State

1
State County Characteristics Overview

• The basics
• State
• The general method
• July 1, 2000 beginning population
• Domestic migration
• IRS pre-processing
• State domestic migration
• Race conversion (4 to 31)
• County
• The general method
• Domestic migration

2
State County Characteristics The Basics

• State and county population by ASRO
• SYA (0 84, 85) by sex, race (31 races), and
  Hispanic origin (Hispanic, non-Hispanic)
• Year-to-year approach to creating time series
• Processed in two separate steps
• State characteristics
• County characteristics

3
State Characteristics The General Method

• Calculate preliminary population estimates
• Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population
• Add births, subtract deaths, add net
  international migration, and add military
  movement
• Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic
  out-migration
• Calculate proportions
• Use proportions to distribute estimates
• National ASRO
• State age-sex
• Convert from 4 to 31 races

will be discussed in detail in this workshop
4
State Characteristics July 1, 2000 Beginning
Population

• Calculate preliminary population estimates
• Begin with GUSSIE base
• Convert from 31 to 4 races
• Remove GQ population to get HH population
• Calculate proportions
• Use proportions to distribute previous July 1,
  2000 HH estimates
• National ASRO
• State age-sex
• Add GQ population to get resident population

will be discussed in detail in this workshop
5
State Characteristics July 1, 2000 Beginning
Population (cont.)

• Race conversion 31 to 4
• Equi-proportional assignment of persons in
  multi-race categories to single-race categories
  (31 to 5 categories)
• Combine Asian and Native Hawaiian and other
  Pacific Islander categories into Asian and
  Pacific Islander (5 to 4 categories)

6
State Characteristics Domestic Migration -
Overview

• Pre-process IRS migration data
• State domestic migration
• Calculate state out-migration
• Calculate state in-migration
• County domestic migration
• Recalculate interstate in- and out- migration
• Distribute interstate migration flows to counties
• Calculate intrastate migration rates migrants
• Distribute intrastate migration totals to counties

will be discussed in detail in this workshop
7
State Characteristics IRS Pre-processing -
Overview

1. Obtain administrative record data
2. Match across administrative record sources
3. Assign characteristics to filer and exemptions
4. Compare Y1 and Y2 FIPS codes
5. Define migration universe
6. Tally exemptions by demographic characteristics

8
State Characteristics Obtain Administrative
Record Data

• Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040 files
• Address in 2002 (Y1)
• Address in 2003 (Y2)
• Number of exemptions filer, spouse, child,
  parent
• Social Security Numident File
• Collapse records to Census Numident Person
  Characteristics File (PCF)
• File contains modeled age, sex, race, and
  Hispanic origin for all persons with an SSN

9
State Characteristics Match Across
Administrative Records

• Bureau committed to privacy and confidentiality
• Convert SSN on tax records to Protected
  Identifier Key (PIK)
• Match Y1 and Y2 IRS files by filers PIK
• Match Y1-Y2 IRS file to PCF by filers PIK
• Convert filers return to individual records for
  filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions on
  the tax return

10
State Characteristics Assign ASRO

• Assign ASRO for Y1-Y2 matched records that match
  to the PCF
• Age
• Filer and spouse exemptions are assigned filers
  age from PCF
• Child exemptions are assigned to a 19 and under
  age category
• Parent exemptions are assigned to a 65 age
  category

11
State Characteristics Assign ASRO (cont.)

• Sex
• Filer is assigned filers sex from PCF
• Spouse exemption is assigned opposite sex of
  filer
• Child and parent exemptions are assigned sex by
  random number generator
• Race and Hispanic origin
• Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are
  all assigned filers race and Hispanic origin
  from PCF
• Y1 and Y2 State and County FIPS codes
• Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are
  all assigned filers Y1 and Y2 state and county
  FIPS codes

12
State Characteristics Compare Y1 and Y2 FIPS
Codes

• Compare by equivalent geography
• Outcomes of comparison
• Y1 only
• Y2 only
• Foreign in- and out-movers
• Inter-state movers
• County-to-county movers (intra-state)
• Non-movers

13
State Characteristics Define Migration Universe

• Exclude records
• where record appears only in Y1 or Y2 file
• with a foreign address on either the Y1 or Y2
  return
• where Y1-Y2 IRS match does not match to PCF

14
State Characteristics Tallying Exemptions

• Three different measures are calculated from
  exemption data
• Inter-state migration rates
• Intra-state migration rates
• County migration shares
• Exemption data come with the following
  characteristics
• Age 0-19, SYA 20-64, 65
• Sex
• Hispanic non-Hispanic by 1990 race categories
• See handout

15
State Characteristics Domestic Migration -
Overview

1. State domestic out-migration
2. State domestic in-migration
3. State domestic migration flows

will be discussed in detail in this workshop
16
State Characteristics State Domestic
Out-migration

• Calculate a set of state out migration rates
• Out-migration rate tally 2 / tally 1 (see
  tally handout)
• If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH
  combination, additional ages are included until
  the threshold of 30 exemptions is met
• Expand to full ASRO distribution
• Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is
  assigned the rate of the category as a whole
• Smooth the out-migration rates by age and perform
  final adjustment

17
State Characteristics State Domestic
In-migration

• Calculate a set of state-to-state out-migration
  rates for each state
• Out-migration rate tally 3 / tally 1 (see
  tally handout)
• If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH
  combination, additional ages are included until
  the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

18
State Characteristics State Domestic
In-migration (cont.)

• Calculate a preliminary set of state-specific
  out-migrants for each state by IRS
  characteristics
• Out-migrants Out-migration rate for
  origin-destination state pair origin state
  population from previous vintage
• Calculate preliminary state in-migrants
• State in-migrants S(state out migrants from
  each other state to destination state)

19
State Characteristics State Domestic
In-migration (cont.)

• Sum all preliminary state in-migrant estimates
• Calculate each states in-migration proportion of
  the all-state sum 4
• State in-migration proportion preliminary state
  in-migrants / S(preliminary state in-migrants)
• Expand to full ASRO distribution
• Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is
  assigned the rate of the category as a whole
• Smooth the in-migration proportions by age and
  perform final adjustment

20
State Characteristics State Domestic Migration
Flows

• Calculate final estimates of out- and in-migrants
  by state (in the process of estimating the
  population)
• State out-migrants state out-migration rate
  state population at the beginning of the time
  interval
• State in-migrants state in-proportion
  ?(state out-migrants)

21
State Characteristics Race Conversion (4 to 31)

• Calculate conversion factors for 31 to 4 race
  conversion from the Census 2000 GUSSIE population
• Apply conversion factors to population in each
  4-race category to get population in each 31-race
  category

22
State Characteristics Summary

• Calculate preliminary population estimates
• Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population
• Add births, subtract deaths, add net
  international migration, and add military
  movement
• Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic
  out-migration
• Calculate proportions
• Use proportions to distribute estimates
• National ASRO
• State age-sex
• Convert from 4 to 31 races