Dale Eck

1
Hurricane Preparedness Conference

• Dale Eck
• The Weather Channel
• Director Global Forecast Center
• deck_at_weather.com
• Hilton Head Island
• May 6, 2008

2
Hurricane Preparedness Conference

• A CONNECTION BETWEEN
  GLOBAL WARMING
  AND WEATHER EVENTS
• Special Thanks
• Stu Ostro
• The Weather Channel

3
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Politics and Debate between Climatologists and
  Meteorologists
• Theory and research behind global warming
• Global Warming and anticipated changes to our
  world and climate
• Interesting weather events in recent years in
  support of expected results
• Including tropical activity

4
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Politics and Debate between Climatologists and
  Meteorologists

5
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Politics and Debate between Climatologists and
  Meteorologists
• Theory and research behind global warming

6
Hurricane Preparedness Conference
7
Climate Models

• Separate out the various forcing mechanisms
• Solar Activity
• El Nino, La Nina
• Volcanoes
• Natural Greenhouse Gases (Water Vapor, CO2,
  Methane, etc)
• Man Made Greenhouse Gases (CO2)

8
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• More Heat in the Atmosphere
• Oil and Water Analogy

9
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Politics and Debate between Climatologists and
  Meteorologists
• Theory and research behind global warming
• Global Warming and anticipated changes to our
  world and climate
• Interesting weather events in recent years in
  support of expected results
• Including tropical activity

10
Jet Stream Patterns

11
500 mb HEIGHT ANOMALIES 1976-2006
Note anomaly maps which follow are based on the
mean for the period being examined 1976-2006
rather than the reanalysis default climo. All
have a consistent scale.
12
500 mb HEIGHT ANOMALIES 1976-2006
1976 Last year of negative global mean
temperature anomalies on the graph above
13
500 mb HEIGHT ANOMALIES 1976-2006
1977-1982 A MIXTURE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES
14
500 mb HEIGHT ANOMALIES 1976-2006
1983-1988 A MIXTURE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES
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500 mb HEIGHT ANOMALIES 1976-2006
1989-1994 A MIXTURE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES
16
500 mb HEIGHT ANOMALIES 1976-2006
1998 FIRST YEAR OF OVERWHELMINGLY POSITIVE
ANOMALIES (also year of exceptional El Niño
followed by strong La Niña)
17
500 mb HEIGHT ANOMALIES 1976-2006
2001-2006 TRENDING MORE POSITIVE LARGE
BULLS-EYES OF 50 dm IN 2005-06
18
Jet Stream Patterns

19
RIDGES RULE!!!
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES 2005-2006
20
RIDGES RULE!!!
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 2005-2006
And its not just around North America
21
RIDGES RULE!!!
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 2006-2007
And its not just around North America
22
TROUGHS CAN STILL BE INTENSE (AND IS THEIR NATURE
CHANGING???)
Earliest recorded snowfall in Charleston and
Savannah
23
THANKSGIVING WEEK 2006 STORM
HIGH TEMPS NOVEMBER 23, 2006
500 mb anomalies 21-24 Nov 2007
24
PRE-CHRISTMAS PRE-NEW YEARS DAY
STORMS
25
PRE-CHRISTMAS PRE-NEW YEARS DAY
STORMS
but not typically in December .
Yes, there are usually temperature contrasts with
mid-latitude systems, but the positive anomalies
dominate the negative ones on these maps
(a recurring theme)
26
WHITE CHRISTMAS IN AUSTRALIA
Other anomalous weather caused by intense troughs

27
SNOW, RECORD COLD, FLOODING IN SOUTH AFRICA
Other anomalous weather caused by intense troughs

28
JAN 2008 SNOW IN IRAN
Snow shock for desert villages A desert region
in Iran has experienced its first snowfall
in living memory, according to local officials.
Islamic Republic News Agency reported on
January 7th that the villages of Karimabad and
Hashemabad in the Loot desert had been left
covered in snow, after what local meteorologists
believe was the area's coldest ever day. -UK
MET Office Adfero Ltd.
29
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Expected Changes
• Sea Level Rise
• Longer and More Intense Heat Waves
• Longer periods between Precipitation events/
  Droughts
• Higher Rainfall/Snowfall from Precipitation
  Events
• And of course warmer daily average temperatures
  and Record Warmth
• Ski Resorts may close due to lack of Snow
• Migration of Seasonal Severe Weather Outbreaks
• Hurricane Activity?

