Planning Analysis for Bus Rapid Transit Deployment

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• Planning Analysis for Bus Rapid Transit
  Deployment
• For
• Riverside Transit Agency
• By
• Institute of Transportation Studies
• University of California at Berkeley
• In collaboration with
• University of California at Los Angeles
• University of California at Riverside
• Presented at the 11th Annual PATH Program-wide
  Conference, October 24-25, 2002

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Planning Analysis for Bus Rapid Transit
Deployment(in Western Riverside County)

• Task 1
• Evaluate Current Transit Service,and Forecast
  BRT Travel Demand
• Task 2
• Review Worldwide BRT Systems and Practice
• Task 3
• Access the Potential for BRT

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Riverside BRT Mode-choice Model Development

• Two mode-choice models developed
• 1) Work-related trips
• 2) Non-work trips
• Models calibrated using SCAG data and RTA transit
  ridership counts.
• Calibrated models used to evaluate potential BRT
  corridors and to forecast ridership for
  subsequent Tasks.
• Given improvements in transit service (i.e.,
  reductions in transit travel-times), forecast
  increases in ridership.
• Given minimum acceptable levels of BRT ridership,
  determine the land-use densities and/or transit
  service necessary to attract these levels of
  ridership.

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Mode-choice Model(Work-related Trips)
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Mode-choice Model(Non-work Trips)
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Population Densities(SCAG Year 2000)
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Employment Densities(SCAG Year 2000)
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Population Densities(SCAG Year 2025)
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Employment Densities(SCAG Year 2025)
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Forecasted (Net) BRT Farebox Recovery Ratios
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Phase II Work Plan

• Planning Effort focuses on three distinct time
  horizons
• Near term improvements. Strategies and
  improvements that could be introduced in 1 to 2
  years, serving as precursors to later deployment.
• Intermediate-term system. A 4 to 5 year
  deployment providing key elements such as new
  routes, dedicated lanes, intersection treatments,
  and bus-stop improvements of an eventual full
  blown BRT system.
• Longer-term system. Over a 10 to12 year time
  horizon, a BRT would take form in tandem with
  supportive land-use strategies, transportation
  demand management measures, and institutional
  reforms.