What is Tolerable

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What is Tolerable
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Cost of Claims 2006/2007

• Total cash payments - 2006/2007 - 71.95 million.
  
• Receipts of 5.85 million recovered.
• Highest claim settled - 3.64 million.
• Total number of claims lodged - 4873.
• 889 Service claims settled - total cost of 32.9
  million.

Getting the Decision Wrong on Tolerability can be
costly both in human harm and financial cost
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TOP 10 CLAIMS - SERVICE PERSONNEL - 2006/07

• TYPE OF INJURY LOSS COMPENSATION
• Helicopter crash spinal injuries 3.64M
• Vehicle overturned multiple injuries 2.31M
• Weapon discharge amputation 1.06M
• RTA head injuries 1.02M
• RTA death during driver training 814K
• RTA multiple injuries 748K
• Tank detonated artillery shell multiple
  injuries 683K
• Hand crushed in machine 661K
• Negligent discharge death 577K
• Fall on mountain multiple injuries 538K

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The Meaning of Life

• Everyday, consciously unconsciously, we view
  hazards and assess risk

• We are surrounded by hazards its inescapable

Annual risk of death 2001 Entire population
1 in 97 Men aged 65-74 1 in 36 Women aged
65-74 1 in 51 Men aged 35-44 1 in 637 Women
aged 35-44 1 in 988 Boys aged 5-14 1 in 6 907
Girls aged 5-14 1 in 8 696
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Perception of Risk

• How we perceive impacts how we react
• Influenced highly by risk of physical harm . but
  also by social, ethical cultural considerations
• Perversely - As safety has improved, tolerance to
  harm has reduced at a greater pace

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Social Impact on Risk
2940 Road Deaths in 2007/2008 35 Died in Clapham
Rail Accident

• Shifting sands societal preferences, values
  expectations
• Growing perception that risks imposed must be
  justified
• Increasing reliance on trusted regulators
• Calls for openness in making decisions

What Impact an unpopular war?
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What are Hazards Risks?

• What are Hazards Risks
• Hazard Potential for Harm arising from the
  intrinsic property of something to cause
  detriment
• Risk Chance that someone or something that is
  valued will be adversely affected by a hazard
• Regina v Science Museum 1993 Risk conveys the
  possibility of danger
• Risk is only taken because of an expected
  probable benefit
• ie a positive consequence

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Harm

• Harm ? Consequence

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Risk

• Risk ? Likelihood

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Risk Estimation

• Precautionary Principle
• Good reason that serious harm might occur
• Uncertain science
• Must adopt mitigation (ie vie on side of safety)

• Ensure estimated as end effect
• Impact within System often involves risk
  aggregation
• Typical Techniques
• System Accident Models
• Eg Aircraft Loss Model based on Fault Tree
  Analysis
• Failure Effects Mode Criticality Analysis
  (FEMCA)
• Judgement
• Hazard Analysis Panels

UN Conference on Environment Development .wher
e there are threats of serious or irreversible
environmental damage, lack of scientific
certainty shall not be used as an excuse for
postponing cost effective measures to prevent
degradation
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Risk

• Risk ? Likelihood

• Quantitative Analysis
• Aircraft Loss Models
• Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis
  (FMECA)
• But..
• System-of-Systems
• Judgement
• Risk Panels

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Canadian Probability Definitions
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Common Understanding of Risk
Accident Probability
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Risk Classification

• How would you classify this new US Weapon System?

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Duty Holder

• Health Safety at Work Act
• Corporate Manslaughter Corporate Homicide Act

Section 37 (1) - The person to be appointed as
duty holder, should at the very least be of the
equivalent position of director, manager or
other similar officer
Section 3 - The duty holder can exercise control
over both the conditions of work and where the
activity takes place
Section 1(3) - Provides that an organisation is
guilty of an offence . only if the way in which
its activities are managed or organised by its
senior management is a substantial element in the
breach .
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Duty Holder Responsibility

• Duty Holders are to ensure Health Safety
• So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable (SFAIRP)
• And to reduce risk to
• As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP)
• And in some cases to
• As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA)
• Some other EU Directive have differing conditions
• Core is Reasonably Practicable
• Based on Judgement Goals and not Rules
  Prescription

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ALARP

• Edwards v National Coal Board Appeal Court
  1949
• in every case, it is the risk that has to be
  weighed against the measures necessary to
  eliminate the risk. The greater the risk, the
  less will be the weight given to the factor of
  cost
• Concept of
• Balancing risk against sacrifice (money, time
  trouble)
• Assumption to implement unless sacrifice grossly
  disproportionate to benefits gained

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ALARP
Intolerable Region
Intolerable Boundary
Region of Gross Disproportionality
Tolerable Region
Broadly Acceptable Boundary
Broadly Acceptable Region
ALARP
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ALARP Risk Classification
Intolerable
Tolerable
Broadly Acceptable
ALARP
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Temporal Nature of ALARP
Risk
Intolerable Boundary
Time
Broadly Acceptable Boundary
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ALARP Decisions When is Enough, Enough?