30
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Expected Changes
• Sea Level Rise
• Loss of some beaches
• Bigger effect to coast with coastal events

31
HISTORICAL SEA LEVEL RISE
32
SEA LEVEL FORECAST
33
September Arctic Sea Ice

34
SEPTEMBER SEA ICE EXTENT
35
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Expected Changes
• Sea Level Rise
• Longer and More Intense Heat Waves

36
EUROPE TEMPS
37
EUROPE TEMPS
38
LETS LOOK BACK AT THE
2003 EUROPE HEAT WAVE
9-22 July
2-13 Aug
Am J Public Health. 2004 September 94(9)
15181520. Mortality in 13 French Cities During
the August 2003 Heat Wave Vandentorren, et al.
39
2003 EUROPE HEAT WAVE
500 mb anomalies
9-22 July 2003
2-13 August 2003
9 July 13 August 2003
This type of anomalous ridge is consistent with
what has been taking place since then
40
May 2007
Moscow Hit by Record Heat Wave The five hottest
days in the citys recorded history could be
summed up by a single image an ice-cream truck
stuck in melted asphalt on a Moscow street ...
Muscovites flocked to the citys lakes, ponds,
and canals, not all of them considered safe for
swimming. Fully-clothed people were seen jumping
in fountains a minor transgression by Russian
law but the police were told to ignore them
until the weather cools down. At least 28 people
drowned in Moscow in May, including 17 in the
last week alone Detentions for public
drunkenness spiked as people consumed copius
amounts of beer in attempt to deal with the heat
It feels like Arizona, said tourist Jeffrey
McLain, a construction engineer from Flagstaff,
Ariz. I never thought I would swelter in
Moscow. -Associated Press
41
MAY 29 TEMP ANOMALIES
From NCDC This is the first time in 128 years
that the Russian capital has suffered sustained
30C (86F) or higher temperatures. This heat has
prompted Russia's energy administrator to
restrict the use of non-residential energy for
the first time in summer. (BBC
News/Kommersant)
42
May 29 500mb Anomolies
43
May 2007
Storms kill 23 in Europe, Turkey Heavy storms,
landslides, flash floods and lightning have
killed at least 23 people in Europe and Turkey,
officials said on Monday ... Extreme weather --
including drought, heavy storms, flooding and
flash frost -- have wreaked havoc across Europe
this spring. -Reuters
44
U.S. Heat Wave 2007
45
THIS WAS NO ORDINARY RIDGE
in its intensity, expansiveness, and duration
500mb height anomalies 1-24 August 2007
46
INFLUENCE UPON PRECIPITATION
47
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Expected Changes
• Sea Level Rise
• Longer and More Intense Heat Waves
• Longer periods between Precipitation events/
  Droughts
• Higher Rainfall/Snowfall from Precipitation
  Events

48
ALASKA FLOODING/MUDSLIDES
49
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FLOODING
50
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FLOODING
51
WEATHER HAS GONE HAYWIRE IN GERMANY

• From Kevin Hardekopf Who visited TWC shortly
  prior to this
• Sent Tuesday, June 12, 2007 531 PM
• Subject Weather has gone haywire in Germany
• Hi,
• I just wanted to let you know that the weather is
  crazy in Germany right now.
• We had thunderstorms every day for a week and
  they were quite severe.
• One dropped 1 1/2 inches in less than 3 hours. My
  station registered a max. rain rate of 10
  inches/hour.
• We had lots of flooding and mud slides. Lightning
  struck somewhere nearby, so that we still haven't
  received a signal on our telephone since Thursday.

