Bear River

1
Bear River Regional Council An Economic
Update (U.S., Utah, Box Elder, Cache Rich)
February 2009
2
(No Transcript)
3
Utah Components of Population Change
Source Utah Population Estimates Committee
4
Utah Unemployment Rate 1973 2008
Percent
Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics January
2009
5
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Utah 1986
2009
86
90
00
09
Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics January
2009
6
Utah Employment Change 1976 2010
22 Months
8 Months
8 Months
18 Months
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services
January 2009
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Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric
Change) 2008 2009
Natural Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof., and Business
Education and Health
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services
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Here in Box Elder, Cache, Rich Counties
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Population
10
Cache
2000-2008 Annual Growth Rate Box Elder 2.0 Cache
3.1 Rich 2.4
Box Elder
Source Governors Office of Planning Budget,
Demographic Economic Analysis Section September
2008.
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Employment
12
Cache
New Jobs Growth Rate 2006-2007 Box Elder
4.6 Cache 3.8 Rich 5.2
Box Elder
Source Utah Dept. Workforce Services, Workforce
Information September 2008.
13
Box Elder County Employment
06
00
01
02
03
99
04
05
07
08
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services
September 2008
14
Box Elder County Employment Growth Rates
02
03
99
00
01
04
05
06
07
08
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services
September 2008
15
Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing
Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008
2008 third quarter data is preliminary. Source
Utah Department of Workforce Services Feb. 2009
16
Cache County Employment
02
03
99
04
00
01
05
06
07
08
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services
September 2008
17
Cache County Employment Growth Rates
02
03
99
00
01
05
04
06
07
08
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services
September 2008
18
Cache County Year-Over Manufacturing
Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008
2008 third quarter data is preliminary. Source
Utah Department of Workforce Services Feb. 2009
19
Rich County Employment
02
03
99
04
00
01
05
06
07
08
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services
September 2008
20
Rich County Employment Growth Rates
02
03
99
00
01
04
05
06
07
08
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services
September 2008
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Unemployment
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State, Box Elder, Cache, and Rich Unemployment
Rates
State
December 2008 Box Elder 5.2 Cache 3.2
Rich 2.9 Utah 4.3 U.S. 7.2
Box Elder
Cache
Rich

• Source Utah Department of Workforce Services

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Construction
24
Bear River Counties Construction Dwelling Permits
Source Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
University of Utah.
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Bear River Counties Construction Permit Values
(Millions of )
Source Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
University of Utah.
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Bear River Construction Activity Change Jan-Sept
2007 to Jan-Sept 2008
Dwelling Permits
Total Const.Valuation
Source Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
University of Utah.
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Outlook
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Jobs State Outlook Continued slowing to 0.2 in
2008 and going negative 2.3 in
2009. Growth around 0.4 in 2010. Box
Elder Sliding to 0.0 job growth in 2008.
Slipping to -2.0 to 2.5 in
2009. Manufacturing the key.
Cache Job growth of 1.5 to 2.0 for 2008.
Growth negative in 2009 at about
1.0 to 2.0 in 2009. Manufacturing job losses
may continue. Rich
Very slow growth, if any. Watch Construction.
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Unemployment Increasing in all counties. Box
Elder unemployment at 4.0 to 5.0 in
2009 Cache joblessness in the 3.5 to 4.5
range in 2009 Rich unemployment 2.0 to 3.0 in
2009 Wages upward pressure subsiding as
economy slows. Spending Slow and cautious.
As soon as consumers perceive better
times they will spend. Issues of income growth,
job security, and inflation (energy prices).
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Next Topic DWS Occupational Projections Utah
Job Trends in Metro Cache 2006-2016 How do we
make projections? Briefly, please. Industry and
occupational projections made biennially for a 10
yr period. Based on econometric models of how
the market functions. Industry employment
projections made for 95 separate industries,
statewide and in 5 geographic areas in
Utah. Employers provide occupational staffing
patterns from surveys (not forecasts). Occupation
al pattern applied to each industrys projected
employment to produce estimate of future
occupational employment. Occupational employment
by summed across industries to get total.
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Highest Paying Utah Metro Occupations with 100
or More Annual Openings, 2006 - 2016
Number of Annual Openings
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
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Utah Metro Occupations with Most Annual Openings
2006-2016
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
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Cache County Occupations with Most Annual
Openings 2006-2016
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
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Utah Metro Occupations with the Highest
Employment 2006
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
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Cache County Occupations with the Highest
Employment 2006
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
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Utah Metro Fastest Growing Utah Occupations with
100 or More Annual Openings, 2006 - 2016
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
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Cache County Fastest Growing Utah Occupations
with 30 or More Annual Openings, 2006 - 2016
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
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(No Transcript)
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John Mathews

• Northern Regional Economist
• Department of Workforce Services
• (jobs.utah.gov)
• johnmathews_at_utah.gov
• [phone]
• Powerpoint slide show at
• http//jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/publicat.html
  
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