Duurzame Technologie eist sturing

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Duurzame Technologie eist sturing

• Lunchlezing Netwerk DO
• 11 dec 2002
• Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt

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Duurzame Technologie eist sturing

• Inleiding Duurzame Ontwikkeling
• Het programma DTO
• Het SusHouse project
• Transities en transitiemanagement
• Maatschappelijke sturing?

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Introducing myself

• Ph.D. in physical Chemistry (1976)
• (Senior) Lecturer in Chemistry and Society,
  Groningen University (1976-90)
• Researcher in technological innovation studies
• Policy maker, Dutch Ministry of the Environment
  (1990-92)
• Dept. Director, Sustainable Technological
  Development Programme (1993-97)
• Chair of Technology Assessment, Delft University
  of Technology TBM 1991-1999 Industrial Design
  (1999-2002)

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1. Sustainable Development

• Sustainable Development is development that meets
  the needs of the present generation without
  compromising the ability of future generations to
  meet their own needs
• (Brundtland, 1987)

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Sustainable development (2)

• Three aspects are central in this definition
• Fulfillment of (basic) needs
• Equity between North and South
• Solidarity with future generations

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Introduction

• The Dutch NEPP-4 (2001) calls for transitions,
  system innovations, in order to address
  persistent environmental problems.
• Transitions are
• gradual continuous processes of societal changes
  in which society changes structurally
• They imply coordinated developments in culture,
  technology, economics, ecology, institutions,
  behavior, worldviews

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Strategies for sustainable development

• Technological strategies the Dutch Program
  Sustainable Technological Development
  (1993-1997)
• Socio-technical strategies The EU project
  Strategies towards the Sustainable Household
  (1998-2000)
• System strategies The new Dutch National
  Environmental Policy Plan (2001-)

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STD Program factor 20

• Factor 20 was defined by the following equation
• Year EB M Pr WP
• 2000 1 1 x 1 x 1
• 2050 ½ 1/20 x 5 x 2
• EB Environmental Burden
• M Metabolism environmental burden per unit of
  need
  fulfillment
• Pr Level of production and consumption
• WP World Population

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Factor 20 and back-casting

• Back-casting is looking back from a desired or
  unavoidable future towards the present
• 2050 desired
• -a sustainable society
• -equity between North and South
• -reduction of total environmental burden
• 2050 unavoidable
• -population growth

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2. The Dutch STD Program

• In the Dutch Sustainable Technological
  Development Program (STD, 1993-97), it was
  postulated that in a sustainable society needs
  will have to be fulfilled by a factor 20 less
  environmental burden per unit of need
  fulfillment.
• Needs are defined as nutrition, water, shelter,
  transportation, recreation, etc.

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Time horizons
factor
20
System innovation transitions
Technological innovation from products to
services
End of pipe technologies Good house keeping
ecodesign
1
2000
2050
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STD Program Aims

• The aims of the STD Program were (Weaver et al,
  2000)
• Integrate sustainability policy and technology
  policy
• Develop, demonstrate, and evaluate methodologies
  for influencing innovation processes in the
  direction of sustainable technologies
• Initiate new technological trajectories related
  to key areas of need

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STD Program Aims (2)

• Engage and involve stakeholders in innovation
  processes
• Demonstrate that sustainable technologies are
  possible, in principle, if research, development,
  and innovation processes are appropriately
  oriented and resourced
• Disseminate and communicate programme results,
  nationally and internationally, among innovators,
  policy makers, opinion leaders, and partners in
  implementing sustainability

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STD Illustrative Processes

• Nutrition
• Novel Protein Foods
• Multifunctional land use
• Mobility
• Urban underground freight transport
• Mobile hydrogen fuel cell
• Buildings and urban space
• Sustainble public housing
• Sustainble office space
• Services provided by water municipal water chain
• Services provided by materials/chemicals

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STD Methodology

• Strategic Problem Orientation
• Development Future Vision
• Back-casting
• Explore solution options
• Selection and generate action plan
• Set up cooperative agreements define roles
• Implementation research agenda

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3. STD-Methodologie

• Vision Development

Strategic problem orientation
Back-casting
Future vision
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Back-casting (1)

• Back-casting is reasoning backwards from a
  sustainable and desirable future vision towards
  the present (direct or in steps)
• And in the present developing activities aimed at
  realization of that future vision

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Back-casting
factor
20
Future vision
1.
Creativity workshop
3.
2.
Short-term project
Back-casting Action planning
1
2000
2050
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Back-casting (2) elements

• Technological innovations (leap-frogs?)
• Cultural breaches of trend
• Mobilization of stakeholders (interested and
  affected)
• Short-term barriers
• Long term trends

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Back-casting (3)

