UK Official Statistics on Migration: Current Methods

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UK Official Statistics on Migration Current
Methods Future Plans

• Emma Wright
• Office for National Statistics, UK

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Outline

• Methodology to estimate Total International
  Migration (TIM) to and from the UK
• Improvements planned
• Future work
• Task Force on Migration Statistics
• Short-term migration

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Methodology to estimate TIM (1)
IPS Migrants
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Methodology to estimate TIM (2)
IPS Migrants
Migrant Switchers
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Methodology to estimate TIM (3)
Visitor Switchers
IPS Migrants
Migrant Switchers
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Methodology to estimate TIM (4)
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Methodology to estimate TIM (5)
Total International Migration (TIM)
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Planned Methodology Improvements

• Increased IPS sample size for emigrants.
• Improved estimation of visitor switchers and
  migrant switchers.
• Improved geographical distribution of immigrants
  within the UK.

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TIM estimates to/from the UK 1995-2005
thousands
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Context for the future

• Large changes in scale and nature of migration
  flows to and from UK over the last decade.
• Net international migration now key driver of
  population growth.
• Traditional long-term migration streams
  continuing, but also new forms of migration
• international commuters
• temporary migrant workers from new EU Accession
  countries

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Task Force on Migration Statistics

• Cross-Government Taskforce
• Objectives
• To identify existing and new user requirements
• To recommend ways of strengthening migration
  statistics to meet these user needs
• To recommend how appropriate methods can be
  developed to use data sources in combination

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Task Force considerations

• Port and Household surveys
• Administrative data sources
• Linking data sources
• Future sources - e-Borders
• Short-term migrants

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Short-term migrants

• People living in the UK for less than 12 months
• make demands on local services, but are not
  included in the population statistics used to
  apportion funding
• may participate in the UK labour force so impact
  on labour supply and contribute to UK economy
• form an increasingly significant sector of the UK
  consumer base
• People out of the UK for less than 12 months
• may not be using services or contributing to the
  UK economy

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Short-term migrants Definition

• UN recommended definition of a short-term
  migrant
• A person who moves to a country other than
  that of his or her usual residence for a period
  of at least three months but less than a year
  (12 months), except in cases where the movement
  to that country is for purposes of recreation,
  holiday, visits to friends and relatives,
  business, medical treatment or religious
  pilgrimage.

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Short-term migrants Data sources

• IPS
• Both inflows outflows detailed information on
  length of stay, broad coverage, BUT not robust at
  local level or for detailed breakdowns.
• LFS
• Inflows only, does not cover communal
  establishments, may exclude shorter stays, not
  robust for detailed breakdowns
• Administrative data
• Inflows only, little or no information on length
  of stay, only cover specific migrant types, BUT
  can provide information at local levels.

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Estimating short-term migrants Issues

• Information collected at beginning or end of
  short-term migration event?
• Switching changing intentions, and overlap with
  long-term migration estimates.
• Reason for short-term migration
• Timing Seasonality

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• Any questions?