AOA Annual Conference

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AOA Annual Conference Exhibition 2007Airports
Twenty Twenty VisionAirports and Airlines

• 12th 14th November 2007
• Laurie N. Price
• Director of Aviation Strategy, Mott MacDonald

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Agenda

• Airports and Airlines relationship
• Air Travel Growth in the UK
• Congestion Planning / Policy / Market
  Distortion
• Needs of UK plc.
• The Future
• Environment
• Ownership

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Issues Facing Industry

• Security
• Fuel Prices
• Environmental impact
• Taxation
• Capacity Runway/ATC
• Slots Allocation/Availability
• Pricing
• Demand Maturity
• (De) Regulation

• EC / US Open Skies
• Consolidation
• Financial performance
• Investment
• Returns
• Market distortions Chapter 11
• GATT
• Labour and training
• Distribution internet
• Frequency and capacity aircraft size

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Airports

• Understanding the relationship
• Who are Airports customers?
• Airlines
• Shippers
• Passengers
• the community
• All of the above !
• Airports Infrastructure Terminal Runway Apron

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and Airlines

• Airlines Network Services Frequency
• The balance commercial return but needs of
  economy and society
• But both airports and airlines are commercially
  focussed

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Economic strength and propensity to fly
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Total Terminal Passengers at UK Airports 1972
2006
2003 Iraq War / SARS
1995 Introduction of Low-Cost Airlines
1985/86 Libya/Chernobyl
1983 Europe Deregulation
1988 Lockerbie
2001 Terrorist Attacks
1979 US Deregulation
1974 Fuel Crisis
1991 Gulf War
1982 Falklands War
1977 Bermuda II
1981 Fuel Crisis Recession
Source CAA Airport Statistics
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Terminal Passengers at UK Airports Annual
Growth Rates
1985/86 Libya/Chernobyl
1983 Europe Deregulation
1995 Introduction of Low-Cost Airlines
1988 Lockerbie
2003 Iraq War / SARS
2001 Terrorist Attacks
1979 US Deregulation
1977 Bermuda II
1982 Falklands War
1981 Fuel Crisis Recession
1991 Gulf War
1974 Fuel Crisis
Source CAA Airport Statistics
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UK Actual and DfT Forecast of UK Terminal
Passengers to 2030
3.45 p.a.
3.20 p.a.
6.15 p.a.
5.65 p.a.
7.20 p.a.
3.90 p.a.
All previous forecasts have been exceeded
Source CAA DfT Forecast for RASCO/SERAS
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Airport Congestion in Europe

• EC Study found
• Air traffic forecast to grow by 2.3 times between
  2003 and 2025
• More than 60 EC airports will be congested by
  2025
• Top 20 saturated for 10 hours a day
• Planned capacity increases will not meet forecast
  demand
• Situation in the UK is already critical in the
  South East of England

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Guess where
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Greenhouse Gas Emission Sources
Source The Stern Review 2006
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Low cost airline share of air passenger traffic
Source ELFAA, CAA AEA
Source Airline Business

• LCCs now account for 16 of all scheduled
  departures worldwide and 19 of all available
  seats
• 90 LCCs in Europe serving 1220 routes and 500
  cities

Source OAG, ELFAA
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The perfect airport
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Terminal Design
As one renowned airline might see it!
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As airport designers, Civil Engineers and
architects interpret it!
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Going Forward matters to be addressed

• Capacity
• Environment
• Network
• Funding
• Industry relationship
• Reasserting role and contribution of the air
  transport sector to Government and society

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Questions / Discussion

• Thank you