• Look back from a desired future
• Define intermediate goals under way
• Develop Socio-Technical Experiments
• Evaluate social and organizational learning
• Develop intervention policies

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Culture, Structure, and Technology

• In STD need fulfillment is central
• Technological innovations alone cannot reach
  factor 20
• Cultural changes are necessary (how are our needs
  constituted)
• Structural changes are necessary economics,
  infrastructure, knowledge infrastructure,

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Interaction between technology, culture, and
structure
structure
culture
Which?
How to organize?
Social needs
By what means?
technology
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Outcomes of STD

• A number of projects some of them are still
  going on (Multiple Sustainable Land Use
  Sustainable Transportation Novel Protein foods
  Sustainable Chemistry)
• A book
• A Methodology
• The SusHouse project
• A new policy approach

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4. The EU Sustainable Household project

• The present households consume a lot of energy,
  water, detergents, fuels for transportation,
  consumption goods, and are quickly becoming the
  main source of resource depletion, environmental
  solution, loss of biodiversity, climate change,
  etc
• STD learned technological solutions alone are
  not enough socio-cultural changes are also needed

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Aim of the SusHouse project

• The aim of the project is to develop and evaluate
  strategies for transitions towards sustainable
  households
• Three household functions are selected as cases
  nutrition, shelter, and clothing care

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Why the Household?

• Households pollute a lot
• -energy electricity, heating, cooling
• -water consumption
• -Waste generation
• In households consumer demand is constructed
• Consumers form an untamed problem for policy
  makers

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Definition of the household

• The household is the smallest economic unit in
  society
• Persons living in a household share certain
  functions like
• Living space
• Shopping
• Cooking
• Eating
• Washing clothes
• Leisure time
• holidays

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Methodology

• Develop future visions in creativity workshops
  with stakeholders
• Derive Design Orienting Scenarios (DOSs) from
  future visions
• Environmental, economic assessments, and consumer
  acceptance research of DOSs and proposals
• Back-casting and implementation workshops with
  stakeholders

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INSTITUTIONS
RESEARCH TEAM
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RESEARCH TEAMS
NETHERLANDS
UK
GERMANY
ITALY
HUNGARY
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Internal organization9 country projects
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ResultsIntegrated vision
Collective
Come together Neighborhood food center Collective
Clothing Care
CARE OUTSOURCING
Clothing care outsourcing Comfort management
services Neighborhood food center
CARE SOCIALISING
Enabling
Relieving
Local and green My clothes, my eternal
friends Natural living
EASY CARE
High-tech rural garden Wearables Edumation Soft
clothing care
High-tech eating Virtual shopping Easy clothing
Care Active House
HIGH CARE
SOFT CARE
Individual
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ResultsIntegrated vision
Collective
Come together Neighborhood food center Collective
Clothing Care
CARE OUTSOURCING
Clothing care outsourcing Comfort management
services Neighborhood food center
CARE SOCIALISING
Enabling
Relieving
Local and green My clothes, my eternal
friends Natural living
EASY CARE
High-tech rural garden Wearables Edumation Soft
clothing care
High-tech eating Virtual shopping Easy clothing
Care Active House
HIGH CARE
SOFT CARE
Individual
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Care Outsourcing

• Clothing Care Outsourcing (CC)
• Comfort management service (Sh)
• Neighborhood food center (SCE, Nl)
• Service scenario
• Households without appliances
• Environmental gain by better management

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OUTSOURCING CARE
The scenario is characterised by a certain
deconstruction of the household as it is
traditionally thought as a place for the
fulfilment of domestic functions. The household
is emptied of domestic appliances and is either,
the point of arrival of incoming services
delivered to the home or, a central life-base
from which the household members reach external
services installed in the neighbourhood. A range
of services provides the household members with
ready-to-consume solutions, such as warmth and
light prepared food clean clotheslike a hotel.
In a less luxurious/cocoon-like solution, local
service points propose the same solutions at a
short distance from the household. The
environmental goals of the scenario refer to
bigger scales than the level of the single
household would allow. Both management and
processes of the various functions are
externalised to qualified, bigger structures such
as restaurants or clothing care centre which are
more likely to implement and control sustainable
technology. Even household heating and lighting
systems are managed and upgraded by external
comfort management services to guarantee the
eco-efficiency.
HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO
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Care Socializing

• Come together (Sh, Ge)
• Neighborhood food center (SCE, Nl)
• Collective Clothing Care (CC)
• Community interaction
• Sharing resources, products, and services
• Scale economies possible
• Inversion of individualistic values

