Process of Issuing Forecasts and Warnings

1
Process of Issuing Forecasts and Warnings

• Forecasting 101

2
NWS Office Locations
Salt Lake City WFO
3
The Datasets We Use
4
Observation Tools - Ground LevelAutomated
Surface Observation System (ASOS)

• Rainfall
• Temperature/Dewpoint
• Weather
• Wind
• Sky Cover
• Freezing Rain
• Thunderstorm
• Visibility
• Pressure

5
Mesonets

• Cooperative projects between researchers at
  Universities, National Weather Service, Land
  Management Agencies, Departments of
  Transportation, and private/commercial firms
• Provides access to current weather observations
• Observing networks are managed by federal, state,
  and local agencies and private firms
• Weather observations of temperature, relative
  humidity, wind speed and direction,
  precipitation, and other weather parameters are
  available at thousands of locations
• Used operationally by National Weather Service
  forecasters and used extensively by researchers

6
Doppler Radar Network
7
Observation Tools Upper-airRadiosonde

• Network of 92 Radiosonde stations in North
  America and the Pacific islands and 10 stations
  in the Caribbean
• 6 feet diameter balloonexpands to 20 feet as it
  rises to over 100,000 feet in the atmosphere
• Radiosonde sensors measure pressure, temperature,
  dewpoint, and wind
• Radio transmitter sends measurements to a ground
  receiver

8
Satellite NetworkComposed of Polar Orbiting and
Geostationary Satellites

• Monitoring and forecasting of weather, water, and
  climate
• Search and rescue applications

GOES M Launch
9
River Gage Networks
10
Marine Buoys
11
Numerical Weather Prediction
12
AWIPS
13
The Forecast ProcessForecasters analyze /
interpret varied datasets to develop a
4-dimensional picture of the atmosphere

• Observations
• Analysis
• Diagnosis
• Prognosis
• Communication

14
What We Produce
15
Convective Warnings
Zion National Park

• Tornado Warnings
• Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
• Flash Flood Warnings

• Salt Lake City Tornado 8/11/99

16
Nonconvective Watches, Warnings, and Advisories

• Heavy Snow, Wind Chill, High Wind, Dense Fog

17
Public Forecast ProductsText, Digital, and
Graphical

• Zone Forecasts
• Tabular State Forecast For Utah
• Area Forecast Discussion
• Flash Flood Potential Rating
• Air Stagnation Index
• Coded Cities Forecast
• Mountain Weather
• Point Forecast Matrices
• Hazardous Weather Outlooks, Short Term Forecasts,
  and Special Weather Statements

18
Fire Weather Forecasts

• Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Utah
• Red Flag Watches and Warnings
• Spot Forecasts
• Trend Forecasts
• Smoke Management Forecasts

19
Aviation Forecasts

• 8 Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)
• ENV, LGU, OGD, SLC, PVU, CDC, BCE, SGU)
• 9 Transcribed Weather Broadcasts (TWEBS), plus a
  Synopsis
• Aviation Weather Warnings (AWWs)

20
River Forecasts and Warnings

• Flood Warnings for 23 Forecast Points
• Areal Flood Warnings

21
Climate

• WFO SLC Climate Products
• Daily Climate Report
• Monthly Climate Summary for Salt Lake City/Utah
• Preliminary Climatology Data (F6)
• Record Event Report
• Storm Data reports

22
Marine
23
Forecast and Warning Dissemination
NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Emergency Alert
System (EAS) Media

Internet Really
Simple Syndication (RSS) feeds
NWR EAS NAWAS
EMWIN Pager - EWARN
State circuits
Amateur Radio
Family of Services NWR EAS
Internet
24
Watch/Warning Decision Making

• Office-based criteria (customer-driven?)
• Time of day or season (impact driven)
• Likelihood of occurrence (forecaster confidence)
• Magnitude of event
• Potential impact
• Local knowledge
• Collaboration

25
Dissemination Considerations

• Product Wording
• Use of uncertainty?
• Potential impact
• Timing (e.g. news casts)
• Single voice (both internal and external)

26
Challenges and Frustrations

• Being wrong
• Lack of verification
• Misinterpretation of forecasts
• Local variations in observed weather information
  not fitting forecast, though forecast as a
  whole was excellent
• Maintaining high level of performance/productivity
  , despite shiftwork environment
• Collaboration (internal and external)
• Different forecasts from different sources
• Software issues
• Time constraints

27
WFO Roles

• Public Service (4-5)
• Forecasters (8-12)
• Service Hydrologist
• Warning Coordination Meteorologist
• Science and Operations Officer
• Technical Support (3-4)
• Admin Assistant
• Meteorologist-in-Charge