Probability (A mathematical masterpiece )

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Probability(A mathematical masterpiece )

• By Fynn B. and Ethan K.

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What is Probability?

• Probability is the likelihood of something
  happening.
• For example, if you flipped a coin, there would
  be a 1 in 2 chance that it lands face up or face
  down. This is called an even chance.
• The opposite of this would be an extremely
  probable event, or an extremely improbable event.

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How does Probability Work?

• When calculating probability you take the number
  of ways something can happen, and divide it by
  the number of possible outcomes.
• For example, if you wanted to get heads on a coin
  by flipping it, you would say there is one way
  that can happen, (by getting heads on the coin).
  So, you divide 1 by 2 because there are two
  possible outcomes you get heads, or you get
  tails. So you would get .5, which would mean you
  have a 50 chance to get heads or tails.

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Ideas about Probability

• In probability, there are two main things you
  have to think about. If you took a coin and
  flipped it, the outcome would be completely
  random. But if you flipped, say, 100 coins the
  outcome would be more predictable.

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The Cooliest Activity 1

• What is the probability of answering 10/10 on a
  multiple choice test if you answered each
  question randomly? Each question has 4 answers.
• Hint you have a 1 in 4 chance to get 1 question
  right.

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Answer

• There is a 1 in 1 048 576 chance.
• There are 10 questions so multiply ¼ by 10.
• You then have 1/40 which is 0.025.
• You then put that to the power of ten. Which is
  equal to 1 048 576.
• There is a 1 in 4 chance for each question, and
  the chance of you getting multiple questions
  right in a row goes down for the more questions
  you have. Thats why you must put 1/40 to the
  power of 10.

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Probability, A Kind of Estimating

• Aristotle said, The probable is what usually
  happens. This is one of the key ideas when
  determining probability.
• In probability, there isnt a guaranteed way to
  find out if something is going to happen. It
  could be very likely or very unlikely, but that
  doesnt mean anything for certain. That is,
  unless something is certain or is actually
  impossible, but questions like that are usually
  quite easy to spot.

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Probability in the Real World

• People use probability in the real world all the
  time. Blackjack players use probability to
  predict what card is most likely next.
• Stock brokers must think of the factors that
  affect the market, and what stock is most likely
  to rise.
• And every time any of you guys say things to your
  friends like bet you cant eat an entire bag of
  jellybeans through your nose! You think its
  quite probable that your friend wont be able to
  do that.

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The Cooliest Activity 2

• Each person will flip their coin ten times.
  Record how many times it lands on one side and
  how many times it lands on the other. If it is a
  50/50 chance, why dont you always get the same
  number of each side?

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AMAZIIIIIING FACTS! (About probability)

• Winning the lottery 1 in 13 983 816
• Dying of a flesh eating disease 1 in 1,000,000
• It is 400 more times likely you will die from a
  toilet than a shark
• Odds of getting a hole in one 1 in 5000
• Odds of injury from shaving 1 in 6585
• Odds of drowning in a bathtub 1 in 685,000
• Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot 1 in
  117
• Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try
  1 in 10,000
• Odds of a meteor landing on your house 1 in
  182,138,880,000,000
• Chance of contracting the human version of mad
  cow disease 1 in 40,000,000
• Chance of American man developing cancer in his
  lifetime 1 in 2
• Chance of an American woman developing cancer in
  her lifetime 1 in 3
• Odds of becoming president 1 in 10,000,000
• Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a
  lifetime 1 in 3

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Bibliography

• http//www.funny2.com/odds.htm
• http//www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-
  independent.html
• http//www.funtrivia.com/en/SciTech/Statistics-and
  -Probability-7615.html
• http//www.ehow.com/list_7719506_real-life-probabi
  lity-examples.html
• http//www.stat.berkeley.edu/users/stark/SticiGui/
  Text/probabilityPhilosophy.htm

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The End!

• We know you enjoyed the cooliest presentation you
  have ever received, and hoped you learned some
  stuff about probability, too.