52
!!!
53
HEADLINE Heat wave causes deaths in Greece,
Romania
A heat wave has claimed two lives in Greece and
killed six more people in Romania as temperatures
soared to 46 degrees Celsius (114.8 Fahrenheit)
in parts of southeast Europe BRITAIN DRENCHED In
Britain, homes were flooded, roads submerged and
rivers rose to dangerously high levels on Monday
as torrential rain and strong winds lashed many
areas. - Reuters 25 June 2007
24-25 June 2007
500mb height anomalies
54
HEADLINE England, Wales see wettest months since
1766
More rains were forecast Thursday for flood-hit
areas where meteorologists said the three months
from May to July were the wettest in England and
Wales since records began in 1766. - Agence
France-Presse 26 July 2007
55
HEADLINE England, Wales see wettest months since
1766
Anomalies for 3-month period
Ovals indicate persistent
positive anomalies
56
THIS PAST FRIDAYMay 2

• National Weather Service - Rapid City, SD
• Vale, SD 14.0"
• Spearfish, SD 30.0
• Sundance, WY 24.0
• Rapid City, SD 11.0
• Beulah, SD 18.0
• Deadwood, SD 28.0
• Harding, SD 48.0
• Lead, SD 32.0

57
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Expected Changes
• Sea Level Rise
• Longer and More Intense Heat Waves
• Longer periods between Precipitation events/
  Droughts
• Higher Rainfall/Snowfall from Precipitation
  Events
• And of course warmer daily average temperatures
  and Record Warmth

58
U.S. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS
Source Guy Walton, TWC NCDC
NOTE Different dataset utilized starting in 2006
59
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Expected Changes
• Sea Level Rise
• Longer and More Intense Heat Waves
• Longer periods between Precipitation events/
  Droughts
• Higher Rainfall/Snowfall from Precipitation
  Events
• And of course warmer daily average temperatures
  and Record Warmth
• Ski Resorts may close due to lack of Snow

60
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Ski Resorts
• Slightly Shorter Season
• Snow will come in bigger doses
• Marginal Resorts may see more bust years

61
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Expected Changes
• Sea Level Rise
• Longer and More Intense Heat Waves
• Longer periods between Precipitation events/
  Droughts
• Higher Rainfall/Snowfall from Precipitation
  Events
• And of course warmer daily average temperatures
  and Record Warmth
• Ski Resorts may close due to lack of Snow
• Migration of Seasonal Severe Weather Outbreaks

62
NOVEMBER TORNADO OUTBREAKS
Mid-November tornado climatology 1980-1999 from
Harold Brooks
63
NOVEMBER 10, 2002
VAN WERT, OH F4 TORNADO
64
NOVEMBER 5-6, 2005
EVANSVILLE, IN TORNADO 25 FATALITIES
65
NOVEMBER 12, 2005
IOWA OUTBREAK
66
NOVEMBER 15, 2005
50 TORNADOES F4 MADISONVILLE, KY
67
NOVEMBER 15-16, 2006
RIEGELWOOD, NC TORNADO 8 FATALITIES
68
NE Severe Outbreak
69
JULY OR DECEMBER ?!?!?
Early July severe convective wind climo
Early December severe convective wind climo
70
January 2008
71
A CONNECTION BETWEEN
GLOBAL WARMING
AND WEATHER EVENTS

• Expected Changes
• Sea Level Rise
• Longer and More Intense Heat Waves
• Longer periods between Precipitation events/
  Droughts
• Higher Rainfall/Snowfall from Precipitation
  Events
• And of course warmer daily average temperatures
  and Record Warmth
• Ski Resorts may close due to lack of Snow
• Migration of Seasonal Severe Weather outbreaks
  Pole Ward
• Hurricane Activity?

72
GLOBAL WARMING AND HURRICANES
SSTs during the peak of the season were lower in
2006, but still above average in most of
the tropical/subtropical Atlantic,
Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, and arguably not
enough lower than 05 to explain the extreme
difference in the outcome of the two seasons
73
(No Transcript)
74
AUGUST 24 OCTOBER 24, 2005
SFC TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
75
AUGUST 24 OCTOBER 24, 2005
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHT ANOMALIES
Now look at the 500mb height
anomalies, which played a role
in steering
76
AUGUST 24 OCTOBER 24, 2005
850-200 MB SHEAR 2005
77
AUGUST 24 OCTOBER 24, 2005
200 MB VECTOR WIND 2005
There was a persistent mean upper-level
anticyclone
78
AUGUST 24 OCTOBER 24, 2005
LOCATION OF MAIN DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION
PHASES OF 2005 TCs
Note that most of this did not occur in the
deep tropical Atlantic
Which coincided with formation and
intensification of many of the 2005 tropical
cyclones including the most significant
landfallers
79
GLOBAL WARMING AND HURRICANES
SSTs during the peak of the season were lower in
2006, but still above average in most of
the tropical/subtropical Atlantic,
Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, and arguably not
enough lower than 05 to explain the extreme
difference in the outcome of the two seasons
80
(No Transcript)
81
SEPTEMBER 2006
IT WAS CHILLY IN THE U.S.!
82
SEPTEMBER 2006
WELL, YES IT IS
83
SEPTEMBER 2006
AND LOOK AT WHAT WAS GOING ON ALOFT!
84
SEPTEMBER 2006
AND LOOK AT WHAT WAS GOING ON ALOFT!
85
SEPTEMBER 2006
AND NOW LOOK AT THE CONTEXT!
A low height anomaly seemingly trapped by a
high-latitude ridge
86
2006 WASNT QUIET IN ALL BASINS

