Probability

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Probability
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Probability

• In this chapter will be
• Certain, impossible or possible
• Equally likely outcomes
• Using numbers to represent probability
• Calculating probabilities
• The probability of something not happening
• Experimenting with probability

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Probability

• Lesson 1
• Objective
• To use the vocabulary of probability when
  interpreting the results of an experiment

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Probability

• Starter
• Four people are taking part in a charity fun-run
• Arthur, 63, a retired quantity surveyor,
• Mabel, 24, a gym instructor,
• Gary, 12, a school pupil and computer games
  expert,
• Linford Christie, 37, three times world 100m
  champion.

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Probability

• Starter
• Four people are taking part in a charity fun-run
• Arthur, 63, a retired quantity surveyor,
• Mabel, 24, a gym instructor,
• Gary, 12, a school pupil and computer games
  expert,
• Linford Christie, 37, three times world 100m
  champion.
• Who is most likely to win?

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Probability

• Starter
• Four people are taking part in a charity fun-run
• Arthur, 63, a retired quantity surveyor,
• Mabel, 24, a gym instructor,
• Gary, 12, a school pupil and computer games
  expert,
• Linford Christie, 37, three times world 100m
  champion.
• Who is most likely to win?
• Who is likely to come second ?

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Probability

• Starter
• Four people are taking part in a charity fun-run
• Arthur, 63, a retired quantity surveyor,
• Mabel, 24, a gym instructor,
• Gary, 12, a school pupil and computer games
  expert,
• Linford Christie, 37, three times world 100m
  champion.
• Who is most likely to win?
• Who is likely to come second ?
• Who is unlikely to win?

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Probability

• Certain, impossible or possible?

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Probability

• Certain, impossible or possible?
• To show probabilities we can use a likelihood
  scale, like this

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Probability

• Certain, impossible or possible?
• To show probabilities we can use a likelihood
  scale, like this

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (a) The next person to book a holiday will be
  male?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (a) The next person to book a holiday will be
  male?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(a)
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (b) It will snow in Australia on Christmas Day
  this year?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(a)
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (b) It will snow in Australia on Christmas Day
  this year?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(a)
(b)
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (c) A woman will captain the womens rugby team?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(a)
(b)
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (c) A woman will captain the womens rugby team?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(c)
(a)
(b)
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (d) A train will be late tomorrow?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(c)
(a)
(b)
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (d) A train will be late tomorrow?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(c)
(d)
(a)
(b)
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (e) You can learn Japanese in one day?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(c)
(d)
(a)
(b)
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Probability

• Where is the likelihood of
• (e) You can learn Japanese in one day?

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(c)
(d)
(a)
(b)
(e)
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Probability

• Now try

Impossible
Certain
Even chance
Unlikely
Likely
(c)
(d)
(a)
(b)
(e)
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Probability

• Using numbers to represent probabilities

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The Probability Scale

• Draw a line 10cm long and mark off every
  centimetre.

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The Probability Scale

• Draw a line 10cm long and mark off every
  centimetre.
• 0, for impossible, is marked at the left hand end.

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The Probability Scale

• Draw a line 10cm long and mark off every
  centimetre.
• 0, for impossible, is marked at the left hand
  end.
• 0.5, for evens, is marked in the middle.

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The Probability Scale

• Draw a line 10cm long and mark off every
  centimetre.
• 0, for impossible, is marked at the left hand
  end.
• 0.5, for evens, is marked in the middle
• 1, for certain, is marked at the right hand end.

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The Probability Scale

• Certain can also be called 100 and evens, 50.

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The Probability Scale

• Now do some questions

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Probability

• Lesson 1
• Plenary
• Probability uses numbers to represent the chance
  that something will happen

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Probability

• Lesson 1
• Plenary
• Probability uses numbers to represent the chance
  that something will happen
• All probabilities have a value from 0 to 1 (or 0
  to 100)

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Probability

• Lesson 1
• Plenary
• Probability uses numbers to represent the chance
  that something will happen
• All probabilities have a value from 0 to 1 (or 0
  to 100)
• Probabilities can be represented on a scale

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THE END
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Probability

• Lesson 2
• Objective
• To find and record all possible outcomes for
  single events in a systematic way.

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Probability

• Events and Outcomes

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List all the outcomes for the following events
Starter
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List all the outcomes for the following events

• Choosing a person from this group

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List all the outcomes for the following events

• Choosing a fruit

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List all the outcomes for the following events

• Throwing one die

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List all the outcomes for the following events

• Throwing one die
• Throwing both dice

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List all the outcomes for the following events

• Choosing a card from this hand

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Probability

• Now try

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Probability

• Calculating Probabilities

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What is the probability of

• Throwing a 3 with one die?

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What is the probability of

• Throwing a 3 with one die?
• Throwing an odd number?

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What is the probability of

• Throwing a 3 with one die?
• Throwing an odd number?
• Throwing seven with two dice?

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What is the probability of

• Throwing a 3 with one die?
• Throwing an odd number?
• Throwing seven with two dice?
• Throwing fifteen with two dice?

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What is the probability of

• Choosing a face card from this hand?

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What is the probability of

• Choosing a face card from this hand?
• Choosing a red card from this hand?

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What is the probability of

• Choosing a yellow crayon?

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What is the probability of

• Hitting a number in the three times table (a
  multiple of three)?

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What is the probability of

• Choosing a vowel from this sign?

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Probability

• Now try

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Probability

• Probabilities that add to 1

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What is the probability of

• Not throwing a 3 with one die?

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What is the probability of

• Not choosing a face card from this hand?

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What is the probability of

• Not choosing a yellow crayon?

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What is the probability of

• Choosing a consonant (not a vowel) from this sign?

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Probability

• Remember
• The probability of something not happening is
• 1 the probability it will happen

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Probability

• Now try

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Probability

• Experimenting with probability

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Probability

• What experiment shall we do?

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Probability

• Copy the results into your book

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Probability

• Copy the table into your book

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Probability

• Toss a coin ten times and record the results in
  your table.

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Probability

• Toss a coin ten times and record the results in
  your table.

Use these results to calculate the
experimental And theoretical probability of
landing on heads.
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Probability

• Now try some questions

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Probability - Plenary

• In this chapter we have looked at
• Certain, impossible or possible
• Equally likely outcomes
• Using numbers to represent probability
• Calculating probabilities
• The probability of something not happening
• Experimenting with probability

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Probability - Plenary

• In this chapter we have looked at
• Certain, impossible or possible
• Equally likely outcomes
• Using numbers to represent probability
• Calculating probabilities
• The probability of something not happening
• Experimenting with probability

Do you understand all of these topics?
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Probability

• Homework
• Revise all of the new material
• for a test next lesson.
• To do this you should produce at
• least half a page of revision notes.

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Probability

• THE END

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Probability