Increasing Water Supplier Leverage on Land Use

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Increasing Water Supplier Leverage on Land Use

• John D. Wiener
• University of Colorado Institute of Behavioral
  Science
• Modification of Presentation to Universities
  Council on Water Resources
• 19 June 2014, Boston
• john.wiener_at_Colorado.edu
• www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener
• Note references and some additional discussion
  are provided in speakers notes sections.

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Disclaimer! jumpy talk to take advantage

• Extraordinary conference and the USDA Ag track
  is excellent too! ALREADY
• Thanks, Dr Honeycutt! -- 70 of Agricultural
  Land in the US is private, so changes,
  adaptation, resilience will be voluntary! (See
  also NRC 2010)
• Thanks, Dr. Lettenmaier and Dr. Hirsch Planning
  in Uncertainty With Trends
• Thanks, Dr. Vigerstol of TNC we need more than
  we can buy but academics can help specify the
  basis for COLLABORATIVE and SELF-INTERESTED DEALS
• Thanks, Dr. Huber-Lee and Dr. Lall We NEED to
  be aware of the BIG picture
• this is a water conference, but agriculture gets
  more than 80 of consumptive use in Western US ,
  and more than 90 globally the last oasis
  (Postel 1992)
• Forrester ? Meadows et al Limits to Growth ?
  Turner (2008) etc.

Note for the website version This is thanks to
some of the most impressive presentations at the
meeting, before this one was offered. The UCOWR
organizers provided a particularly effective
structure and sequence.
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Why increase water supplier leverage on land
use? Where IS this going?

• To GET TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY in that
  Water-Food-Energy nexus, there are some beginning
  points for thinking LONG-TERM
• And how to transition? How to make improve
  damage control?
• Private ownership of almost all farmland so
  voluntary
• WATER SUPPLIERS THINK, FINANCE and ACT LONG-TERM
• WATER RATE PAYERS are also consumers, recreators,
  live in places, enjoy good air and good water
  ALL of the ecosystem services are directly or
  indirectly benefits to the rate-payers
• RACE RAPID DESTRUCTION VERSUS LOCAL GREENING
  CITIES MUST HELP!
• Put on your own oxygen mask first A sad new
  family motto

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The Real Goal Conserve inherent agricultural
capacity and ecosystem services

• A working definition
• Capacity of agricultural resources, including
  water, soils, techniques, crafts, and skills,
  live true-breeding seeds and livestock, to
  produce food, feed and fiber with inputs only
  from local and regional agricultural and related
  activity.
• INHERENT capacity is greater than utility as a
  substrate for a stew of fertilization and
  biocides.

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Beginning Points -- Three Keys to Transition?

• Design for maximum economic yield (not maximum
  gross output, but best return on investment of
  inputs) for the long planning horizon!
• RIGHT-SIZING best scale for landscape may not
  be best scale for one farm energy or for export)
  economies of scale, not consolidation and
  simplifying!
• GOAL INTEGRATED MULTIFUNCTIONAL AGROECOLOGY
  SETS of right-sized operations, resources, and
  projects to improve resilience (e.g., sets of
  renewable energy and cooperating groups of
  farms/ranches). (long note!)
• Integrated livestock and crops and energy and
  all the other outputs!
• Multifunctional many outputs, try to design for
  all the outputs
• Agroecology use the whole environment rather
  than opposing it!
• THE BIG ASSESSMENTS TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE
  NEEDED!
• WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF YOUR FAMILY OWNED ALL THE
  PIECES?

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Maximum economic yield rather than maximum
revenue getting off the treadmill of maximum
possible production makes sense!
A GRAPHIC VIEW OF RESILIENCE
Cost of making maximum harvest
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A few points on economics just to mention

• Efficiency is definable on a distribution of
  resources it is an adjective, not a noun.
• FIELD SCALE Vs FARM SCALE Vs LANDSCAPE SCALE Vs
  REGIONAL SCALE ???
• SHORT TERM RATIONALITY --Clark, 1973
  Economics of Extinction Positive discount rate
  reduce the future from far ahead to present
  value
• A century or two out, values are trivial not
  much good decades out!
• Discount the future PLUS all that uncertainty?
• Evaluation is definable within a general
  equilibrium, but not transferable to a different
  equilibrium with reallocated resources and price
  structures Norgaard Howarth 1992, etc
• Benefit-Cost Analysis is NOT adequate for the
  long term!
• We cant just do the math! THINK SOIL
  FORMATION and WATER QUALITY/CONTAMINATION

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Two Sets of Problems Peri-urban/Irrigated
small vs BIG ag

