preferred supplier of quality statistics

1
Presentation to the Portfolio Committee on
Finance Pali Lehohla, Statistician-General
17-05-2005
preferred supplier of quality statistics
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Presentation to the Portfolio Committee on
Finance Pali Lehohla, Statistician-General

• Contents
• Feedback on Committee's recommendations of
  October 2004
• Statistics informing national priorities
• Strategic direction
• Key priorities
• Funding

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Feedback to Portfolio Committee on
recommendations following presentation of the
Annual Report (2003/04)

• Qualified Audit Report
• Relations with Statistics Council
• Measurable Objectives
• Census Replacement Survey

4
Qualified audit
The committee raised concern about the qualified
audit and the urgent need to improve financial
management and controls

1. Stats SA appeared before SCOPA on 16 March 2005
   and answered many of the detailed questions
2. Over the past year Stats SA has invested in an
   asset management system, has started
   implementation of a risk management system, and
   supply chain management
3. A Business Process Improvement project has been
   initiated to identify weaknesses in internal
   controls and ensure compliance in administrative
   processes
4. A project has been established to address
   specific problems in recruitment, procurement,
   training and policies

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Statistics Council
The committee raised concern about the
relationship between the Statistics Council and
Stats SA

1. At a meeting on 19 October 2004, Stats SA and
   Council reviewed how relationships could be
   improved.
2. Community Survey (census replacement survey) was
   discussed and planning and preparations are
   continuing. Several sub-committees continue to
   function
3. A former head of the Australian Bureau of
   Statistics reviewed the role of Council, to
   improve its functionality in the light of the
   Statistics Act. The Act was highly regarded by
   the reviewer
4. A new Council was appointed by Cabinet in April.
   The new Council has not yet had an opportunity to
   meet

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Measurable objectives
The committee raised concern about the usefulness
of the measurable objectives

1. At the meeting with Council in October, Council
   and Stats SA agreed on seven priorities
2. Stats SA has developed a range of strategic level
   performance indicators using the balanced
   scorecard as a framework
3. The strategic plan includes output and
   improvement targets and milestones per division
   for a three year period (previously one year)
4. Stats SA will continue to work on its measurable
   objectives, especially to measure the outcomes of
   the departments efforts

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Measuring strategic performance
Have formulated indicators for each strategic
objective
Example
Strategic Objective Key Performance Indicator Current performance Target Target Target Key projects
Strategic Objective Key Performance Indicator Current performance Y1 Y2 Y3 Key projects
Increase accessibility and usage of statistics Increase in number of website visits per month 25 from Sept 04 85 000 10 10 10 Dissemination strategy Training of users
Increase accessibility and usage of statistics Increase in usage 98 500 subs and 960 000 downloads 5 5 5 Dissemination strategy Training of users
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Census Replacement Survey
The committee raised concern about the lack of
clarity on the Census replacement survey

• Now known as the Community Survey, the census
  replacement survey will provide information on
  living conditions at municipal level
• Council has provided useful advice on the sample
  size and design
• Discussions with Council will continue once the
  new Council has met
• The sample size will be 17 000 enumerator areas.
  
• Results will be available in November 2007

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Building statistical capacity
The committee raised concern about the slow
progress in developing statistical capacity

• Training in official statistics is a long-term
  process
• Initiatives to date include
• Staff training in East Africa since 2001
• Masters in data mining at Wits University
• Internship programme (15 this year) increasing to
  60 over time
• Numerous in-house courses
• Goal is to have a Statistical Training Institute
• Preliminary activities will include research on
  similar institutes in other countries, liaison
  with local universities, and development of
  course material

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strategic plan
2005/06 2009/10
preferred supplier of quality statistics
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National priorities
Priority area
Relevant statistics
GDP and set of economic surveys, CPI, PPI etc
Grow the Economy
Create jobs
LFS and QES
GHS, Census, Community survey, Municipal Census
Deliver services
Eradicate poverty
GHS, Census, Community survey
Improve health
Mortality statistics
Contribution to statistical development
Impact Africa and the world
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Service delivery

