The Potential Confrontation with Iran

1
The Potential Confrontation with Iran
Israel says Iran has nuclear weapons ambitions it
will stop at any cost. The IAEA says Iran had no
such program, but the capability to set one up
via uranium enrichment technology. Israel
doesnt believe this or doesnt care. Any
Action By Israel Will Be Seen as, and probably
will be, US-Sponsored.
Irans key nuclear facilities (other facilities
include a site in the suburbs of Tehran).
2
Israels Weapons
F-15's The USA has given Israel 30 long-range
F-15's, at a cost of 48 million each.
Bunker Busters Israel bought 5,000
bunker-busters. Known by the military
designations GBU-27 or GBU-28, "bunker busters"
are guided by lasers or satellites, and can
penetrate up to 10 metres of earth and concrete.
They are normally armed with conventional
explosives, but to penetrate deep enough below
the ground to have a chance of destroying some of
the Iranian facilities (e.g. Natanz, 75 feet of
steel-reinforced concrete), it is likely that
low-yield (Hiroshima-size) nuclear warheads would
be used.
A 1-kt such nuclear weapon would/could kill tens
of thousands and a 100-kt weapon would/could kill
hundreds of thousands of people, depending on
nearby population, depth of the explosion, and
other local variables such as weather patterns..
3
A Potential Attack Plan
Israel will take off with three squadrons of six
F-15's - fly over Iraq, and hit Iran's three key
facilities. The US is expected to provide
satellite information and refueling as the
Israeli jets exit.
4
Pearl Harbour II or Tonkin Gulf II?
Iran will see this as an attack by America, and
will threaten to retaliate. They have Russian
made anti-ship missiles (Sunburn 22s) Which fly
at Mach 2.5 and which the US would have great
difficulty defending against. They may attack a
US carrier, of which there are several with their
support ships in the Gulf, or Israel may attack a
carrier with US complicity and Iran will get
blamed.
5
The Attack Is Possible Because of These Missiles
and the Location
The US Fifth fleet sits in the Persian Gulf -
which is a relatively-small bay surrounded by
rugged mountains and a 20-mile-wide entrance.
These missiles are nearly unstoppable, and the
5th fleet is in range of Iran's land facilities.
The Raduga Moskit anti-ship missile is perhaps
the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world.
The MOSKIT is designed to fly as low as 9 feet at
over 1,500 miles per hour, faster than a rifle
bullet. The missile uses a violent pop-up
maneuver for its terminal approach to throw off
Phalanx and other anti-missile defense. Iran
definitely has these missiles.Range - 90 MILES 
Size - 31.9 FEET Speed - MACH 2.5 AT SEA LEVEL
The Yakhonts 26 replaces the Sunburn 22. It is
even more difficult to avoid this missile. Iran
probably has these also. Range 200-250
Km. Speed 2.5 MACH
6
Irans Missiles (ctd.)
Iran has at least 300 of these. Although much
less deadly, they would be used in a mass
attack, and/or against non-military targets.
Iran Has Subs Equipped With Exocet Missiles
7
Escalation

• Because Iran is already at total war footing, the
  attacks will escalate out of control in a matter
  of days
• Israel hits Iran's nuclear facilities
• Iran goes to Alert One
• A US Carrier is hit, and true or not, the US
  blames Iran
• US hits Iran's navy in the northern Persian Gulf
• Iran attacks with most of it's missiles.
• Iran has already calculated their response, and
  they realize their only option is a massive
  attack.

Iran is sitting on a stockpile of Exocet, Sunburn
22 and SS-NX-26 Yakhonts missiles. The Fifth
Fleet sits at Qatar, and it is within range of
the Sunburn-22 and Yakhonts.   The 5th Fleet
sits in a lake surrounded by Iran's rugged
mountains, and could be decimated by the
missiles. Other US fleets will arrive in the
Indian Ocean, but will be greatly handicapped as
the straits of Hormuz will be defended by
hundreds of Exocets, many of them in embedded
sites or on mobile launchers in the mountains on
Irans coast. Irans Revolutionary Guards also
have plans to defend/close the Straits with
hundreds of smaller missile-armed patrol-boats.
8
Iraq Insurgency

• At the same time, the Iraqi insurgents will begin
  a counter- offensive, including groups with close
  ties to Iran currently in uneasy alliance with
  the US. A major attack on the Green Zone could
  take out most of Iraq's foreign administrators.
  It's very possible that the Iraq occupation could
  turn even more deadly and costly.  
• Add to this offensives on Iraq's isolated towns,
  and the occupiers would be in a multiple
  quagmire.
• The so-called US surge (20,000 more troops) is
  probably related to this scenario of an Iran
  attack, rather than any realistic notion of
  defeating the resistance. In other words, its an
  anticipatory defensive move, to shore up their
  position in Iraq. Even then, the numbers may be
  inadequate even to hold what they now have.

9
Final Consequences?

• Flow Of Oil Stops
• With enough anti-ship missiles, the Iranians can
  halt tanker traffic through Hormuz for weeks,
  even months. Some 15 million barrels of oil
  (worth 600 million currently) navigate this
  strait every day.
• With the flow of oil from the Gulf curtailed, the
  price of a barrel of crude will skyrocket on the
  world market. Within days, the global economy
  will probably slide into recession.

• Nuclear War?
• The US will have three choices
• go to the UN for peace
• or escalate to an ground war to invade the
  Iranian side of the Straits (which they do not
  have enough troops for, due to Iraq and
  Afghanistan)
• or an all-out nuclear attack on Iran.