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CARE SOCIALISING

• The "care socialising DOSs are based on a
  certain level of community life, of collective
  resources, of sharing of products and services.
• The household opens to different levels of
  collective spaces dedicated to the fulfilment of
  certain domestic functions together with other
  households from the neighbourhood, (e.g. cooking
  and eating together, helping each other taking
  care and repairing clothes).
• Other collective places are also dedicated to
  collective forms of work, (e.g. participation in
  a clothing care centre providing the complement
  of human work necessary to the process in
  exchange to the access to the service for the
  cleaning of the personal clothes).
• The values are focussed on the community
  favouring typical collective notions such as
• -"the efficiency of the group", (e.g.
  sharing/exchanging clothes allow intensification
  of use, less waste and cutting costs)
• - the "feeling of belonging to a community",
  (e.g. sharing dinning table with neighbour
  exchanging clothesall with the symbolic value
  those actions involve) and,
• - the "personal investment in the building and
  management of common resources", (e.g. "community
  work" complementary to "paid work" as source of
  structure and identity for individuals).

HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO
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High Care

• Local and Green (SCE)
• My clothes, my eternal friends (CC, Nl, Ge)
• Natural living (Sh, UK)
• Lifestyle close to nature
• Reduced consumption
• Local accessible natural resources

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HIGH-CARE
On one hand the "high-care" scenario is based on
a lifestyle in line with natural models. Daily
rhythms adapt to the seasonal variations of
natural daylight. Diet is based on food available
in the householders region. Clothing is
developed and cared for maximum durability. On
the other hand, the DOSs require commitment from
the household members in terms of - personal
contribution to domestic tasks, (e.g. preparation
of food from basic ingredients or repairing and
cleaning of clothes) and, - general
eco-management of the household (e.g. adaptation
of the isolation system of the house according to
seasonal climate changes or management of the
energy production systems). In environmental
terms, the "high-care" scenario is based above
all on the drastic reduction of the household
members expectations considering the
possibilities and limits of the local natural
resources. Consumption tends to be cut down (e.g.
the wardrobe is restricted to a few pieces of
clothes food is limited to the varieties and
species available in the region consumption of
energy for heating and lighting is limited to the
possibilities of local production). Products and
equipment are used intensively (e.g.
architectural components allow reconfiguration of
the living space according to seasonal climate
changes clothes are repaired and up-graded in
order to optimise their life-time). The various
DOSs developed for each Functions do not show a
strategy of implementation of the household
"high-care" scenario but the apparent austerity
642
(WASHING SERVICE INCL.)
HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO
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Soft Care

• Soft Clothing Care (CC,It)
• Wearables (Sh, It)
• Edumation (Sh, Ge)
• High Tech Rural Garden SCE, Hu)
• High involvement of household members
• Highly sophisticated technical system

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SOFT CARE
A fifth cluster, less focalised and less rich in
DOSs than the four former ones, describes a
household DOS characterised both by a high
attention/implication of the household members in
the fulfilment of the domestic tasks and a highly
sophisticated system assisting them in these
tasks. Clothing care is fulfilled as a succession
of small interventions over the week, (e.g.
ventilation of bad smell soft low temperature
cleaning use of local stain remover), through a
full range of dedicated appliances. Part of the
food comes from local production in a high-tech
greenhouse proposed as an evolution of the house
garden. Short cuts in the domestic heating is
compensated by sophisticated heating clothes. As
already stated the 'soft care" function DOSs
provide characteristic examples but are not
exclusive of this cluster and thus, the
description of this vision will be less complete
than the other ones. In environmental terms,
the aim of the "soft care" DOSs are to create a
synergy/cross-fertilisation between on one hand,
a lifestyle more aware and careful for the
environment and on the other hand, the
implementation of a technical infrastructure
maximising the sustainability of the household.
The energy control system allow the among of
energy used to be visualised at any moment by
each of the separated appliances of the household
providing a feed-back mechanism on the household
members patterns and raising awareness on
activities with higher environmental impacts. The
daily care of clothes is done with
HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO
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Easy Care

• High Tech Eating/ Robo kitchen/ intelligent
  cooking and storing (SCE)
• Virtual shopping (SCE, UK)
• Easy Clothing Care (CC, It)
• Active House (Sh, Ge)
• High tech equipment automatic
• Little involvement by household members
• Eco-efficient equipment and technology

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EASY CARE
The "easy-care" household is characterised by
high-tech equipment helping users in their daily
life. The various tasks are fulfilled
automatically or with very low personal
involvement. Shopping is conducted virtually and
delivered to the household. Automatic cookers
quickly prepare food in the kitchen. Clothes have
microchip labels which automatically provide
cleaning information to clothing washing
equipment. The home is fully equipped with
intelligent appliances able to regulate the
heating, control the lighting and optimise the
fulfilment of the various household
functions. Behind this easy/automated domestic
space, the environmental goal is to relate as
much as possible the eco-efficient equipment and
products to push the household members
life-styles towards sustainability through
rationalisation and optimisation of their
behaviours. Intelligent kitchen storage equipment
suggests the best methods to cook the available
ingredients with the least environmental impact.
A dirt detector indicates automatically when it
is time to clean each piece of clothing. An
automatic energy control system works to match
the limited amount of energy allocated to each
household with the various requirements of the
household members.
TOO BAD FOR THE WASHING !
HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO
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Key success factors