• During 2004/5, Stats SA released 285 different
  statistical publications covering 53 series
• Errors identified were rapidly and
  transparently addressed in line with
  international standards
• Stats SA has put new systems and processes in
  place to address quality of its statistics
• Presentation will focus on context of quality
  improvements and our priorities in this regard
  for the next year

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System of Statistics
National Accounts
Quarterly and annual gross domestic product
estimatesBenchmarking gross domestic product
estimates
Annual supply use tablesSatellite accounts
Industry and Trade Statistics Primary sector
statistics Agriculture statisticsSecondary
sector statistics Tertiary sector statistics
Tourism statisticsBusiness services statistics
Social Statistics General household survey
Second economy information Master sample User
paid surveys
Financial statistics National Government Accounts
statisticsProvincial Government Accounts
statistics Local Government Accounts statistics
Non-financial Local Government
statisticsPrivate sector statistics
Vital Statistics Birth, death, health, marriage
divorce statistics Tourism statistics Migration
statistics
Economic growth
Social development
Employment Statistics Quarterly employment
surveyLabour force survey
Population Statistics Population Census Community
Survey Thematic reports on demographic
processes, fertility, health, ageing and
mortality Population projections and estimates
Price Statistics Consumer price index (CPI)Rural
consumer price indexProduction price index (PPI)
Geographic Frame
Business Frame
Methodology and Standards
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Evolution of statistics in Stats SA
95/96
00/01
05/06
10/11
Fragmented statistics
Transformation
Stabilise standardise
Coherent national statistics
No social statistics
Set of social and employment stats
Stabilised social stats
Improved living conditions information
First inclusive Census
Second census based on geographic frame
Community survey
Census 2011
Start business register improvement
Stabilised economic stats
Expanded coverage of economy
Poor quality Economic statistics
1 black manager
6 (of 19) black SMS members
48 (of 94) black SMS members
82 (of 112) black SMS members
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strategic direction
preferred supplier of quality statistics
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Strategic review
Stats SAs senior management has reviewed and
sharpened the strategy

• Key external strategic issues facing Stats SA
  are
• Need to respond to Programme of Action
• Convergence of international reporting
  mechanisms
• Need to promote greater use of statistics
• Public perceptions of Stats SA
• Key internal strategic issues facing Stats SA
  are
• Ensuring quality in statistical production
• Developing statistical infrastructure
• Improving governance
• Capacity in statistical work areas

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Vision and Mission
Vision The preferred supplier of quality
statistics
Mission Provide a relevant and accurate body of
statistics to inform users on the dynamics in the
economy and society through the application of
internationally acclaimed practices
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Stats SAs strategy
Preferred supplier of quality statistics
Vision
Information to meet user needs
Advocacy and partnerships
Building Human capacity
Good governance
Quality of Products services
Themes
Improve accuracy, timeliness coherence
Compliance
Strategic Objectives
Develop the NSS
Mgt risks
Plan execute in budget
Needs of users
Data governance
Integrate registers across government
Mgt info
Corporate image
Optimise technology
Employer of choice
Admin processes systems
International acclaimed methods
Align to Govt priorities
Equity in the work place
Promote integration amongst producers of
statistics
Leadership mgt
Increase accessibility and usage
Corporate culture and environment
Coverage of frames
BEE
Align to international frameworks
Learning organisation
Quality mgt
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priorities
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Priority matrix
Key priorities
Long-term initiatives
High
Census 2011 Geo-referenced dwelling
frame Implementing National Statistics
System Research and development Technology for
data collection and processing Re-vamping vital
statistics
Community survey CPI direct price
collections Income and Expenditure Survey Better
coverage of entire economy Data management and
information delivery (DMID) Improvements to
governance Developing statistical professionals
Degree of importance
Focal areas
Maintain Improve
Sampling frames National accounts Financial
statistics Dissemination of products
PPI reweighting Improving accuracy of key
economic series Re-engineering labour
statistics Enhance statistical infrastructure
Long-term
Priorities
Short-term
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Community Survey
Background
Previously Census was run every 5 years, provided
detailed and comprehensive information but
stretched Stats SA to the limit. Next census in
2011 with a survey to provide municipal
information in 2007
Aim
To provide information on the living conditions
of the population at municipal level and for the
equitable share

