Facing our Future combining idealism with realism

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Facing our Futurecombining idealism with realism

• Kevin Hurst
• Marketing Director

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Onyx

• A private contractors point of view
• one of the leading private players in the UK
  municipal waste market
• experience since first days of CCT
• real exposure to the business
• international benchmarking experience

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Facing our Future

• Current status
• The future - what lies ahead how will we cope?
• The spread of options offered - realistic
  idealism

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UK Municipal Waste Market

• Constant growth during the past five years -
  average of 2.3
• Contributing factors
• Number of households
• Lifestyle
• GDP
• Population

Source DEFRA, Onyx
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Municipal Waste per Capita

• Constant growth during the past five years -
  annual average of 2.8
• Greater than the overall waste market growth
• Population continues to be more wasteful

Source DEFRA, Onyx
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UK Household Waste Volumesper Capita - 1991 to
2001
Ten year increase of 20
Population increase 3.6 GDP increase 70.0
Source National Statistics 2002,DEFRA
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UK/USA Household Waste Volumes - 2001

• UK inhabitants produce 503kg of household waste
  per person per year - among the highest volume in
  Europe
• The USA per capita for recycling is almost four
  times greater than the UKs 57kg

UK USA
Source EPA, DEFRA
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Realism

• GDP and waste production are intrinsically locked
  together
• No country has been able to disconnect this
  upward evolution
• Western Europe follows USA behaviour

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UK Population / HouseholdsEstimates

• 7.3 decade growth
• Occupancy down to 2.36 from 2.45

• 3.3 decade growth
• Peak expected in 2040

Source National Statistics 2002
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Social Trends

• Population life expectancy increasing
• Births remaining constant
• Housing stock growing - more home alone
• Less terraced housing - more home ownership
• Disposable income increasing
• Higher levels of social activity - more free time
• gardening (more green waste)
• more takeouts (pre-pack meals)
• time is the essence but there is less time for
  civism

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UK Municipal Waste Market Estimates

• Waste volumes increasing
• Estimate 39 million tonnes by 2006 (UK municipal
  waste) - 15 increase over current levels.

Source DEFRA, Onyx
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Annual AverageBin Content

• Paper/board 29
• Green waste 21
• Food waste 16
• Plastic 13
• Glass 7
• Other 14

Source North West Environmental Trust, November
2001
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Moving Goalposts

• Bin content is highly seasonal in certain waste
  streams
• green waste moves from 6.1 (winter) to 29.9
  (spring)
• food waste moves from 21.8 (winter) to 12.6
  (spring)
• What do we do with the resource during low
  periods ?
• To comply at any time we will need to oversize
• Green waste and food waste expected to increase
  in volume
• Service providers must be very flexible to
  provide an economic waste collection/recycling
  service that is sustainable

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Inhouse / Private Enterprise
Refuse Collection Contract Volume Market Share-
England 2001
Source Onyx
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Inhouse/Private Enterprise

• Current
• high risk (cost) to win
• no sanity in market share (only vanity)
• pressure from
• more regulation (transport)
• HS concerns
• Union claims
• driver shortage
• full employment
• fuel/insurance costs out of control
• lack of flexibility to pay the going rate

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Inhouse/Private Enterprise

• The Future
• less players/less choice - estimate a 5 swing to
  DSO control of refuse collection contracts (70/30
  split) by 2006
• selective tendering - No more Martini approach
• An integrated approach only occurs in isolated
  cases (Hampshire, IoW Sheffield) - the
  practice will spread

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An Integrated Approach

• An industry buzz statement but has a double
  meaning/requirement
• a range of collection treatment methods used to
  achieve an objective
• consumers, government and service partners must
  work in harmony

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Idealism

• How are we going to cope with push and pull -
  increased volumes of waste and more stringent EU
  regulation
• General consensus
• reduce - reuse ?
• recycle
• recover

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Look global but ...

• Complex and serious situation - 21st century
  issue
• No catchall answer
• Each option has its place
• Waste is a local issue..
• . with
  local solutions
• We should never forget this when peering over our
  neighbours fence

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Sustainable Development

• Very fashionable
• But not a new tune!
• We in the waste industry have been singing the
  chorus for some time
• Sustainability at what cost ?
• Will the public pay?
• MORI/ESTET research shows that cost is very
  misunderstood
• education
• communication

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Sustainability

• Sustainability needs markets plus the outcome
  needs to be less environmentally intrusive than
  the original starting point
• Thinking acting local
• Modern tools can help dispel myths and give us
  the best route for local success
• impact studies
• life cycle analysis
• environmental impact studies

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Future Direction

• The waste industry does not have to define or
  orientate the UKs waste strategy
• We have to comply but not direct
• Waste industry should be viewed as
  consultants/partners - advising best
  methods/options
• Encourage viable options when the route looks
  like a cul de sac

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Landfill

• Landfill will as a disposal option remain
  dominant for the majority of waste producers
• Even with planned tax rises, landfill will still
  remain the most cost effective route
• Advanced technologically
• sealed/lined cells
• 95 of biogas is collected
• leachate treated to high standards

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Fact

• Countries that do not opt for incineration
  generally have high levels of landfill and low
  levels of recycling
• Portugal 87
• Greece 92

Source OECD Compendium 1999
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Energy from Waste

• We envy other nations recycling levels but
  ignore their integrated policies
• Does incineration block recycling ?
• The Green Gang - recycling/efw ratio
• Switzerland 42-45
• Germany 41-18
• Denmark 31-58
• Holland 46-42
• Sweden 37-38

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Energy from Waste

• Emission treatment accounts for- 50 of space and
  cost in a modern plant
• Modern plants - safer to live next to rather than
  the M25

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Recycling

• Slow progress (UK)
• USA municipalities with efw average 33 recycling
  rates compared with a national average of 28
• Onward and upward recycling rates are not forever

Source EPA, DEFRA
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Recycling

• Costs outweigh the benefits
• about turn/reduced recycling by major cities (New
  York, Paris)
• Topical issues
• landfill tax
• investment
• direct charging
• education

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Summary

• We face a serious challenge
• Targets are possible
• Need to tackle the sustainability issue
• No ideal mass plan - integrated local
• Investment needs to be made on facts not shifting
  sands
• Act now or we will pay later !