• 1. Good stakeholder management
• Involve stakeholders before, during, and after
  workshops
• Involve them in assessment activities
• Create a follow-up perspective
• Clear long term sustainability goals
• Important that government act as goal-setter
• Goals should be shared by stakeholders

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Transitions

• Persistent environmental problems require
  transitions
• transitions are social transformation processes
• they involve simultaneous changes in technology,
  economy, socio-cultural systems, and institutions
• government should develop transition management

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Transitions CO2 neutral energy
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Transition management characteristics

• Long term thinking
• multi-domain and multi-actor
• steering on learning processes
• system innovation
• keep many options open

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Transition management
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kaders voor duurzaamheid

• Goede bereikbaarheidvan economische en sociale
  bestemmingen
• Veiligvoor mensen in en om het
  mobiliteitssysteem
• Near-zero emissieszonder negatieve effecten voor
  mens en milieu
• Ruimtelijke kwaliteitgeen groter ruimtebeslag
  van mobiliteit
• Uitstekende leefomgevingruimte in woonwijken
  voor de bewoners, m.n. kinderen.
• Zekerheid van energievoorziening

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Een cyclische aanpak van transitie, bezien vanuit
de overheid
Kader Bereikbaar
Kader .
Toekomstschets 1
Discussie
Kader Near Zero Emission
Toekomstschets 2
Toekomstschets 3
Duurzaamheidtoets schetsen binnen kaders ?
Toekomstschets 4
Toekomstschets 5
Signaal vanuit de overheid
Robuust KT en LT beleid
Duurzame Toekomstschets 2
Back-casting
Confrontatie met KT beleid
Beleidsstrategie A
Synthese beleids-strategieën
Duurzame Toekomstschets 3
Beleidsstrategie B
Robuuste LT beleidsstrategie
Duurzame Toekomstschets 4
Beleidsstrategie C
2002 2010
2020 2030
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Transitie koppelen aan experimenten en
initiatieven

• Naar duurzame energieketensAandrijftechnologieën,
  brandstoffen en primaire energiebronnen
• Van modaliteitaanbod naar mobiliteitsdienstendeur
  -tot-deur diensten, koppeling van modaliteiten
• Intelligente voertuigen op het hoofdwegennetVan
  slimme cruise control tot automatische
  voertuiggeleiding
• Ruimtebeslag in de lokale omgevingParkeren op
  afstand, Jolly Jumper, Smart-torens

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Besluitvormingsproces voor Transitie Duurzame
Mobiliteit
besluitvorming
consultatieronde
GO /NO GO
Minister
Nov 2002.
2003.
Mei-Aug 2002
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Conclusies Maatschappelijke sturing?

• Sturing interactief en bottom-up (netwerksturing)
• Overheid geeft richting door lange termijn doelen
  en door facilitering
• Overheid treedt op als trustee voor duurzaamheid
  en toekomstige generaties
• Overheid moet wel zichzelf hervormen
• Internationale aanpak noodzakelijk

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Kritische kanttekeningen

• Kan de overheid haar rol als regulator en als
  transitiemanager scheiden?
• Wat weten we eigenlijk van transities en van
  stuurbaarheid van technologische ontwikkelingen?
• Willen maatschappelijke actoren (bedrijfsleven,
  consumenten, overheden) uiteindelijk korte
  termijnbelangen laten prevaleren?
• Hoe geloofwaardig is de overheid op langere
  termijn?

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Verder onderzoek

• In het kader van ICES-KIS-3 is een netwerk
  opgericht Kennisnetwerk Systeeminnovaties.
• Dit kennisnetwerk bereidt momenteel een voorstel
  voor
• In dit voorstel wordt o.m. dieper ingegaan op
  governance voor transitieprocessen

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Bounded Socio-Technical Experiments (BSTE)

• In a recent paper, Halina Brown et al. coined the
  term BSTE
• A BSTE is ,an attempt to introduce a new
  technology on a scale bounded in space and time
• carried out by a coalition of actors
• It is recognizable as an experiment
• It encompasses learning by doing, doing by
  learning, trying out new strategies, and
  continuous course correction
• .It is driven by a long-term vision

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Questions?

• ..Thank you for your attention
• Weaver et al (2000) Sustainable Technology
  Development (Greenleaf Publishing Ltd)
• www.sushouse.tudelft.nl
• ph.j.vergragt_at_io.tudelft.nl
• philipv_at_tiscali.nl