Storm-Based Warnings

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Storm-Based Warnings

• Overview and Impact on
• Flash/Areal Flood Warning Operations
• Hydrology Program Managers Conference
• July 11, 2007

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Polygons in 2003
Polygons in 2006
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Storm-Based Warnings

• Overview
• Impact to Flash Flood operations
• Implementation
• Training
• Impact to GPRA measures
• WarnGen Software recommendations

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Team Members

• Mike Looney, Team Lead and Facilitator (CRH)
• Noreen Schwein (CRH for OCWWS/HSD)
• Brent MacAloney (NWSH Verification Branch)
• Jeff Lorens (WRH)
• Joe Schaefer (SPC)
• Pete Wolf (WFO Jacksonville, FL)
• Steve Naglic (WFO Columbia, SC)
• Mike Coyne (WFO Huntsville, AL)
• Ken Waters (PRH)
• Rich Okulski (WFO Memphis, TN)
• Shannon White, NWSH Training
• John Ferree, (NWSH _at_ Norman, OK)

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Polygon Warning Evaluation WFOs March 1
September 30 2005
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Why Storm-Based Warnings?

• Reduction of Falsely Alarmed Area
• Decrease in Over Warning Perception
• Increase in Customer Confidence
• User Demand for Polygons
• Creation of New Industry
• Graphical Dissemination
• TV
• Internet
• Cell Phones

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Effective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid
Unnecessary Warning of Population Centers
Storm-based warnings would save the public a
minimum of 100 million dollars a year in
reduction of the cost of sheltering - Dr. Dan
Sutter Professor of Economics
Most of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex is
correctly omitted from this Storm-Based tornado
warning. New siren system selectively activated.
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Storm-Based Warning Benefits

• Warnings Focused on Weather and Water Hazards
• Warned Area Reduced on Average By 75 Up to 97
  Reduction in Western U.S. Counties
• Blue Sky Effect Reduced By Finer Resolution
  Warnings
• Warnings Defined By GIS Coordinates
• Adaptable to Local Distribution Via Cell Phones,
  PDAs, etc.
• Improved Display Capabilities for Television,
  Internet
• Better Public Service
• Improved Information For Decision Makers
  Emergency Managers
• More Accurate Depiction of Threat To U.S.
  Citizens
• Warnings Are The Best Science and Technology Can
  Provide

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Partner Acceptance of Storm-Based Tornado Warnings
Screen capture of Brian Busby at the ABC
affiliate in Kansas City, MO. WFO Kansas
City/Pleasant Hill issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning (blue) then upgraded to a Tornado Warning
(red).
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Storm-Based Warning Challenges

• Legacy Dissemination Technology Is County Based
• NOAA Weather Radio
• EAS Activation (FCC)
• Majority of Siren Systems (County/Local
  Government)
• Multiple Warnings in One County
• Easy To Differentiate Graphically Hard to
  Describe Verbally
• VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines
  Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs
• SVS summary of warnings in effect?
• CWA Boundaries
• Coordination polygon?
• AWIPS LSR software does not adequately support
  SBWs
• Alternate software is being reviewed for
  implementation

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Flash/Areal Flood Operations

• Operational change If the rain and flooding
  proceed southward, a new warning must be issued
  instead of being caught in the safety net of
  the same county.
• Multiple warnings in a county will require
  improved text descriptions
• FFMP will need to be even better utilized to
  determine direction of flow and better delineate
  threat area.

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Flash Flood OperationsOptimal use of FFMP

• Basin definitions and customization
• Directional flow indicators
• Delineated areas (urban, fire burn)

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Warning by Basins Improves FFWs
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Up and Downstream Basins hatched area
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Douglas County, CO. Flash Flood Warning
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Implementation

• Train forecasters within a month or two of
  implementation.
• Outreach with customers throughout FY07
• Outreach slide show at COMET WCM site
• Test offices continue storm-based warning
  operations
• Other offices begin when ready no later than Oct
  1, 2007

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Training

• WDTB developing training
• Available via LMS with OB8.1 July 16
• Job sheets (on CD) will be distributed
• Includes the Jacob Creek, Turnpike flash flood
• Cells moved east into neighboring CWA
• Flash Flood moved west back into original CWA
• Training will utilize FFMP

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Impact to FFW GPRA Measures

• In FY08, Warning by polygon and Verifying by
  polygon
• Fewer warnings could show lower PODs and LTs.
• Similar to severe weather, could create polygons
  that are too small causing missed events lower
  lead times and PODs
• Evaluation has shown little change in FFW
  PODs/LTs
• May be due to WarnGen limitations
• FY07 and FY08 preliminary baseline could be used
  to make corrections to GPRA goals if appropriate
• Reduction in Falsely Alarmed Area (FAA) in other
  program measures will indicate improved service

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WarnGen Change Recommendations
Provide capability to

• Access FFMP stream/basin names for all warning
  products (target OB8.2-8.3)
• Use FFMP basins to create the polygon (target
  8.3)
• Issue with undefined basin areas in CWAs
• Issue warnings for noncontiguous areas for same
  event (greatest need in mountainous areas)
• Use the FFMP basin map background as the active
  map background for hydrologic warning polygons.
• Overlay the county map background together with
  the FFMP basin map background.
• Remove basins with right click after drawing
  polygon

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FFW with stream names

• Optional list of river, streams, creeks, and
  basin names in the "Call-To-Action" section that
  follows the fourth bullet.
• Planned for OB 8.2/8.3

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Example Prototype FFW OB 8.2 or 8.3
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Feedback from HPMs will be critical

• Hydrologic aspect of SB warnings is less analyzed
• Orographical impacts to methodology for hydro
  products will provide valuable lessons learned
  for fire weather and winter weather

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Thank you Questions? http//www.weather.gov/sb
warnings/