Multi Agency Ecosystem research

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Multi Agency Ecosystem research

• International Pacific Halibut Commission

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Background and motivation

• In January 1997, IPHC committed to a 3-year
  Fisheries Oceanography project
• Motivation was realization that observed trends
  in halibut size and recruitment not explainable
  by stock size
• Changes appear to parallel trends noted in other
  marine populations of the North Pacific
• Goal to better understand factors affecting
  growth and recruitment

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Biological changes in the halibut stock
Pacific halibut biomass and recruitment, 1943-1997
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Biological changes in the halibut stock
Kodiak females - size at age by decade
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Fish. Oceanog. investigations at the IPHC

• IPHC and the Thompson-Burkenroad debate
• IPHC has long term datasets to contribute to
  research community
• One person hired as FO investigator
• Focus of work was collaboration with other groups
  investigating ecosystem variability
• Initial emphasis on environmental forcing of
  population dynamics

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Regime shifts in the North Pacific
Major marine populations showing abrupt
population shifts in mid-late 1970s

• Alaskan salmon
• Pacific halibut
• Gulf of Alaska zooplankton
• Arrowtooth flounder
• Canada geese, Pacific NW

• West Coast salmon
• California Current zooplankton
• Alaskan shrimp
• Alaskan king crab
• Steller sea lion

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Organizations engaged in NP ecosystem research
CRiSP Columbia River Salmon Passage
NPAFC North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission
OCC Ocean Carrying Capacity
BESIS
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Active collaborations with IPHC

• IPHC-organized monthly meeting of Regime
  shift/ecosystem response group.
• Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Group
• Bering Sea Ecosystem Research Plan
• PICES involvement at several levels
• Arctic Research Initiative
• NOAA/ESDIM data rescue project
• El Niño and beyond Year 2000 symposium

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Ongoing IPHC ecosystem-oriented research

• North Pacific climate variability in 20th century
  - w/ UW, NOAA
• Ocean Bottom Properties database - PMEL
• Density-dependent and independent control of
  halibut growth and recruitment
• Patterns in BS/GOA groundfish recruitment and
  coastwide salmon production - AFSC, UW
• Retrospective analysis of growth rates in halibut
  and sablefish - OSU, ADFG, UAK
• Stable Isotope analysis of halibut otoliths -
  PBS, EVOS
• Basin-wide zooplankton production - Univ. of
  Tokyo

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Where is ecosystem research heading?

• GLOBEC NEP Goal To understand the effects of
  climate variability and climate change on the
  distribution, abundance and production of marine
  animals (including commercially important living
  marine resources) in the eastern North Pacific.
  To embody this understanding in diagnostic and
  prognostic ecosystem models, capable of capturing
  the ecosystem response to major climatic
  fluctuations.

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Use of ecosystem research findings

• Force a paradigm shift in viewing how fisheries
  populations fluctuate - multiple influences, no
  steady-state or unique maximum sustained yield
  level
• Merge ecosystem analysis into models of
  population dynamics and stock assessment
• determine robust harvest strategies given general
  understanding of climate impact on recruitment,
  mortality, fecundity, etc.
• use particular knowledge of current climate
  status and trend to predict future
  recruitment/growth trends
• must overcome dichotomy between fisheries
  modelers and oceanographers, ecologists

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IPHC-organized research group on
climate-fisheries interactions

• Monthly meetings held at IPHC starting summer
  1997
• 20-30 local scientists (fed, univ, private,
  press) present and discuss ecosystem research
  with climate focus
• Some recent issues
• Shift in GOA small mesh research trawl catches
• North Pacific climate variability since 1989
• NMFS strategic ocean research plan for salmon
• The role of climate in determining patterns of
  marine fish production the storage effect

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Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Group

• UW component of national research initiative to
  study the impact of climate on natural resources
• Research foci
• What time scales of climate variability most
  affect natural resources
• El Niño (3-7), Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  (50-70)
• How to incorporate climate forecasts into
  management

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Bering Sea Ecosystem Research Plan

• Joint NOAA, DOI, ADFG initiative motivated by
  prospect of Dinkum-Sands research funds (6-8 M)
• IPHC attended planning workshops, summarized past
  research efforts, helped draft plan
• Hope to fund some future Bering Sea research
  through this initiative

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PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization)

• Member of Regional Experiment (REX) task team
• Team that recommends comparable experiments for
  different PICES regions
• On organizing committee for Climate Change and
  Carrying Capacity Program
• PICES main foray into determining research
  direction for ecosystem studies of the North
  Pacific

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Arctic Research Initiative

• NOAA funded initiative to encourage ecosystem
  research in the Arctic region ( 1.5 M)
• IPHC on panel that reviewed, rated and
  recommended funded projects

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NOAA/ESDIM Data rescue project

• Cooperative project between AFSC, PMEL and IPHC
• Objective is to rescue historically collected
  hydrographic data for the North Pacific that is
  presently undigitized.
• IPHC has notebook and log data back to 1933
• Data will be added to historical water column
  properties database being maintained at IPHC
• Valuable data for retrospective and historical
  studies

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El Niño and beyond Year 2000 Symposium

• El Nino and Beyond A conference on Pacific
  climate variability and marine ecosystem impacts,
  from the Tropics to the Arctic
• IPHC on steering committee to design and organize
  large ( 300 participants) symposium
• Bring together physical and biological scientists
  to synthesize evidence for ecosystem variability
  and elucidate causal mechanisms