• Planning at an advanced stage
• Pilot in February 2006
• Survey in February 2007
• Results in November 2007

Progress and plans
Budget
2005/06 R200m 2006/07 R374m 2008/09
R166m Total R740m
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CPI direct price collections
Background
April 2003 - Revision of CPI figure. This led to
a substantive review of methodology
Aim
To ensure a reliable inflation index by
collecting prices directly from retail outlets

• 11 months of direct collection in Mpumalanga
• 4 months of direct collection in Gauteng
• 1 month of direct collection in Western Cape
• Training collectors in Eastern Cape
• Next province is North West
• On track for complete roll out by June 2006

Progress and plans
Budget
2005/06 R18m 2006/07 R27m 2008/09
R36,5m Total R81,5m
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Income and Expenditure Survey
Background
Previous IES had some methodological weakness
Aim
To re-weight the CPI basket of goods and services
by using diary method of collection

• Introduced new diary method needing multiple
  repeat visits to households
• 3 pilots conducted
• Difficulties experienced in accessing high-wall
  areas
• Pilot has shown costs will be higher than
  expected
• To be conducted between September 2005 and
  August 2006

Progress and plans
Budget
2005/06 R35,5m 2006/07 R11m 2008/09
R10m Total R56,5m
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Coverage of the economy
Background
Current economic surveys miss second economy and
certain sectors of formal economy
Aim
To ensure better coverage of the economy in GDP
and employment statistics to inform economic
planning

• Survey of Employers and Self Employed (SESE) in
  2005 and every three years to understand the
  second economy better
• Surveys on tourism and services over the MTEF
  period

Progress and plans
Budget
2005/06 R7m 2006/07 R0 2008/09 R32m Total
R39m
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Data management and information delivery
Background
Statistical information is currently stored in
different databases without common standards
Aim
To establish a data-warehouse for storage and
dissemination of statistics

• Five subprojects
• Meta data repository
• Classification and Related Standards (CARS)
  system
• Data repository
• Standards development
• Data governance policies
• Long term link to other government data

Progress and plans
Budget
2005/06 R14m 2006/07 R10m 2008/09
R9m Total R33m
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Improvements to governance
Background
Renewed focus on governance
Aim
To ensure full compliance with legislation that
enables implementation of the Statistics Act
Progress and plans

• Business process improvement project to
  streamline support processes and ensure
  compliance
• Appointment of legal advisor to implement the
  Statistics Act
• Asset management system rolled out
• Risk management strategy being implemented
• Storage area network and disaster recovery

Budget
2005/06 R2,5m 2006/07 R3m 2008/09
R3,5m Total R9m
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Developing statistical professionals
Background
Difficulty in recruiting suitable staff
Aim
To ensure that Stats SA has a comprehensive
programme of developing the skills and capacity
it requires

• Staff training in East Africa since 2001 over
  40 to date
• Masters in data mining at Wits
• Internship programme (15 this year) increasing
  to 60
• Numerous in-house courses
• Developing a career path system
• Medium term goal is to have a Statistical
  Training Institute

Progress and plans
2005/06 R11m 2006/07 R12m 2008/09
R14,5m Total R37,5m
Budget
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MTEF budget
R 000 Prog 1 Prog 2 Prog 3 Prog 4 Prog 5 Total
2005/06 145 964 126 370 267 951 38 325 112 647 691 257
2006/07 151 223 116 113 439 739 56 384 117 308 880 767
2007/08 162 661 153 022 262 881 71 539 129 263 779 366
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Stats SAs role in statistical development

• Staff member was runner-up in international
  young statisticians competition
• Leading the SADC Millennium Census project
• Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians 2005
• International Statistics Institute 2009
• Re-election to UN Statistics Commission
• Leader of migration group of UN expert meeting
  on Population Censuses
• Member of Advisory Board on Statistics in Africa
• Member of Board of Health Metrics Network

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Thank You
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