specified to raise this threshold.
  I.e. you can specify you only want to see data
  for areas where there at least 40 total flows.
• Gross flows Returns Into Returns Out of.
• The report is sorted by descending Gross flows.

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Generating a Report

• Access the main menu page at http//mcdc2.missour
  i.edu/cgi-bin/uexplore?/pub/data/irsmig/Migration_
  Profiles
• To locate this URL go to the Missouri Census Data
  Center home page and do a search on IRS
  profile follow the Whats New link.
• Select a state first. Then on the application
  page choose the county, the year(s) and, if
  needed, a higher threshold.
• Click the Generate Report button.

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Note Also

• http//mcdc.missouri.edu/data/irsmig/Migration_Pro
  files/ is an alternate URL.
• If you fail to choose a county you will get a
  report showing state totals only not very
  interesting.
• You can also find a link to these reports using
  our applinks interface the URL is of the form
  http//mcdc2.missouri.edu/cgi-bin/applinks?st
  co Where is the 2-digits fips
  state code and is the fips county code.
  The irsmig_profile entry will be the last on the
  resulting menu page.

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More Notes

• The latest year of data (based on tax years 2005
  2006) did not have any data on gross income.
  Not sure if gone forever.
• IRS was reluctant to sell us the 05/06 data
  (because we were putting it on the web.)
• See article by Emily Groos, IRS, at
  http//www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/05gross.pdf

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Questions?

• John Blodgett
• blodgettj_at_umsystem.edu