• For the small operations Still over 50 of farm
  assets, but 16 of sales and 7 of net farm
  income HIGH VULNERABILITY
• Urbanization, rural residential development
  tremendous land and water loss!
• Inability to finance transition for resilience to
  climate and markets!
• For the Big conventional Ag Sustainability
  Doubtful
• Erosion of soil, soil quality losses already very
  serious!
• Herbicide and other resistance evolving fast no
  till at risk!
• 25 years (1982-2007) same acres but 22 are
  not the same acres! DISPLACEMENT FROM BEST
  LANDthen ethanol-spurred sodbusting again!
• FOR EVERYONE CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE
  higher intensity precipitation events, more
  frequent extremes with cumulative impacts
  destructive sequences (National Climate
  Assessment 3, May 2014, Chaps 3 and 6 Walthall
  et al. 2012 USDA input report).
• SOIL EROSION ESTIMATED TO COST IOWA 1 BILLION
  IN YIELD May 2014

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Slide of aerial photos, by Tom Dickinson, IBS and
Geography, U of Colorado
IRRIGATION REPLACES AND EXPANDS RIPARIAN
CONDITIONS
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The green area includes land unintentionally
wetted by irrigation return flows and conveyance
loss -- it is important habitat and filtration
and de-nitrification, pollinator, IPM refugia
Natural? No hybrid ecology.
Data source Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper,
2005. Map by Thomas W. Dickinson, Institute of
Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at
Boulder
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Conversion of Best Farm Land Near Loveland, in
Weld County, CO
I-25
1997
Boyd Lake
One square mile
BLUE CURVES IRRIGATION CANALS
Slide by Tom Dickinson, IBS and Geography,
Source National Agriculture Imagery Program
(NAIP),USDA-FSA Aerial Photography Field Office
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Conversion of Best Farm Land near Loveland, in
Weld County, CO
One square mile
Source National Agriculture Imagery Program
(NAIP) Slide by Tom Dickinson, Institute of
Behavioral Science, CU-Boulder
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Conversion of Best Farm Land near Loveland, in
Weld County, CO
One square mile
Source National Agriculture Imagery Program
(NAIP) Slide by Tom Dickinson, Institute of
Behavioral Science, CU-Boulder
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Conversion of Best Farm Land near Loveland, in
Weld County, CO
One square mile
Source National Agriculture Imagery Program
(NAIP) Slide by Tom Dickinson, Institute of
Behavioral Science, CU-Boulder
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2007 publication
This is where the best land and water is or was
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New view, 2013 color Scheme flipped Here,
green is influence And brown is not
http//www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ urban-influ
ence-codes/documentation. aspx.U6KXFSimWns
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American Farmland Trust Farming on the Edge
series of reports including 2006, Sokolow, on
interactions of conservation easements and local
planning Esseks et al. 2009 Case studies if
15 urbanizing counties,
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Consumer Demand Drives Growth in the Organic
Sector (08 Feb 13 Chart of Note) -- THE RACE IS
ON! Who gets what they want?And, there is huge
growth in direct sales, farmers markets and food
hubs
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Back to pre-emergent see, post-emergents.
Tillage Stay with the package But make the
package more complicated And, see National
Research Council 2012 Summit On managing
resistant weeds
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From the joint statement of ASA, CSSA, SSA
habitat of soil biota diversity abundance
While there is still soil to save!
downpours increased soil erosion
affect soil chemistry and biology
water retention capacity soil organic matter
impacts of intense rainfall and drought
See also Crop Science Society of America, 2011,
Position Statement on Crop Adaptation To Climate
Change.
NEW USDA Technical Information Bulletin No.
1935 Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture
Walthall et al. , 2012 and National Climate
Assessment, May 2014 etc
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Toward Respect for Ecosystems what if we lived
in them?

• The original analysis Von Thunen, 1826, The
  Isolated State (inventor of marginal productivity
  economics what is a functional region without
  external inputs?) What makes the most sense?
• More recent What does sustainable farming look
  like? E.g. Wes Jacksons Land Institute farm in
  Salina, KS looks pretty good even with price
  subsidy distortions from uncharged externalities
  (Baum 2009)
• Sustainable diversified, integrated farming look
  pretty good (Kremen et al. special series in
  Ecology and Society (2012)). U.S. vs European
  traditions (Carr et al. 2012 Renewable Ag. and
  Food Systems special issue see also RAFS 23(4)
  2008).
• But, big gaps in research on sustainable
  agriculture as a separate business (Seufert et
  al. 2012) SO, WHAT IF NOT SEPARATE?

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More tid-bits on ecosystem services values

• Frisvold and Konyar 2013 reviewed other work,
  also
• Nitrate REMOVAL from drinking water costs US
  1.7 B/year Remove 1 from source water, save
  gt120M/yr.. See also USDA CEAP summaries
• Water-related benefits of preventing
  sediments/erosion 1.5 to 7/ton
• Land Trust Alliance, American Farmland Trust,
  National Assn. Homebuilders
• Open space costs 0.35/ 1 in tax revenue
• Residential development costs 1.16/1 in tax
  revenue (Colorado, 2003 1.62/1!)
• Consumer will to pay for trails, open space,
  amenity, quality of life
• Trust for Public Land, 2010 Long Island NY
  10-fold ROI on Agricultural Conservation
  Easements gt 23 States now purchase some tax
  credits, too
• Philadelphia estimates that it saves gt132M/yr
  from ecosystem services
• So the right thing looks better even with BCA
  why is it rare?

