Community Unit School District 95

1
School Enrollment Projections Series

• Community Unit School District 95

Prepared by Sarah Kemp Associate
Researcher UW-Madison Phone (608)
265-6189 E-mail kemp_at_wisc.edu
2
APL Enrollment Projections Program

• The APL has conducted an enrollment projections
  program since 1996.
• The APL has provided enrollment projections to
  110 district in Wisconsin, Illinois and
  Minnesota.
• On average 8-10 districts hire the APL annually.
• The APL works with different size districts in
  urban, rural, and suburban locals.

3
Enrollment Projections Process

• Background
• What is the resident enrollment history?
• How have birth rates changed over time?
• Is the Kindergarten population growing?
• Has there been a growth in housing development?
• Methodology
• What models do we use to project future students?
• Projections
• How many students will the district expect in
  future years?

4
Enrollment Projections Process

• Background
• What is the resident enrollment history?
• How have birth rates changed over time?
• Is the Kindergarten population growing?
• Has there been a growth in housing development
  and general population?

5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
Enrollment Projections Process

• Background
• What is the resident enrollment history?
• How have birth rates changed over time?
• Is the Kindergarten population growing?
• Has there been a growth in housing development
  and general population?

8
(No Transcript)
9
Enrollment Projections Process

• Background
• What is the resident enrollment history?
• How have birth rates changed over time?
• Is the Kindergarten population growing?
• Has there been a growth in housing development
  and general population?

10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
Enrollment Projections Process

• Background
• What is the resident enrollment history?
• How have birth rates changed over time?
• Is the Kindergarten population growing?
• Has there been a growth in housing development
  and the general population?

13
(No Transcript)
14
(No Transcript)
15
Enrollment Projections Process

• Background
• What is the resident enrollment history?
• How have birth rates changed over time?
• Is the Kindergarten population growing?
• Has there been a growth in housing development?
• Methodology
• What models do we use to project future students?

16
Grade Progression Ratio Method

• Ratios calculated for each grade pair.
• Then average ratio is calculated for each model.
• Average change ratios used to predict enrollment.
• Baseline example
• 2007 1st Graders x 1.013 2008 2nd Graders

Shaded progression ratios are excluded from
the Baseline Average
17
Models used to project enrollment

• Baseline Average
• Uses Baseline births and last 10 years of grade
  progression ratios.
• Last 5-Year Trend
• Uses Recent Trend births and grade progression
  ratios from last 5 years.
• Last 2-Year Trend
• Uses Recent Trend births and grade progression
  ratios from last 2 years.
• Kindergarten Regression
• Uses Kindergarten trends instead of birth trends
  and grade progression ratios from Last 5-Year
  Trend.

18
Enrollment Projections Process

• Background
• What is the resident enrollment history?
• How have birth rates changed over time?
• Is the Kindergarten population growing?
• Has there been a growth in housing development?
• Methodology
• What models do we use to project future students?
• Projections
• How many students will the district expect in
  future years?

19
(No Transcript)
20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
Individual School Projections

• Projections were completed for elementary and
  middle schools
• Resident enrollment history collected.
• Grade Progression Ratio method used.
• Less reliable than the District-wide projections

24
Models used to project enrollment

• Baseline Average
• Uses Baseline births and last 10 years of grade
  progression ratios.
• Last 5-Year Trend
• Uses Recent Trend births and grade progression
  ratios from last 5 years.
• Last 2-Year Trend
• Uses Recent Trend births and grade progression
  ratios from last 2 years.
• Kindergarten Regression
• Uses Kindergarten trends instead of birth trends
  and grade progression ratios from Last 5-Year
  Trend.

25
Model Comparison Individual Schools
26
Thank You!
Sarah Kemp Associate Researcher Applied
Population Laboratory UW-Madison Phone (608)
265-6189 E-mail kemp_at_wisc.edu