• Duty Holder must decide based upon
• First Principles
• High hazard environments (aerospace)
• Quantitatively Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)
• Qualitatively by applying professional
  judgement
• Good Practice
• Comparison with other like organisations EASA,
  USAF
• Codes of Practice or Acceptable Means of
  Compliance
• JSPs Defence Standards
• Deviations must be justified
• 2 Waivers OLM, MAOS, DAOS, RCM

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What is Tolerable
Risk
Intolerable Boundary
Hazard
Risk v Sacrifice
Time
Broadly Acceptable Boundary
S
Individual Risk Severity of Accident x
Likelihood x Exposure
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Cost Benefit Analysis

• Detriment Calculating the Cost of the Risk
• Detriment (P x E x VH x D) (P x E x VA)

P Probability of Accident/Unit Duration or
Trigger Event E Exposure to that Risk Number
of Occurrences Through Life D Gross
Disproportionality Factor VH Value of 1
Occurrence in Human Terms VA Value of 1
Occurrence in Non-Human Terms (Equipment,
Environment.)
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Cost Benefit Analysis

• Detriment Calculating the Cost of the Risk
• Detriment (P x E x VH x D) (P x E x VA)

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Human Cost

• Human cost is a sensitive subject But Treasury
  Policy
• Used DfT, NICE ..
• Value of Prevented Fatality (VpF)
• 1st Party - 4M
• 2nd 3rd Parties - 1.25M
• Cost of Injury (MoD Claims 2006/2007)
• Average Claim - 37 000
• VH (Value of 1 Occurrence in Human Terms)
• VpF (and/or Cost of Injury) (1st, 2nd 3rd
  Parties)
• x Number or People Effected

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Gross Disproportionality - Calibrating the
Boundaries Civil Sector
1st Party
2nd Party
3rd Party
Multi-Engine
11000
Annual Risk of Death (ROD)
Training
FJ
Helos
Intolerable
11000
11000
110000
1230
1430
1640
Intolerable Boundary
North Sea Fishing 11000 Agriculture 1 13
000 Mining 114 500 Construction 1 21 500
Tolerable
Broadly Acceptable Boundary
110000
1105
1106
Broadly Acceptable
ALARP
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Gross Disproportionality - Calibrating the
Boundaries Military Aviation
1st Party
Targets derived from analysis of deaths from 1990
2000 Report by Adelard
2nd Party
3rd Party
Multi-Engine
Training
FJ
Helos
Are these right?
Intolerable
11000
11000
110000
1230
1430
1640
Intolerable Boundary
Tolerable
Broadly Acceptable Boundary
110000
1105
1106
Broadly Acceptable
2010 - 1770 New Aircraft - 11000 2050 - 11000
ALARP
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Gross Disproportionality Factor
Intolerable Boundary
Initial Hazard
9
Final Hazard
7
Broadly Acceptable Boundary
D (9 7) 2
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Risk v Benefit

• Detriment gt Cost of Mitigation Legally obliged
  to do so
• Detriment lt Cost of Mitigation Risk is Tolerable

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Duty Holder

• Health Safety at Work Act
• Corporate Manslaughter Corporate Homicide Act

Section 37 (1) - The person to be appointed as
duty holder, should at the very least be of the
equivalent position of director, manager or
other similar officer
Section 3 - The duty holder can exercise control
over both the conditions of work and where the
activity takes place
Section 1(3) - Provides that an organisation is
guilty of an offence . only if the way in which
its activities are managed or organised by its
senior management is a substantial element in the
breach .
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Duty Holders
People Duty Holder
Materiel Services Duty Holder
CMCHA
Sect 6 HSWA
Sect 2 HSWA
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Duty Holders Risk Transfer
People Duty Holder
Accident Probability
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Questions?