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• This system provides more than a Billion gallons
  a day
• And avoids very expensive filtration and water
  treatment
• Costs by control of pollution in the watersheds.
• The upper watershed in the Catskills was first
  developed
• by the City in 1905, now programs to maintain
  water quality
• Whole farm plans
• Forest Management plans
• Conservation Easements
• Payment for ecosystem services BUT S
• Government program assistances septic design,
  salting, economic
• development smart growth!
• An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure!
• http//www.nycwatershed.org/aw_description.html

http//www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/ma
plevels_wide.shtml
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Thinking out of the farm-scale box Toward
Agroecology/ecosystems

• If it was just losing the water, why did we lose
  so many farms in the wet years?
• Often asked not answered often
• My argument farmers and ranchers need to use all
  their assets, with water as key, AND
• Cities and water managers are critical partners
• Where states dont act or are self-crippled
• Citizen have far wider interests than water rates
• Water suppliers have foresight!
• And cities have cheap long-term capital
• IWRM with full monitoring and adaptive management
  and long-term participatory planning and great
  design Ideal, but meanwhile

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Soil and Water Conservation Society , Ankeny,
Iowa 2010 THIS IS THE SOURCE on
disproportionality of impacts on water from some
operations. But, now, add disproportionality in
glyphosate resistance management. Disproportiona
lity is about the need to target the bad actors
the worst sources WHAT ABOUT BENEFITS FROM
TAKING LANDSCAPE SERIOUSLY?
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The Landscape Scale BENEFITS!!!

• Landscape scales for ECOSYSTEM SERVICES , habitat
  values, connectivity AVOID ESA, RECOVER
  DIVERSITY, SUPPORT TRANSITIONS
• Farm INVESTMENT right-sizing in equipment and
  purchases
• Farm output marketing RISK MANAGEMENT and
  production sequencing to meet demands
• STABILIZE AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE! Be able to use
  a long-range planning horizon. (large set of
  references in speakers notes) PLACE TO INVEST
  IN!
• Resilience from flexibility of management
  organize to stop perforation and conversion of
  the best land -- Maybe climate info can
  stimulate?
• TIME TO GET OFF THE GRID!!! See Dosskey et al,
  various design for multifunctionality, for
  agroecology, for diversity and CUT LOSSES close
  the loops The rectangular land division is no
  longer sensible!

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A Blurry Continuum of Leverage A THOUSAND
THESES AWAIT YOUR MODELING!!!!
OWNERSHIP (single agency) PARTNERSHIP LEASE CONTRACT COMMON or PES? COMMUNITY SUPPORTED AGRICULTURE
Fee simple total JUST BUY IT As defined OWN IT BUT NOT ALONE Land for long term some places called ground lease for building investment Crops commonly VERY tightly controlled by Non-farm party 40 of US AG NOW! Non-farmer rights vary with deal commonly a variable portion of mixed outputs
Permanent easement usually RIGID land uses, especially if TAX Breaks involved (Fed Estate, State) CAN BE Flexible and Contingent Farming Rights often called plain leasing, for specified duration usually a few years or less Share of crops, historically tightly controlled by land owner Can include obligations beyond payment or a mix Farmers set the terms
Transferred Development Rights Multiple Parties, Multiple Interests (can implement a coalition Water Banks/Etc -- where legally allowed wide variation, purposes may be constrained, or duration Payment for Ecosystem Services can be contract or more like partnership Can include access for amenity, recreation, and philanthropy
E.g. TDR for Smart Growth Clustering E.g. Water sharing permanent deal E.g. Idaho Snake River. Working water markets E.g. New York City watershed protection for gt1 BG/day Hundreds are florescing! Often also with direct sales such
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Locator Map Bessemer is Adjacent to and East of
Pueblo Colorado
An example of thinking out of the farm-scale
box This is some of the best fruit and
vegetable land in the Western U.S., but it is
being fragmented for development and the water
rights are of great value
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(No Transcript)
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Canola for (1/2) of Alfalfa
Halved the Alfalfa area, and substituted for
Canola
THE TIMING OF WATER APPLICATION HAS ECONOMIC
VALUES AS WELL AS THE VOLUME This provides a
lot of early-season water that might be valuable
for municipal supply as well as for other
higher-value crops Lots to explore!
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Canola (just read Price-stabilized biodiesel
fuel and high-protein feed) for Corn
Halved the Alfalfa area, and substituted for
Canola
Putting in winter canola instead of the corn
(4130 A) makes water available early and later
in the season this may be what the municipality
needs.
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Nobody in the drivers seat this is
development of some of the best farm land in
the US