An exceptional amount of landfalls and impacts
even by Philippines standards
TYPHOON SAOMI Strongest China landfall on record
HURRICANE IOKE First CPAC Cat 5 on
record
87
WHAT ABOUT 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
GLOBAL WARMINGS INFLUENCE UPON THE ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON 2005 Enhancement? 2006
Suppression? 2007 A combo?
88
(No Transcript)
89
ATLANTIC/GULF/CARIBBEAN

Source CIMSS
90
2007s U.S. / NEAR-U.S. SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONES
Formation dates

500 mb anomalies with same
geographical and anomaly scale
SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL STORM
EXTRATROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL STORM
GABRIELLE
ANDREA
21 September
7 September
9 May
JUST COINCIDENCE that we had so many in/near U.S.
this season?
91
BEACH EROSION
Composite 500mb height anomaly during
2007s significant erosion events
on the southeast U.S. coast
Much has been said about the potential effects
from sea level rise in the long term but in the
meantime, this pattern led to repeated bouts
of moderate to severe coastal erosion
Jim Cantore Singer Island, FL November 1, 2007
92
2007 AN ODD SEASON
A COUPLE OF EXTREME
HURRICANES, ONE OF THEM LONG-LIVED

THE OTHER
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES MAINLY WEAK AND
VERY SHORT-LIVED
93
THE 2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
Some notable individual events in the Northern
Hemisphere basins, yet
overall unusually quiet
Northern Hemisphere hurricane days
Lowest since 1977 and 3rd lowest since 1958
Ryan N. Maue
94
PERCEPTION OR REALITY?

• Increased frequency and magnitude of temperature
  extremes on the high side decreased (but
  still there) on the low side
• Not necessarily more or stronger tornadoes, but
  effects upon their distribution (geographically
  and time of year)
• Increased precipitation extremes on the high
  side effects upon drought in U.S.
  unclear
• Variable effects upon tropical cyclones depending
  on the year and the basin, but an increased
  probability of extremes (in
  either direction) (Increased beach erosion)
• Increased probability of intense and/or anomalous
  extratropical cyclones
• Update long-term trend remains unclear, but
  its plausible that there was an influence upon
  the exceptional drought in the southeast U.S.

95
PERCEPTION OR REALITY? 2

• General circulation changes - forced by
  higher heights, esp. in
  mid-high latitudes
• Increasing strength/size/duration of ridges
• Intense troughs/cutoffs in response
• Tendency for blocking/stationary and/or recurrent
  patterns
• Increasing tendency for extreme heat/warmth
• Paradoxical cold anomalies (although heat overall
  is winning)
• Nonlinear changes to precipitation / water cycle
• Mid-high latitude general circulation changes
  a wild card for
  tropical cyclones
  (intensity, frequency, tracks,
  seasonality)
• THERE HAVE ALWAYS BEEN EXTREMES,
  BUT THEIR NATURE IS
  CHANGING

96
IMPLICATIONS?

• FOR SCIENTISTS AND POLICYMAKERS
• Increased research focus on the connection(s)
  between global warming and weather
  weather is where climate hits the road

97
IMPLICATIONS?

• FOR SCIENTISTS AND POLICYMAKERS
• Increased focus on adaptation

We still need to wrestle with the difficult
issues involved in mitigation but regardless,
adaptation to the changing climate is going to be
necessary
and in general vulnerability to natural disasters
has increased
98
Hurricane Preparedness Conference

• Dale Eck
• The Weather Channel
• Director Global Forecast Center
• deck_at_weather.com
• Hilton Head Island
• May 6, 2008